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A summary explanation of London’s labour market in the recent
A summary explanation of London’s labour market in the recent
What the summary covers:
What the summary covers:
UK Background
UK Background
UK GDP fell faster, and further, in the 2008 recession than in the
UK GDP fell faster, and further, in the 2008 recession than in the
London Background
London Background
Like the UK, London’s GVA also fell faster in the 2008 recession than
Like the UK, London’s GVA also fell faster in the 2008 recession than
Why?
Why?
Reduction in relative wages
Reduction in relative wages
Reduction in relative wages
Reduction in relative wages
Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures
Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures
Actual business failures
Actual business failures
Actual business failures
Actual business failures
Actual business failures
Actual business failures
Actual business failures
Actual business failures
Looking forward summary
Looking forward summary
Factors that may slow any improvement in the labour market as the
Factors that may slow any improvement in the labour market as the
ANY QUESTIONS
ANY QUESTIONS
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A summary explanation of Londons labour market in the recent recession

содержание презентации «A summary explanation of Londons labour market in the recent recession.ppt»
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1A summary explanation of London’s 14Reduction in relative wages. 1. Reduction
labour market in the recent recession. in relative wages. High. High. High. High.
Analysis by Melisa Wickham Presented by High. 2. Strong corporate profitability
Jonathan Hoffman. and low rate of business failures. 2.
2What the summary covers: Looking Strong corporate profitability and low
forward: How might the factors that have rate of business failures. 2. Strong
supported the labour market thus far corporate profitability and low rate of
change going forward? How might this make business failures. 2. Strong corporate
the recovery from the recent recession profitability and low rate of business
different from the recovery in the 1990s failures. 2. Strong corporate
and 1980s recessions? Background: How does profitability and low rate of business
the economy in the recent recession, in failures. High. High. High. High. High. 3.
the UK and London, compare to that in the Growth in the public sector. 3. Growth in
1990s and 1980s recessions? How has the public sector. 3. Growth in the public
GDP/GVA moved? How has unemployment and sector. 3. Growth in the public sector. 3.
employment moved? Possible explanations: Growth in the public sector. High. High.
Why has the labour market in the UK and High. High. High. 4. Labour market
London been more resilient during the structural change. 4. Labour market
recent recession so far? structural change. 4. Labour market
3Note: It is not presumed that the full structural change. 4. Labour market
impact of the 2008 recession on the labour structural change. 4. Labour market
market has necessarily been experienced structural change. Medium. Medium. Medium.
yet. For a more detailed examination and Medium. Medium. 5. Reduction in working
explanations see the main report: ‘Working hours. 5. Reduction in working hours. 5.
Paper 44: London’s labour market in the Reduction in working hours. 5. Reduction
recent recession’, GLA Economics: in working hours. 5. Reduction in working
http://www.london.gov.uk/publication/worki hours. Medium. Medium. Medium. Medium.
g-paper-44-londons-labour-market-recent-re Medium. 6. Less economic structural
ession. change. 6. Less economic structural
4UK Background. BACKGROUND. change. 6. Less economic structural
5UK GDP fell faster, and further, in change. 6. Less economic structural
the 2008 recession than in the 1990s and change. 6. Less economic structural
1980s recessions: This is equal to a change. Medium. Medium. Medium. Medium.
steady rate of decline of 2.0% a year. Medium. 7. Measurement error. 7.
This is equal to a steady rate of decline Measurement error. 7. Measurement error.
of 3.7% a year. And in the 1990s it fell 7. Measurement error. 7. Measurement
by 2.5% over 5 quarters. In the 1980s GDP error. Low. Low. Low. Low. Low.
fell by 4.7% over 5 quarters. This is 15Reduction in relative wages. Have
equal to a steady rate of decline of 4.3% workers accepted larger pay cuts/smaller
a year. In 2008, GDP fell by 6.4% over 6 pay rises to reduce their risks of
quarters. Source: ONS, GDP chained volume unemployment?
measure, constant 2006 prices, SA. 16Compared to the 1980s and 1990s
6But the claimant count rate has not recessions it does not seem that wages in
risen as much in the 2008 recession as it the UK have fallen sufficiently to
did in the 1990s and 1980s recessions: The compensate for lower firm output.
claimant count rate has increased so far Reduction in relative wages. Source: ONS
by only 2.1 percentage points. And had (ROYJ, MGRN, MGRZ, ABML), GLA Economics
increased by 5.4 percentage points in calculation.
1980s recession. But by the same time had 17However………. Looking forward, slow
increased by 4.7 percentage points in employment growth during the recovery
1990s recession. Note: Claimant count should minimise pressure on wage rises in
denominator = claimant count + WFJ Source: the UK. However, Sterling is unlikely to
ONS. fall much further, so further falls in the
7Employee jobs have also not fallen by relative unit labour costs in the UK seem
as much in the 2008 recession as they did unlikely. Reduction in relative wages.
in the 1990s recession: Employee job Source: IMF.
numbers have fallen by 4.3% so far during 18Strong corporate profitability and low
this recession. But by the same time fell rate of business failures.
by 6.1% in the 1990s recession. Source: 19Strong corporate profitability and low
WFJ, ONS. rate of business failures. 1990s peak.
8London Background. 2008 peak. Source: PSNFC net rate of
9Like the UK, London’s GVA also fell return (%, SA), ONS.
faster in the 2008 recession than in the 20Actual business failures. Compared to
1990s recession: This is equal to a steady the rise in the 1980s and 1990s recessions
rate of decline of 2.8% a year. This is and given the fall in GDP, the rise in
equal to a steady rate of decline of 4.1% company liquidations has been modest
a year. London’s output fell by 6.2% over during the 2008 recession. Looking
9 quarters in the 1990s recession. And has forward: Government support is gradually
fallen by 6.1% over 6 quarters in the being withdrawn and this could make future
recent recession. Source: GVA at basic liquidations a risk, however Forecast low
prices, constant 2005 prices, Experian. real interest rates in the near term
10And like the UK, the claimant count should continue to support business
has not risen as much in the 2008 survival. Contributing factors: Bank of
recession as it did in the 1990s and 1980s England’s monetary policy, and Government
recessions: But by the same time in the policy. 1990s. 2008. 1980s. Strong
1990s it had risen by 6.5 percentage corporate profitability and low rate of
points. And by 4.1 percentage points in business failures. Note: Historic business
the 1980s recession. The claimant count failures are based on data for compulsory
rate in London has risen by 1.7 percentage liquidations, creditors’ voluntary
points so far in this recession. Note: liquidations, administrative
Claimant count denominator = claimant receiverships, administrative orders and
count + WFJ Source: ONS. company voluntary arrangements from The
11Employee jobs have also not fallen by Insolvency Service.
as much in the 2008 recession as they did 21Exclude jobs in public administration,
in the 1990s recession: But by the same defence, education, health and social work
time fell by 11.1% in the 1990s recession. from the total number of jobs in the
Has fallen by 3.5% so far in this economy…….. Growth in public sector.
recession. Source: WFJ, Nomis. Source: Workforce Jobs, ONS.
12Background summary: London. UK. 22Looking forward, the OBR estimates
Peak-to-trough output decline (%)1. that public sector employment will fall by
Peak-to-trough output decline (%)1. around 400,000 by 2015/16. This means that
Peak-to-trough output decline (%)1. 2008. public sector employment will contract at
6.1. 6.4. 1990s. 6.2. 2.5. 1980s. -. 4.6. a similar compound rate over the next 5
Constant annual growth rate (over years as the private sector experienced
peak-to-trough period) (%) 1. Constant between 2008 and 2010. However, a lot of
annual growth rate (over peak-to-trough this increase is due to the incorporation
period) (%) 1. Constant annual growth rate of financial institutions (e.g. Lloyds)
(over peak-to-trough period) (%) 1. 2008. into the public sector. There has been a
-4.1. -4.3. 1990s. -2.8. -2.0. 1980s. -. large rise since the recession. Looking
-3.7. Percentage point change in claimant specifically at public sector employment
count rate2. Percentage point change in in the 2008 recession: Growth in public
claimant count rate2. Percentage point sector. Around 25% of the public sector
change in claimant count rate2. 2008. 1.7. employment increase between 2008 and 2010
2.1. 1990s. 6.5. 4.7. 1980s. 4.1. 5.4. was in London. Around 40% of this is due
Change in employee jobs numbers (%)3. to the reclassification of financial
Change in employee jobs numbers (%)3. institutions into the public sector. Note:
Change in employee jobs numbers (%)3. ‘Other public sector’ includes financial
2008. -3.5. -4.3. 1990s. -11.1. -6.1. corporations. In the timeframe above, RBoS
1980s. -. -. 1 London figures are derived and Lloyds were included in the 3rd
from Experian’s regional GVA estimates. UK quarter from UK output peak (2008 Q4).
figures are derived from ONS GDP Northern Rock was included prior to the
estimates. 2 From UK output peak to eleven GDP peak. Source: ONS.
quarters after. 3 For UK output peak to 23Looking forward summary. Factors that
ten quarters after. are likely to support the labour market
13Why? Why? further as the economy grows: Reduced
14Summary of analysis of possible relative wages Strong corporate
explanations: Possible explanations. profitability and low business failures
Possible explanations. Possible Lower economic structural change.
explanations. Possible explanations. 24Factors that may slow any improvement
Possible explanations. Likely contribution in the labour market as the economy grows:
to labour market strength during the 2008 Reduced working hours Labour market
recession so far. Likely contribution to structural change Reductions in public
labour market strength during the 2008 sector employment.
recession so far. Likely contribution to 25END. For a more detailed examination
labour market strength during the 2008 and explanations see the main report:
recession so far. Likely contribution to ‘Working Paper 44: London’s labour market
labour market strength during the 2008 in the recent recession’ by GLA Economics:
recession so far. Likely contribution to http://www.london.gov.uk/publication/worki
labour market strength during the 2008 g-paper-44-londons-labour-market-recent-re
recession so far. . . . 1. Reduction in ession.
relative wages. 1. Reduction in relative 26ANY QUESTIONS.
wages. 1. Reduction in relative wages. 1.
A summary explanation of Londons labour market in the recent recession.ppt
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