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Development Appraisal and Risk Property Development

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1Chapter 3 Development Appraisal and 8various components of value when
Risk Property Development (6th Edition) undertaking a property development?
Publisher: Routledge www.routledge.com Explain the relevance between the level of
Authors: Professor R.G. Reed and Dr S. profit/risk and the overall development.
Sims. 93.2 FINANCIAL EVALUATION. 3.2.2
23.1 INTRODUCTION. Assessing and Cash-Flow Method This model presents a
evaluating the financial viability of a more realistic and accurate assessment of
development constantly occurs throughout development costs and income against the
all stages of the development process. variable of time. It is the nature of
Many dynamic factors influence development property development that the timing of
and their status must be updated and cash-flows is irregular and uneven.
re-evaluated in light of the overall risk Cash-flow is critical due to the cost of
attached to the development. Risk is an repaying borrowing funds and the effect of
inherent and unavoidable part of the compound interest over an extended period
property development process and should be of time, therefore the potential to
assessed as part of the overall evaluation develop a property in phases can be a
process. The influence of uncertainly can major advantage for the overall viability
be contained in order to reduce the effect of the project. Some offices in high-rise
on risk. buildings can be let or even sold off and
33.2 FINANCIAL EVALUATION. 3.2.1 allow the new owners to occupy the lower
Conventional Techniques Conventional floors, even though the upper floors or
techniques of identifying the various other sections of the building are still
components of value in a proposed under construction. The model enables the
development are relatively straightforward developer to adjust for changes in
based on using a form of ‘residual’ interest rates easily over the development
valuation. This type of model is designed period or for different sources of
to isolate an individual component of a finance.
development such as the level of 103.2 FINANCIAL EVALUATION. 3.2.3
risk/return or the land value, and assess Discounted Cash-Flow Method A discounted
their individual ‘unknown’ value when cash-flow (DCF) can examine different
information about all of the other cash-flow models; they are all discounted
variables are known. Two primary types of back (i.e. using a present value formula)
residual valuation undertaken depend on to a common point in time to facilitate an
the final outcome sought where the first even comparison or analysis. The time
focuses on calculating the investment periods can be modified to any time
risk/return, the second on calculating the period, such as days or years depending on
remaining (residual) cash. The model the intended complexity of the DCF. The
considers the following: affordable land main advantage of this approach to the
purchase price, net development value, developer is that it allows a subsequent
purchaser’s costs, development costs, calculation of the ‘internal rate of
planning fees, building regulation fees, return’ (IRR), which is the measure used
funding fees, finance costs/interest, by some developers to assess the
letting agent’s fees, promotion costs, profitability of a scheme since IRR
sale costs, other development costs, considers both the timing of the
contingency allowance, developer’s cash-flows and the magnitude of each
profit/risk allowance. cash-flow. IRR is also ideal for comparing
43.2 FINANCIAL EVALUATION. 1. different potential property developments
Investment risk/return This model with their own variations in the timing
commences with (a) the final estimated and size of the cash-flows. A DCF method
value of the completed property is more likely to be used by investors who
development based on estimated final wish to retain the development in their
market prices. Then (b) the total portfolio and also seek to analyse the
development costs (e.g. land, construction return on their investment.
cost) can be deducted from (a) to 113.3 THE ROLE OF UNCERTAINTY AND RISK.
establish whether the project produces (c) Basic model is based on a considerable
an adequate rate of return for the number of variable factors including: land
developer or financier, either in terms of costs, rental value, square footage (or
a trading profit, an investment yield or metres) of building, investment yield,
return on capital. 2. Affordable land building cost, professional fees, time
purchase price An alternative approach for including pre-building contract, building
using a residual valuation is to assess and letting/sale periods, short-term rates
(a) the likely costs of producing a of interest, real estate agents’ fees,
development scheme and by deducting these promotion costs and other development
costs from (b) an estimate of the value of costs (Figure 3.1). It is important that
the completed development scheme to arrive the financial information input into the
at (c) a land purchase price. 3. cash-flow model is as reliable as
Purchaser’s costs The final completed possible. The level of reliability depends
development value needs to be expressed as on the developer’s experience and
a net development value to allow for assumptions behind sources of information
purchaser’s costs such as stamp duty, the developer uses. It is important that
agent’s fees and legal fees. the developer uses current and up-to-date
53.2 FINANCIAL EVALUATION. 4. rental values and accurate building costs
Development costs (a) Land costs (b) to reflect income and expenses in every
building costs (c) professional fees (d) development appraisal. An understanding of
site investigation fees. 5. Planning fees the complexities of risk is essential for
These costs relate to government fees a successful developer. Risk is embedded
required to make a planning application throughout the property market and is the
and securing consent for the property starting point for every analysis
development project. 6. Building involving property.
regulation fees Usually these costs are on 12Discussion point: Why are uncertainly
a sliding scale based on the final and risk major considerations when using
building cost. 7. Funding fees Most the cash flow method?
financial institutions and lenders charge 133.3 THE ROLE OF UNCERTAINTY AND RISK.
fees when arranging development finance. Land cost The purchase price of the land
8. Finance costs/interest Interest costs (either vacant or partially improved with
for borrowed funds are a critical element an existing old structure) is usually the
of the appraisal and can have an adverse first major financial commitment. Building
effect on the overall viability of any cost The building construction cost is the
development proposal. These costs reflect second major financial commitment, in
either (a) the actual cost to the combination with a number of other costs
developer of borrowing money over time or relating directly to the final sum.
(b) the implied or notional opportunity Short-term interest rates In obtaining the
cost. A sample timeline is shown in Figure essential finance to acquire the land and
3.1. build the scheme, the developer will be
6 exposed to any fluctuations in short-term
73.2 FINANCIAL EVALUATION. 9. Letting interest rates. Investment yield
agent’s fees These fees relate to the cost Investment yields are dictated by
of the agent letting the building to new decisions of stakeholders in the property
tenants. 10. Promotion costs The developer investment market, being the relationship
has to make an assessment of the likely between the total value of the completed
sum of money that needs to be spent on property developments and the total annual
promoting the project in order to let the rent received. Sensitivity analysis
property. 11. Sale costs Costs associated Measures the level of uncertainty involved
with selling the completed development in a particular property development
will need to be included if the developer scheme and therefore how much profit is
intends to sell the building once it is required to balance the resultant risk.
fully let. 12. Other development costs The 14Chapter 3 Development Appraisal and
inclusion of other costs within the Risk Property Development (6th Edition)
evaluation will depend on the nature of Publisher: Routledge www.routledge.com
the development and will be specific to Authors: Professor R.G. Reed and Dr S.
the project. Sims.
8Discussion points: What are the
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