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EC 2333: Transportation: Topic 4
содержание презентации «EC 2333: Transportation: Topic 4.ppt»| Сл | Текст | Сл | Текст |
| 1 | EC 2333: Transportation: Topic #4. | 31 | DELETE. Currently have mappings for 1911, |
| Professor Robert A. Margo Harvard | 1887, 1882, 1870, 1860, and 1851 | ||
| University Spring 2014. | (copyright dates); 1840, and 1830 | ||
| 2 | Outline. Social Savings of the | (Hallberg DBF off 1851 mapping). | |
| Railroad: Fogel Impact of RR on local | 32 | ||
| economies: Atack, et. al. Re-assessment of | 33 | Measuring Transportation Access. | |
| Fogel: Donaldson and Hornbeck (student | Original version uses dummy variables. | ||
| presentation) If time: Guy Michaels on the | Railroad = 1 if county has a railroad. | ||
| Interstate Highway System. | Ditto for navigable river or canal. Does | ||
| 3 | Fogel (1964). One of the most famous | NOT cross county boundaries. Latest | |
| (perhaps most famous) of all cliometrics | version has % of county within Z miles of | ||
| studies. Originally a JEH paper, then a | transportation. Crosses county boundaries. | ||
| dissertation, then a book. Book is about | Not yet in general use, still | ||
| more (much) than the “social savings” of | experimenting with Z parameter. | ||
| the RR but, for better or worse, it is the | 34 | ||
| social savings chapter that received the | 35 | ||
| most attention. HUGE follow-up literature, | 36 | ||
| some critical, some applying the same (or | 37 | Did RR “cause” Midwestern urbanization | |
| modified) method to other countries. | + population growth? Midwest is of | ||
| 4 | Definition of the Social Savings. | interest because rapid RR diffusion occurs | |
| Social savings (percent): savings in | in the 1850s. Percent urban and pop | ||
| transportation costs in a given year by | density increase. Is this “because” of the | ||
| shipping the same amount of goods by the | RR? According to Fishlow, RRs were built | ||
| next best alternative/national income As | where conditions already favored | ||
| defined, SS is an upper bound to the true | development, including urbanization and | ||
| resource cost (because the true demand for | density. HOWEVER, stops short of | ||
| transportation is NOT perfectly | estimating RR effect (not computationally | ||
| inelastic). Application is to the RR. Next | feasible at the time). Atack, et. al. use | ||
| best alternative is some combination of | DID and IV: economically significant, | ||
| water and wagon transportation. Concept | positive effect of RR on urbanization but | ||
| does not originate with Fogel but rather | not pop density. | ||
| with engineers (and economists) in C19 | 38 | ||
| Europe. | 39 | ||
| 5 | Fogel’s Algebra. Two sectors, | 40 | Specifics of our Midwestern database. |
| Transportation (T) and all other things | Building on our 1860 mapping from Colton | ||
| (A). Households consume A and some portion | Midwest 1848-60 from Paxson, “Railroads of | ||
| of T as a final good. T can be produced in | the Old Northwest” Transactions of the | ||
| two different ways, by R or by W. Overall, | Wisconsin Academy… (1914). | ||
| R is more efficient than W. Holding T | 41 | Specifics of our Midwestern database. | |
| fixed, if R is no longer available, then | Annual new mileage open for rail service | ||
| some resources (L and K) will have to be | Supplemented with map data for Iowa and | ||
| shifted from the production of A to the | Missouri Extensions to 1861 and railroad | ||
| production of T. The effect of this | gauges from Taylor & Neu (1956) | ||
| re-allocation on national income is, to a | Additionally, rivers used by steamboats, | ||
| first approximation, the additional cost | canals in operation and Great Lakes. | ||
| associated with W (i.e. it is the wage x | 42 | Rivers and Canals… | |
| labor reallocated + rental price of | 43 | Data. TR database restricted to seven | |
| capital x capital reallocated). Because T | Midwestern states. Link to Haines-ICPSR. | ||
| is held fixed, this is an upper bound to | Basic sample consists of 278 counties | ||
| the true SS. Also note that resources (L | which (a) existed in 1840-60 (b) had fixed | ||
| and K) are fully employed. Note that SS | county boundaries (c) had all data needed | ||
| can also be calculated as ? x dZ, where dZ | for regressions (d) got rail in the 1850s | ||
| = efficiency gain of the RR in percentage | or did not have rail before the Civil War. | ||
| terms (percent effect on costs) and ? = | We need fixed boundaries because | ||
| transportation’s share of national income. | Haines-ICPSR data only very recently | ||
| 6 | corrected for boundary changes. Got rail | ||
| 7 | Results. Calculation performed in two | in 1850s = treatment group. No rail = | |
| stages: inter-regional and intra-regional | control group. Counties in sample with RR | ||
| Inter-regional: between major shipping | access in 1850 probably got railroads very | ||
| points (eg. New York-Chicago) Four | late in 1840s. Not the best control sample | ||
| commodities are considered: pork, beef, | for 1850s. Two outcomes: percent urban and | ||
| wheat, and corn, comprise 75 percent of | log of population density | ||
| commodities shipped by rail in 1890 Big | (population/square miles). Percent urban | ||
| surprise: initial calculation of | is ? 2,500. Later look at 1 (percent urban | ||
| inter-regional is negative, turns positive | > 0), which is, does the county have at | ||
| after adjustment is made for lower | least one urban area? | ||
| insurance costs (cargo losses smaller | 44 | Railroads. Sample counties: 278 | |
| under rail) and speedier service | counties that had stable borders 1840-1860 | ||
| (inventory costs lower) Intra-regional: | (for controls and linkage) ACCESS to | ||
| farmers would have used more wagon | transportation: county boundary defined by | ||
| transportation. This is the main effect. | transportation route or county traversed | ||
| Total for four commodities is around 117 | by one Alternative metrics in works. | ||
| million, Fogel inflates by ratio of value | 45 | Research Template So Far: Effects of | |
| added = 4.7 percent of GNP in 1890. 7. | RR. Measure the “treatment” (causal) | ||
| 8 | Follow-up Literature. Book had a HUGE | effect of TR on economic outcomes at the | |
| impact. Narrow: applications of SS concept | county level. Different from previous work | ||
| to transportation improvements in other | which was aggregate (e.g. “social | ||
| settings. Probably the most important is | savings”). Recent studies in urban | ||
| Coatsworth on Mexico (SS is around 30 | (Baum-Snow) and development (Donaldson on | ||
| percent). SS concept also applied to other | India; Bannerjee, et. al. on China). We | ||
| innovations (steam engine, tractor) but | adopt a “natural experiments” (reduced | ||
| not many. Broad: accelerated the shift to | form) econometric approach to measure the | ||
| quantitative methods in economic history. | treatment effect of RR. Popular in applied | ||
| SUBSTANTIAL critical literature at the | microeconomics, gaining ground in economic | ||
| time and shortly after: McClelland, David, | history circles. Ideal natural experiment: | ||
| Lebergott, Williamson, among others. Fogel | treatment vs. control group, treatment is | ||
| (1979) is the response. | “as good as” random. Link TR database to | ||
| 9 | Lebergott: SS too small because RR | county level outcomes, typically published | |
| system had large economies of scale and | census or IPUMS using FIPS codes. | ||
| was never even close to capacity. Use | Completed papers to date mainly using | ||
| minimum of LR AC curve instead Fogel’s | Midwest sample. Start with a “balanced” | ||
| response: transport costs that were | panel of counties, 1850-1860 and, if | ||
| technologically feasible were never | possible, 1840. Balanced: constant land | ||
| economically feasible because the system | area, 1850-60. Approximately 280 counties. | ||
| always carried a mixture of goods to many | Strategy #1: simple | ||
| places. Major Criticisms at the Time (1): | difference-in-differences. Control group: | ||
| Technological versus Economic Definition. | no RR access before Civil War. Treatment | ||
| 10 | group: no rail in 1850, got rail by 1860. | ||
| 11 | Major Criticisms at the Time (2): | Strategy #2: DD w/covariates (including | |
| Perfectly Inelastic Demand and Marginal | pre-existing trend if possible). | ||
| Social Rate of Return. Fogel assumes price | Covariates statistically related to coming | ||
| elasticity of demand for RR is zero. | of the RR and (when data relevant) | ||
| Clearly false, but especially for | individual/household characteristics. | ||
| passenger transportation. How large is the | Primary robustness check: instrumental | ||
| bias? Assume log-linear demand. Answer: | variable. Congress authorized 60+ | ||
| VERY. Measure marginal social rate of | transportation surveys, 1824-1838. Draw | ||
| return (Lebergott; Nerlove). Captures | straight line between starting and ending | ||
| impact of the last dollar invested, not | location of survey. IV = 1 if county lies | ||
| the total impact (BUT if you could measure | on this straight line. Good “first stage”. | ||
| this for every dollar invested, would be | Some evidence (in SSH paper) that IV | ||
| useful). | satisfies the exclusion restriction. Other | ||
| 12 | straight-line instruments. | ||
| 13 | 46 | TR and Urbanization. Coming of RR | |
| 14 | Major Criticisms at the Time (3): | increases trade. Midwest has comparative | |
| Water Rates. Water rates too low | advantage in agriculture. Trade has to | ||
| (McClelland and others). BUT Fogel used | take place somewhere. Central place = | ||
| water rates appropriate to average | urban area. Population growth occurs | ||
| distance traveled. Canals were subsidized | within economically feasible vicinity of | ||
| and subsidy not reflected in SS | transportation hubs. Rising farm incomes | ||
| calculation. NOT true, Fogel allows for | increase demand for Midwestern | ||
| this and not that important | manufactures, which take place in urban | ||
| quantitatively. Canals were monopolies and | areas due to agglomeration economies. When | ||
| would have charged monopoly price in | rail comes to one central place, others | ||
| absence of RR. TRUE in British case but | nearby grow in anticipation of future RR | ||
| not true in US case. Also, effect is | expansion. Return to this (more general) | ||
| offset by assumption of perfectly | point later. | ||
| inelastic demand which is economically | 47 | Tables 1-3. Table 1 shows distribution | |
| inconsistent under monopoly pricing. BUT | of basic sample by state Table 2 shows | ||
| even if this were maintained, effect would | sample means in 1850 and 1860. Table 3, | ||
| be small because canals did not provide | Panels A and B, show base | ||
| much of the water-borne transportation: | differences-in-differences. Weight is land | ||
| maximum effect is around $39 million, | area in 1850 for density, average | ||
| which adds about 0.3 percentage points of | population for percent urban. Results for | ||
| GNP to the SS. Canals had rising LRMC. | percent urban are very similar if land | ||
| Regressions in the paper suggest to the | area is weight. Treatment effects are | ||
| contrary, that MC was decreasing in | positive, small for population density. | ||
| tonnage shipped and if more tonnage had | Table 3, last column is consistent w/ | ||
| been shipped by water, canals would have | Fishlow . Treatment counties became more | ||
| been designed to carry more traffic | urban and densely populated in the decade | ||
| (similar to widening a modern highway). | (1840s) before arrival of railroad. | ||
| 15 | “Demand ahead of building” rather than the | ||
| 16 | reverse. | ||
| 17 | Major Criticisms of the Time (4): | 48 | |
| Substitution Possibilities. Lebergott: RR | 49 | ||
| and water were perfect substitutes. False, | 50 | ||
| even on routes where the two ostensibly | 51 | ||
| competed. Example: Grain shipped from | 52 | Dif-in-Dif Regression Estimates. | |
| Chicago to NY could go by train or water. | Pre-treatment differences in outcomes more | ||
| Cross-elasticity of substitution of grain | general phenomenon: RR did not arrive | ||
| demand for water transportation with | randomly (Fishlow). Table 4 shows | ||
| respect to rail rate is about 1. | observable correlates of gaining rail | ||
| 18 | Major Criticisms at the Time (5): RR | access: high agricultural yields, growing | |
| and Long-Run Growth. Probably the most | urbanization, presence of navigable river | ||
| important criticism of SS is that it is a | (-) , state dummies also matter. BTW: | ||
| SR measure not a LR measure. In LR, | Table 4 specification gives good | ||
| resource costs will compound. Possible | propensity score results for matching | ||
| effects on factor supply (see below). BUT | estimator. Matching very close to DD. | ||
| offsetting this is possibility of faster | Columns 3, 5 of Table 5 shows DID with | ||
| tech change in the next best alternative. | Table 3 controls x (year = 1860 | ||
| David argues that SS misses scale | interactions). No change in percent urban | ||
| economies. Fogel argues back that these | treatment effect, population density | ||
| cannot be at the level of the firm | effect is larger and nearly significant at | ||
| (because these would already have been | 5 percent level. | ||
| captured) and a reasonable assessment | 53 | ||
| suggests they must be small. | 54 | ||
| 19 | 55 | IV estimation. Conditional DID may not | |
| 20 | be enough if treatment correlated with | ||
| 21 | Major Criticisms at the Time (6): | error term. Need an instrumental variable. | |
| Williamson GE model. Williamson 1974 | “Congressional Survey” IV. Between 1824 | ||
| presents CGE model of C19 American | and 1838 Congress authorizes approximately | ||
| economy. Chapter on RR social savings. | 60 transportation surveys. Location | ||
| Claims the effect is around 20 percent of | (starting and end points) of most are | ||
| GNP. Charles Kahn reassesses. Finds errors | reported in American State Papers. Many in | ||
| in computer program, reduces to 12 | Midwest. IV = 1 if county is on straight | ||
| percent. Allows for resource costs of | line between starting and end point of | ||
| transportation, reduces to 6.8 percent. | survey. Idea is that shortest distance | ||
| Williamson does not measure RR, but rather | between two points is a straight line and | ||
| effect of improvements in RR and water | low cost construction is preferred. If we | ||
| transportation captured by inter-regional | regress pre-trend (1840-50) of | ||
| convergence (MW and NE) in grain prices. | urbanization or log density on survey IV | ||
| VERY large impact on regional production, | w/controls (1840 urbanization, density, | ||
| industrial composition of output. | water transport + state dummies), | ||
| 22 | Lessons: The C19 Transportation | coefficients on IV are very close to zero | |
| Revolution. Mistake to think that one | and insignificant. Suggests exclusion | ||
| technology just replaced another: water | restriction may be ok. First stage pretty | ||
| transport experienced great gains in TFP | good. Second stage coefficients are | ||
| in C19 and in C20, of course, the “wagon” | positive but imprecise enough such that | ||
| became the truck The key advances prior to | are not significantly different from DID | ||
| the C20 were in medium and long-haul | coefficients. Results shown in Table 6. | ||
| transportation Water had advantages in the | 56 | ||
| very long haul but rail did better in | 57 | ||
| medium haul; water + rail had an enormous | 58 | Table 7. Use Table 4 (columns 3,5) DID | |
| advantage over wagon transportation. In | coefficients to predict ? in urbanization | ||
| countries without adequate water | and density. RR can “explain” a little | ||
| transportation, SS of railroad could be | more than half of growth in urbanization | ||
| very high Example: Mexico (30 percent of | but only a small amount of population | ||
| GDP in early 20th century). 22. | growth. Implications for Fogel SS. If (1) | ||
| 23 | Railroads Re-visited. Work on RR and | RR “caused” urbanization (2) effect of RR | |
| other aspects of transportation went out | on urbanization > canals (or other | ||
| of favor by the 1980s. Return to favor in | water transportation improvements) (3) | ||
| mid-2000s with studies of the interstate | aggregate TFP increases because of | ||
| highway system (Baum-Snow; Michaels). | urbanization, then Fogel SS is downward | ||
| Important predecessor in economic history | bias. (2) and (3) are speculative at this | ||
| is Craig and Palmquist (1996) which uses | point. | ||
| county level data and historical maps. | 59 | ||
| Atack-Margo project: uses GIS applied to | 60 | Robustness Check (1). We keep county | |
| digitized historical maps to generate | boundaries fixed from 1850-60 but require | ||
| county-level panel database on the TR. | ONLY that county existed in 1840. What if | ||
| Linked to economic outcomes typically from | we fix county boundaries over 1840-60? | ||
| census data. Basic idea is to use “natural | Sample size much smaller (188) counties. | ||
| experiment” econometrics: RR is a | DD very similar for urbanization but | ||
| “treatment”. Similar projects underway in | impact on population density is larger and | ||
| other countries (Germany, England, China, | now significant. Explanatory power of | ||
| Sweden). | gaining rail access for population density | ||
| 24 | Motivation. Long tradition in | ?’s 1850-60 doubles (about 10 percent) but | |
| economics of studying the local impact of | still small. | ||
| transportation improvements. Social | 61 | ||
| savings not especially well-suited to | 62 | Robustness Checks (2). Alternative | |
| this. Local effects may be useful in | measure of urbanization: 1(percent urban | ||
| assessing certain outcomes not captured by | > 0). This variable = 1 if percent | ||
| Fogel. Examples include technological | urban is positive, 0 otherwise. | ||
| change (Sokoloff 1988 on patents and Erie | Potentially useful because there are a lot | ||
| Canal), urbanization, agricultural | of zeros. See below. Base DD: positive | ||
| improvements, mortality. Direct | treatment effect, fairly large and | ||
| predecessor is Haines and Margo (2008). | precisely measured. Ditto with controls, | ||
| Used Craig-Palmquist-Weiss (CPW) | IV results similar. Rail explains 62 | ||
| transportation database (1850-60) matched | percent of increase in 1(percent | ||
| to published census and IPUMS. New TR data | urban>0) between 1850 and 1860 | ||
| set is a significant improvement over CPW. | (predicted = 0.115, actual = 0.173). | ||
| Atack, Margo, and co-author studies focus | 63 | ||
| primarily on Midwest in 1850s. Discussion | 64 | ||
| today is of the primary paper (Social | 65 | Robustness Checks (3). Useful to | |
| Science History). | compare DD with lagged dependent variable | ||
| 25 | New Data, Part One: Background. Large | (LDV). Economic reason is reverse | |
| body of nineteenth century transportation | “Ashenfelter” dip. Counties that grow | ||
| maps stored at various archives/libraries. | rapidly in 1840s are more likely to get a | ||
| Previously used by scholars to measure | RR BUT because experience slower growth in | ||
| change over time and construct data sets | 1850s because of more rapid growth in | ||
| via visual matching (eg. Craig, Palmquist, | 1840s. Fishlow missed this BUT doesn’t | ||
| and Weiss 1996). Very costly to access | matter much quantitatively (DD is close to | ||
| maps on-site and many opportunities for | LDV, see next table). Note that DD for | ||
| subtle and even gross error. Libraries and | percent urban > LDV. Indicates that | ||
| archives have embraced the digital age. | percent urban is an explosive time series. | ||
| On-line maps can be manipulated via GIS | 1(percent urban > 0) is ok, however. | ||
| software to create numerical databases | Because percent urban has so many zeros, | ||
| more cheaply and (potentially) more | good idea to try quantile regression. Need | ||
| accurately than visual methods. GIS can | to go far up the distribution (90th and | ||
| also be used to create data from scanned | 95th percentiles). Pooled TSCS, with | ||
| paper maps. | dummies for state, water transportation. | ||
| 26 | New Data, Part Two: Original Version. | Treatment effect of rail access is | |
| Used in all papers to date except Atack, | 0.12-0.16 (depending on weights), | ||
| Margo and Perlman (in progress). | significant at 5 percent level. Still | ||
| Constructed by moving “forward” in time: | significant if standard errors are | ||
| 1850 uses an 1850 map, 1860 uses and 1860 | bootstrapped. | ||
| map, etc. Problems with this approach but | 66 | ||
| apparent only after we were done. Time | 67 | Other Results: Impact of RR. In | |
| frame is 1850-1880, covers entire county | manufacturing (1850-70): positive effect | ||
| (BUT work to date focuses primarily on | of RR on % “factory” (firms with 16+ | ||
| Midwest, 1850-60). Census year frequency. | employees). Consistent with Adam Smith | ||
| Panel data at the county level. Archival | (division of labor limited by the extent | ||
| version is “unbalanced” but mostly we work | of the market). Atack, Haines, Margo | ||
| with a “balanced” sample (see below). RR | (2011). Midwest: positive effect on % of | ||
| access is a 0-1 dummy (is there a RR in or | acres improved and average farm values. | ||
| bordering the county at date t?). Other | Atack and Margo (JTLU, 2011) Midwest: | ||
| types of transportation (e.g. canal, | negative effect on ownership of land, | ||
| navigable waterway) coded as dummy | possibly because of increase in minimum | ||
| variables as of 1850. PROBLEM: ignores | efficient scale of farms (or credit | ||
| change over 1850s. Easy to link to census | constraints). Atack and Margo (2012). | ||
| data (published) or IPUMS using county | Entire country (1850-70): positive effect | ||
| FIPS code. BUT a major issue: changes in | on school enrollment. Atack, Margo, and | ||
| county boundaries. So far have either (a) | Perlman (in progress). | ||
| restrict sample to counties with constant | 68 | Michaels. Recent PhD from MIT. Work | |
| boundaries (b) ignored the problem. | focuses on impact of transportation | ||
| 27 | New TR Data Set (2). Locate and | improvements and factor endowments. | |
| download digital TR maps and/or create | Motivating framework is international | ||
| digital maps from paper copies. Overlay | trade. Paper on reading list focuses on | ||
| digital TR maps on digital county boundary | impact of the US federal highway system. | ||
| maps. Data set starts in 1850 and | System was proposed in 1940s. Idea was to | ||
| currently ends in 1880 at census year | facilitate national defense, connect major | ||
| frequencies. At present GIS overlay is | metro areas, and the US to Mexico and | ||
| sufficiently accurate to create 0-1 access | Canada. BUT to do this, it was necessary | ||
| variables (eg. is there a rail line in a | to go through rural areas. What was the | ||
| county as of a specific census date?) | effect in such areas? | ||
| Water transportation access: Great Lakes | 69 | Data. Focuses on approximately half | |
| frontage = 1, Ocean frontage = 1, | the mileage of the interstate highway | ||
| Navigable river = 1, canal = 1. Measured | system, basically long highways (n = 18) | ||
| as of 1850. Given county boundaries as of | built between 1959-1975. Eg: I-40, I-95. | ||
| year t, no change over time so impact | Unit of observation is county. Has to be | ||
| cannot be assessed (except maybe IV). | 50 percent rural in 1950 and essentially | ||
| Railroad access = 1 if railroad line | no county boundary changes. Two | ||
| passes through county. Also plan to | instruments: (a) 1944 plan (b) orientation | ||
| compute total mileage, number of nodes, | of the county towards major urban areas | ||
| etc. Current version was constructed | Key results: positive effects on retail | ||
| working forward from 1850. New version of | trade, earnings from transportation, | ||
| database in progress, working backwards | likelihood of working outside county of | ||
| from 1911 map, removing lines. Fixes some | residence (statistically insignificant, | ||
| measurement error in access dummy and | however). | ||
| should be superior for refined measures | 70 | ||
| like mileage (1911 map overlays on county | 71 | ||
| boundary maps very well). | 72 | ||
| 28 | Digitized Maps. | 73 | |
| 29 | Geo-referenced Digitized Map. | 74 | |
| 30 | Geo-referenced Digitized Map. | 75 | |
| 31 | Specifics of our RR database. From | 76 | |
| 1911 New Century mapping, we progressively | |||
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