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Hegazy-McNutt ‘Non-linear thinking’ image… time continuum
Hegazy-McNutt ‘Non-linear thinking’ image… time continuum
CTL: 2005 Google & Android
CTL: 2005 Google & Android
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Google, gaming getting ahead Games Observational Learning

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1Google, gaming & getting ahead 17‘type’ as a player…reveals insight into
Games & Observational Learning. company strategy 2. Can I trust you?
Patrick A. McNutt, FRSA Web: Private information is not observable,
www.patrickmcnutt.com McNutt: Game only actions are.
Embedded Strategy (2010) McGraw Hill. 18What is strategy? CTL: Today’s
2Q: What is Game Theory about? A: decision depends on the one we shall make
Observational learning in a time tomorrow. Time periods t [action] and
continuum. Finding & extracting a t+1[reaction] About extracting information
pattern from a sequence of moves (historic from time period t to time period t+1
v real-time) Understanding the pattern as Predicting competitor reaction in t+1
wave movements Information embedded in Analyse what market your company should be
observed behaviour Information filtering in in t+1 Decisions are not isolated
and ‘transactive’ memory? events.
3Q: So what? Why? Information has a 19Trust & Signalling Mismatch
value Individual memory is ‘outsourced’ to (Non-Binding Chat). Example Signal at
Google, Facebook, LinkedIn… Behaviour can (March 12 2007) = New Century Financial
be ‘tracked’ Predicting likely future Shares suspended in the US. Did you
actions and reactions. observe? Example: Early 2007 Singal b =
4Tracking decisions: Observe but do not ‘moonshot’ of reported launch of a gPhone
judge. Decisions, action are not isolated and Apple launch the iPhone earlier than
events They can reveal a pattern Observe, planned in 2007? Example: Leo the Liar is
and filter the information embedded in the the only person who can save you from a
signal Information used to monitor and cliff edge where you are hanging on with
report on individual behaviour Cloud one hand. Leo asks for your hand so that
computing FBI Strategic Information & he can pull you up..do you give Leo your
Operations Centre FBI Behavioural Analysis hand? Belief system: Barcelona v Man
Unit. Utd……I know that he knows that I
5Hegazy-McNutt ‘Non-linear thinking’ know…..Player type: Arjen Robben - Man Utd
image… time continuum. v Bayern Munich [2010] and England v
6Time continuum.. observing patterns in Netherlands [2012].
time, dT/dt = -1. Last Month… 1 hour ago 20High Price Player A. Low Price Player
Last Week… 10 minutes ago Yesterday… 1 A. High Price Player B. Cartel,
minute ago Today… Now Tomorrow… 1 minute cooperation. B’s loss. Low Price Player B.
later Next Week… 10 minutes later Next A’s loss. Competition.
Month… 1 hour later. 21Observe the signals & identify the
7Host (updating your belief system) or… type Understand your strategy as simple
Guest (observing signals & type). action-reaction…where reaction = action of
WHERE TO HOST THE BBQ? Preference Regrets other player Likely reaction from a
Disappointment Disaster Note: Host competitor: Who? Binary Reaction: D or E
[incumbent] v Guest [entrant]. will react? Non-Binary Reaction: what is
8SUN. RAIN. HOUSE. Regrets. probability that D will react? Being
Disappointment. GARDEN. Preference. ‘ahead of the game’ v ‘we didn’t win by a
Disaster. lot, but we won by enough’ Romney on
9Thinking strategically in a time Michigan Primary Feb 28 2012. Thomas
continuum. 2nd Objective Observing in Schelling-John Nash (signalling) premise….
context What is the information in the 22Critical Analysis: Signals. Do not ‘be
pattern observed? 1st Objective Cascade surprised’ by unseen events Recognise the
effect Understanding the pattern (eg a best that you can do given the reaction of
restaurant queue, CTL) in what you a competitor: the Nash reply Make better
observe. informed decisions (on how to respond).
10 23TIMELINE – Pre 2006. Announcement PS3
111st Objective: Cascade Effect. Observe production schedule to ship 6 million
individual type Private information & units by 31 Mar 07 at $499. PS2 launched
truthful revelation: memory cost of at $299. PS2 at $199.99. PS2 at $179.99.
deception Action and reaction: Yes Action PS2 at $149.99. 100 million PS2 shipped.
and diffusion: ‘Black Swan’ effect What PS2 at $129.99. Xbox at $179. 22 million
market should a firm be in? Xbox shipped. Microsoft Xbox launched at
12CTL: 2005 Google & Android. 2005 $299. Revised production schedule for Xbox
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011. Apple share 360 to 5- 5.5 million units by 30th June
price. Apple sues Samsung. Corporate 2006. Xbox 360 launched at $399. Xbox at
intentions. i2G announced. i2G launched. $199. Xbox at $179. Xbox at $149. 11 May
i3G announced. i3GS launched. i3G 04. 20 April 06. 8 May 06. 26 Oct 00. 15
launched. i4 launched. i5. BB Pearl. BB Nov 01. 14 May 02 15 May 02. 13 May 03 14
Tour. BB Curve. BB Storm. BB Bold. HTC May 03. 29 Mar 04. 1 Nov 05 30 Oct 05. 22
Dream. HTC Magic. Samsung Galaxy. Nokia Nov 05. 6 Feb 06. 27 April 06.
sues Apple. Samsung sues Apple. Nokia 24Sequence of Moves as a Wave Movement.
operates Windows. Motorola CLIQ, Google The wavelength is the timing of reactions
Nexus. G1 Aug Jan Mar Jun Mar Jun Jul Aug Behaviour is a ‘vibrational pattern’ in
G2 Oct Nov Jul Aug Nov Jun Jul Apr Jun ? time and space Observe the price signals
G3. Jul ‘05. Nov ‘07. Google buys Android as amplitudes in the wave pattern CTL
Inc. Google opens Android. Apple invite allows us to observe what sequence would
app developers. Oct ‘07. look like in t+1.
132nd Objective: In Context. Signals: 25And .……t+1 is here. The future is not
observe but do not judge Signals contain what it used to be !! Feel the force,
information? Type & Signals Keeping to Luke: let go of your conscious self and
type: trust and truth Signalling cycle… act on instinct !! Do you agree?
the critical time line: CTL. 26Q: Why GEMS? A: Opportunities
14Architecture of a Game. Playing a game identified that can be seized. The biggest
without information Playing a game with risk to a company is ignorance of
‘good’ signals What is the optimal move, potential risks, not having a Nash reply,
given X? How does the value of the signal requiring team-driven critical imagination
vary with X under different actions? based on SLT…
Playing to win Playing not to lose. 27Strategic Lateral Thinking (SLT):
15 filtering information in a time continuum.
16CTL – observe and filter the Relevance and importance of Player type:
information Example (abstract) Google vision of t+1 informs action in t
Android signalling. Critical Time Line Footprints in the game as patterns
Nokia/ Apple/ Google - Western Europe – ‘Near-rival’: Player A reacts first to
Mobile Handset. Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Mar Player B…why not Player C? Nash reply
Aug Jul Sep Mar Apr Jul Feb. 2007 2007 minimises surprises Market-as-a-game
2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 evolving in time ‘Spherical’ competitors
2010 2010 2011. Acquired navteq: digital from anywhere at anytime in a game..Google
mapping data. Acquired Loudeye to target & Moto, HP & Palm.
iTunes. Unveil 7705 Twist. Acquired 28Thank you for listening……… Sapere aude
Metacarta - local search. Announce shift ‘That which one can know, one should dare
to internet business @ annual stock holder to know’.
meeting. acquired Twango for media 29Thank you for listening……… Mark Twain
sharing. Announced intent to buy Enpocket ‘If you tell the truth you don’t have to
(mobile advertising). Acquired novarra - remember anything’.
mobile browser. Acquired Metacarta - local 30Google, gaming & getting ahead
search. Games & Observational Learning.
17Game Embedded Strategy [GEMS] & Patrick A. McNutt, FRSA Web:
Tn=3. The sequence of moves is observed 1. www.patrickmcnutt.com McNutt: Game
by rivals as a pattern, revealing your Embedded Strategy (2010) McGraw Hill.
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