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Humans are Recent Arrivals
Humans are Recent Arrivals
A Closer Look (1)
A Closer Look (1)
A Closer Look (1)
A Closer Look (1)
Three Technological Eras (2)
Three Technological Eras (2)
Fertility Trends
Fertility Trends
Population Predictions (4)
Population Predictions (4)
Population May Overshoot
Population May Overshoot
Resource Consumption (6)
Resource Consumption (6)
Resource Limits - Land (7)
Resource Limits - Land (7)
Resource Limits - Water (8)
Resource Limits - Water (8)
Energy Consumption (9)
Energy Consumption (9)
Fossil Fuel Reserves (9)
Fossil Fuel Reserves (9)
Technology Evolves (10)
Technology Evolves (10)
Technology Evolves (10)
Technology Evolves (10)
Economics and Resources (11)
Economics and Resources (11)
Global Warming - A Good Example
Global Warming - A Good Example
Global Warming - A Good Example
Global Warming - A Good Example
Predicting the Future - Be Careful
Predicting the Future - Be Careful
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Human Population Growth and the Environment

содержание презентации «Human Population Growth and the Environment.ppt»
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1Human Population Growth and the 18the great extinctions took 10’s of
Environment. Human Population - An millions of years Biodiversity is
Explosive Growth Human Needs - Limited essential to life on Earth and holds
Resources Our Natural Environment Under untold treasures for the future An
Attack Roles of Technology and Engineering ecological ethic is emerging.
An Uncertain Future. 19Global Warming - A Good Example.
2Humans are Recent Arrivals. Earth - 5 Atmospheric CO2 is increasing, and creates
Billion Years Multi-cell Biota - 600 greenhouse effect.(14) 3-5°C rise
Million Years Human Beings ~ 2 Million predicted by computer models for this
Years Human Population Growth into century would have major environmental
Billions - Last 200 years. 6 Billion. 6 impact. (15) Observed change of
Billion. A Million Years Of Human Growth 0.25-0.4°surface and 0.0-0.2°C troposphere
(1). rise in last 20 years doesn’t agree with
3A Closer Look (1). 12,000 years 200 models and may or may not be due to
Million by 1 A.D. 2,000 Years 1 Billion in CO2.(16) Humans - 6 billion tons/year of
1800 A.D. The Industrial Revolution. 1 CO2 (up 500% from 1950, and increasing)
Billion. 200 million. (17) Other sources 200B tons/year Total
4Three Technological Eras (2). atmosphere load - 775B tons Total earth
5What’s Behind Population Growth. load with oceans - 42,000B tons. 0.6°C
Industrial Revolution Growth of Cities and rise in last 100 years.
Infrastructure Water Energy Transportation 20Predicting the Future - Be Careful.
Increased Productivity Nutrition Don’t assume it cant be done Leave room
Sanitation Medicine. Three Factors for the unknown Consider alternatives
Fertility Infant Mortality Longevity carefully Pursue all potential solutions.
Animal Domestication and Agriculture 21Technology’s Roles. Detailed explicit
Provided for a few to feed many. information and understanding of what is
6Fertility Trends. Population occurring Sensors, data processing,
predictions are very sensitive to future computers, models, predictions,
fertility assumptions At 1990 fertility communication, information…... Alternate
rates (constant by region) population technologies that mitigate and eliminate
would grow to 110 billion in 2100, over deleterious effects Energy, water,
700 billion in 2150 (3) Has been dropping transportation, communication… Sustainable
since 1800 in developed nations - now at Development.
Zero Growth (4) Is on its way down in much 22Engineers are vital. Developing and
of the developing world (4). applying the means by which to measure,
7Population Predictions (4). Most analyze and predict future conditions the
predictions: 9-12B by 2050 10-15B by 2100 technologies by which to mitigate and
UN (Low) requires global fertility at less eliminate undesired effects Describing,
than zero growth in 15 years Large explaining and communicating To policy
uncertainties. makers To the non-technical public
8Population May Overshoot. When Creating the framework for a sustainable
Population Outpaces Resources. Scenario - environment.
current population trend, doubled 23Summary. Major increases are occurring
resources (5). in human population and affluence. Major
9Resource Consumption (6). High stresses result in our society, natural
consumption Getting worse Rate increase environment, and ecology. Technology and
faster than population growth. engineering are central to the creation
10Resource Limits - Land (7). and the mitigation of problems. Predicting
Deforesting to acquire more arable land the future is difficult (17). The next
Would run out in next century at current twenty five to fifty years will be
yields Probably need to double yields. decisive.
11Resource Limits - Water (8). In 1950 24References. 1. Cohen, Joel, How Many
people used half of accessible water Are People Can The Earth Support?, W. W.
now dependent on dams Pollution loses 33% Norton & Co., New York, 1995, p79-82.
of potential water Getting close to 2. Kates, Robert, Population, technology,
limits. and the human environment: A thread
12Energy Consumption (9). Energy growth through time, Technological Trajectories
very high last fifty years Mostly and the Human Environment, J Ausubel and
hydrocarbon fuels Nonrenewable resource H.D.Langford, Eds., National Academy
consumption and climate change issues. Press, Washington, D.C., 1997, page 38
13Fossil Fuel Reserves (9). Lots of coal (concept credited to Deevey, E., The human
- but heavy CO2 contributor Look for population, Scientific American, 203, no.9
alternative forms of energy to emerge. (September) 1960, pages 194-204.) 3.
14Technology Evolves (10). Cars replaced Cohen, op. cit., p139. 4. Kates, op cit.,
horses as transportation needs grew. p50-51. 5. Meadows, Donella H.. et al,
Energy forms have changed to meet changing Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green
needs New economic and environmental needs Publishing Co., White River Junction,
are emerging. Vermont, 1992, p128-140. 6. Meadows, op.
15Economics and Resources (11). 1.1 cit., p7.
billion people suffer from malnutrition. 25References, continued. 7. Meadows, op
Impact = P*A*T Population Affluence cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and
Technology US - 5% of global population Sinks, p51. 8. Meadows, op cit., Chapter
but 20-25% of environmental impact. % of 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p55. 9.
global income. 84.7. 1.4. Poorest 20%. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits:
Richest 20%. Sources and Sinks, p67-8. 10. Ausubel, J,
16Planet Earth is Impacted (12). and H.D.Langford, Eds., Technological
Ecological Footprints United States - 5 Trajectories and the Human Environment,
hectares/person Developing nations - 0.5 National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.,
hectare/person For everyone to live at 1997, p21 and 86 11. Cohen, op. cit., p52.
today’s US footprint would require 3 12. Wilson, Edward O., Foreword to 1999
planet Earths Increasing affluence and edition, The Diversity of Life, W.W.Norton
population is damaging Earth’s essential & Co., New York, 1992. 13. Wilson,
ecology. E.O.,The Diversity of Life, W.W.Norton
17Our ‘Commons’ are in Danger. & Co., New York, 1992. 14..Meadows,
Atmospheric pollution and climate change op. cit, p92-96. 15. National Research
Water pollution, including ground aquifers Council, Reconciling Observations of
Deforestation and loss of oxygenation The Global Temperature Change, National
oceans, coral reefs and their bounty Academy Press, Washington D.C., 2000 16.
National parks, wildernesses and wetlands Dunn, Seth, Decarbonizing the energy
Nonrenewable natural resource depletion economy in Brown, Lester et al, State of
Fossil fuels, mineral ores, topsoil….. the World,W.W.Norton & Co., New York,
18Biodiversity is in Danger (13). 2001, page 85 17. Cerf, Christopher, and
Humanity has spawned a species extinction Victor Navansky, The Experts Speak,
to rival the 5 great extinctions of 65 - Pantheon Books, New York, 1984, revised
440 million years ago Recovery times from 2000.
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Human Population Growth and the Environment

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