Курсы английского
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Table 3: China and India’s Rising Energy and Steel Use Year-on-year
Table 3: China and India’s Rising Energy and Steel Use Year-on-year
impact of slowdown
impact of slowdown
What impact should a slowdown of China’s growth have on the world
What impact should a slowdown of China’s growth have on the world
2. The Global Labour Pool Has Doubled: Lower Wages, Fatter Profits
2. The Global Labour Pool Has Doubled: Lower Wages, Fatter Profits
Each country is represented by a horizontal line segment, with the
Each country is represented by a horizontal line segment, with the
Lewis model with unlimited supplies of labour
Lewis model with unlimited supplies of labour
In figure 3, labour is available at wage w^ up to L*
In figure 3, labour is available at wage w^ up to L*
Figure 4 suggests that China is still miles away from reaching the
Figure 4 suggests that China is still miles away from reaching the
If China’s productivity increase occurs in low-tech output, there is
If China’s productivity increase occurs in low-tech output, there is
Real equilibrium wages down 15% (
Real equilibrium wages down 15% (
Have a look at the Lerner-Pearce diagram which depicts the
Have a look at the Lerner-Pearce diagram which depicts the
3. Price and Wage Effects: The Large-Country Case
3. Price and Wage Effects: The Large-Country Case
Trade theory usually works with the small-country assumption: a
Trade theory usually works with the small-country assumption: a
No wonder: prices have been rising since 2001
No wonder: prices have been rising since 2001
Table 6: Volatility in Commodity Import Prices*
Table 6: Volatility in Commodity Import Prices*
manufactured goods
manufactured goods
China’s terms of trade Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the
China’s terms of trade Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the
China’s terms of trade Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the
China’s terms of trade Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the
China’s terms of trade Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the
China’s terms of trade Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the
China’s terms of trade Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the
China’s terms of trade Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the
China’s terms of trade Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the
China’s terms of trade Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the
China’s terms of trade Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the
China’s terms of trade Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the
China’s terms of trade Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the
China’s terms of trade Terms of trade is defined as the ratio of the
Terms of Trade: The Large-Country Case
Terms of Trade: The Large-Country Case
Figure 9: Commodity import price, export volume and Terms of trade
Figure 9: Commodity import price, export volume and Terms of trade
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1China’s and India’s Implications for 19rise as a result of higher labour unit
the World Economy by Helmut Reisen, OECD cost. This potential adverse effect should
Development Centre. 1. China and India show up in a rise of China’s terms of
Growth contribution to global growth trade, or the ratio of her export to
sources & structure China’s raw import prices. We will see later that
material hunger impact of slowdown 2. The China’s terms of trade have worsened. So
Global Labour Pool Has Doubled: Lower the purchasing power of OECD workers’
Wages, Fatter Profits labour & wages wages rises as a result of China’s
China’s surplus labour the Lewis model pressure on low-tech and intermediate
with unlimited supplies of labour a goods prices, but that may offer little
Krugman-Lewis three-sector model comfort to workers if their nominal wages
rich-country wages: a simple Cobb-Douglas drop faster still.
function the Stolper-Samuelson theorem 3. 20The entry of China, India and the
Price and Wage Effects: The Large-Country former Soviet bloc into the global economy
Case China’s terms of trade large-country cut the global capital/labour ratio by 55%
trade analysis Implications for investors. to 60% compared to what it otherwise would
21. China and India Growth. Source: have been. Even considering the high
IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2005 savings rate in the new entrants ( e.g. in
N.B: GDP based on purchasing-power-parity China ca. 40 percent of GDP), it will take
(PPP) valuation of country GDP. 30 or so years for the world to re-attain
contribution to global growth Table 1: the capital/labor ratio among the
China and India’s Contribution to Global countries that had previously made up the
Growth, 2000-2004 Percentage share of global economy. How much pressure has this
annual growth rate. . 2000. 2001. 2002. placed on wages in advanced countries? The
2003. 2004. Global growth, per cent p.a. capital/labor ratio is a critical
6.9. 4.8. 4.6. 5.7. 7.4. China. 16.3. 24. determinant of the wages paid to workers
26.4. 24.4. 20.6. India. 6. 7.5. 8.3. 9.3. and of the rewards to capital. The more
7.1. capital each worker has, the higher will
3Each year since 2001, their combined be their productivity and pay.
contribution to global output growth has 21Real equilibrium wages down 15% (?).
been around 30 per cent. Helped to hold Multiplied with the intial shock to the
global output growth above the 4 per cent capital-labour ratio, a
threshold which is critical for improving back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests
the terms of trade for primary commodity that the inclusion of the Asian giants and
producers. Formula to compute a country’s of the former Soviet block has reduced
contribution to world growth: China’s OECD equilibrium wages by ca. 15 percent.
(India’s) growth rate times China’s A reduction of the capital stock by 1%
(India’s) percentage share in world output reduces productivity by less than 1%,
divided by the sum of China’s growth rate since capital is only one input; standard
plus the growth rate of the rest of the estimates put the number at about 0.3%.
world, each weighted by their respective 22the Stolper-Samuelson theorem The
share in world output. Heckscher-Ohlin model - the
4sources & structure. An analysis factor-proportions theory of comparative
of the determinants of growth in China advantage – also can define conditions
suggests that rapid growth should continue under which countries that are richer in
for the foreseeable future, albeit at a human and physical capital than in labour
somewhat slower rate. Thanks to capital move, as a result of China’s integration,
accumulation (investment growth), towards a lower wage level. In the context
potential growth in 2005 has reached 9.5 of China’s emergence, the predictions of
per cent. It is unlikely that the current the Stolper-Samuelson theorem seem indeed
savings rate (which has risen to 45 per to have been confirmed: A drop in the
cent of GDP) can be sustained in the long price of wage-intensive products causes a
term. But considerable room for further reduction in the real-wage rate and an
institutional and trade reforms to raise increase in the real return to capital[1].
efficiency. The continued re-allocation of If the Stolper-Samuelson theorem is
labour from agriculture to manufacturing correct and if the emergence of China and
is a further source of productivity India does reduce relative prices of
growth. Avg. 1998-2003. 2003. Employment labour-intensive products in world
Contribution. 0.3. 0.4. Capital markets, the large reductions predicted
Contribution. 4.9. 5.5. Residual Factors. above by the calibration of a simple
2.8. 3.1. - Sectoral change, 0.5. 0.7. - production function will be vindicated.
Education, 1.1. 0.8. - Multi factor [1] Edward E. Leamer (1995), “The
productivity. 1.3. 1.6. Table 2: Sources Heckscher-Ohlin Model in Theory and
of China’s Income and Output Growth, Practice”, Princeton Studies in
1998-2003 -Percentage points-. Source: International Finance, No. 77, February.
OECD (2005). 23Have a look at the Lerner-Pearce
5Table 3: China and India’s Rising diagram which depicts the Heckscher-Ohlin
Energy and Steel Use Year-on-year growth framework. Figure 5: China and
rates (per cent). The current process of Stolper-Samuelson in a Lerner-Pearce
capital deepening has spurred the drastic Diagram. The curved lines are isoquants
increase in both energy and metal use in for labour-intensive toys and for
China. China has become the largest sophisticated cars, i.e. combinations of
marginal consumer of many raw materials labour and capital to produce a Euro’s
and energy products, benefitting raw worth of output. China’s emergence shifts
material, food and energy providers in the toy isoquant outward to reflect the
Africa, Australia and Latin America. fact that, at a lower price for toys, more
Indian energy and steel use also capital and labour are needed to produce
accelerates in the second period output worth a Euro. This shift is
(2000-2003), although at are more moderate accompanied by a stretching of the
pace. Sources: China Statistical Yearbook unit-isocost line, reflecting a rise in
(2004), International Energy Agency Data 1/w and – possibly - a drop in 1/r (as
Service, Steel Statistical Yearbook wages drop and capital returns rise). The
(2004), International Iron and Steel Stolper-Samuelson theorem thus predicts
Institute. pressure on wages (where they are
6FX Reserves and US Treasury Holdings flexible, unemployment otherwise) in those
-end 2005- Source: treas.gov/tic; central sectors that compete directly with China.
banks;HKMA. FX Reserves bn US$ , of which This may be achieved through outsourcing
%UST. US Treasury Holdings bn US$ % of or offshoring of wage-intensive elements
sum. China + Hong Kong. 980 30.2. 296 of production.
13.6. India. 145 9.7. 14 0.7. 24It is not predicted, however, that
7impact of slowdown. The country wages in the rich world will fall to
examples in Table 4 illustrate that the China’s levels. First, economic
impact of a China slowdown will be uneven; integration of low-wage and high-wage
the Dornbusch-van Wijnbergen analysis countries should bring worldwide gains
helps to predict respective outcomes in a from specialisation, which will raise
general-equilibrium framework, which can total world GDP and global labour earnings
be empirically calibrated and tested. It as well. Second, where wages are high,
is likely that various outcomes on they partly reflect returns to human
macroeconomic variables may deviate capital, not just to raw labour (however,
considerably from what partial-equilibrium human capital is rising fast in China).
analysis would predict. Table 4: Selected Third, low-wage competition produces
Key Country Elements. Source: Reisen, strong incentives for advanced countries
Grandes and Pinaud (2004). to move up the value chain; this is
8What impact should a slowdown of confirmed by a wealth of empirical
China’s growth have on the world economy? evidence that shows that open economies
Soft landing (to potential output growth, grow faster than those which respond to
i.e. 9 % p.a.): a very limited impact on low-wage challenges with protectionism.
global growth, could even be positive 253. Price and Wage Effects: The
overall. Commodity exporters (Australia, Large-Country Case. raw materials. China’s
Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa) and India’s demand for raw materials has
would be the main losers, raw material been rising since the late 1990s (figure
importers benefit thanks to lower prices. 6). This exerts a growing upward pressure
Figure 1: China’s Hard vs Soft Landing. on prices , especially for those primary
92. The Global Labour Pool Has Doubled: commodities that weigh heavily in Africa’s
Lower Wages, Fatter Profits. labour & exports. Figure 6 Shares in world imports
wages Table 5. of selected primary commodities, China and
10Each country is represented by a India, 1998 and 2003. Source: UN Comtrade
horizontal line segment, with the length database.
indicating the country’s share in world 26Trade theory usually works with the
population (or labour force). China and small-country assumption: a country that
India (large populations, low per capita engages in international trade faces given
income) appear as a long line along the prices. But China (and for precious
bottom. As a look at the graph makes stones, India) has monopsony power in some
clear, wage and income convergence would raw material markets – its demand raises
be an alarming outcome from the prices. In recent years, e.g., China has
perspective of advanced countries. Figure contributed all the world growth in demand
2: The Global Labour Pool and Real Per for woods and cotton, and a third of
Capita Incomes, 1980 and 2000. Source: E. global growth for oil and metals. Table 5:
Leamer and P.K. Schott (2005), “The Rich China and India’s contribution to growth
(and Poor) Keep Getting Richer”’Harvard of world imports of selected commodities,
Business Review, Vol. 83(4), April. 1998 - 2003. Sources: IEA database and UN
11China’s Surplus Labour. Much of Comtrade.
China’s and India’s rural labour force is 27No wonder: prices have been rising
underemployed, engaged only in seasonal since 2001. Prima facie, this is good for
agricultural work with little earnings. raw material producers. Figure 7: Annual
China has about 2.5 agricultural workers percentage change in commodity import
for every hectare of arable land. And many prices, 1994-2004 -US$ per Kg-. Source: UN
of China’s construction sites and Comtrade.
labour-intensive factories are staffed 28Table 6: Volatility in Commodity
with rural migrants for who the Import Prices*. The benefits of China’s
alternative is to survive on one acre per and India’s rising global demand (net
person. According to the US Department for imports) are, nevertheless, attenuated by
Agriculture. China’s Ministry of the volatility of demand of the Asian
Agriculture estimates that rural China has giants, partly due to cyclical variations
150 million surplus workers. Add to this but importantly also to arbitrage between
urban unemployment caused by the home production and imports. Moreover, as
restructuring of loss-making state about 70-80 per cent of manufacturing
enterprises, estimated at ca. 14% in 2002. exports from China is produced by
. With employment at ca. 750 million in multinational corporations, high raw
China and an estimated annual employment material demand partially reflects
growth of 1 percent (resulting from relocation of raw material demand from
prospective GDP growth minus increases in production sites elsewhere. Such
labour productivity), we can dare a relocation does not occur without
back-of-the-envelope prediction: friction, which further fuels demand
12China’s Surplus Labour. Over the volatility. Consequently, rising raw
coming 20 years, China’s rural surplus material demand from China and India is
labour will not be exhausted. The shape not necessarily an unfettered blessing for
and speed of China’s and India’s Africa. Note: * Standard deviation of
integration into the world economy will annual percentage changes Source: Own
depend importantly on the transfer of calculations based on UN Comtrade data.
labour from mostly rural low-productivity 29manufactured goods. China’s supply
areas to mostly urban high-productivity side has weighed as well on prices. The
sectors. This process can be well rapid export growth of low-skill and
described by a core model of economic labour-intensive manufactures has
development, the Lewis-Ranis-Fei or increased the market competition for these
surplus labour model. The crucial feature goods and hence exerted a downward
of the model is that the modern sector – pressure on their prices. Focusing on the
and by extension the world economy (!) – major product-groupings (classified at the
faces an unlimited supply of labour at 8-digit level) imported into the EU where
wages not far from the subsistence level. developing-country exporters were
13Lewis model with unlimited supplies of prominent and reporting the proportion of
labour. The model is a ‘classical’ rather the sectors for which the unit-price of
than a ‘neoclassical’ model; the latter imports from different income-groups fell
would assume that labour is scarce and has between 1988 and 2001, Raphie Kaplinsky
to be bid away from other uses, an (IDS Sussex) shows that in almost one
assumption that can be hardly defended in third of these sectors the price of
view of the labour force in China and Chinese-origin products dropped. He
India. It is rather realistic to assume concludes that the greater China’s
with Arthur Lewis that the supply of participation in global product markets,
labour to the modern is perfectly elastic. the more likely prices will fall[1]. [1]
By offering a wage above the subsistence Kaplinsky, Raphie (2005), “Revisiting the
income level, the modern sector can Revisited Terms of Trade: Will China Make
attract an unlimited supply of labour. a Difference?”, mimeo, Institute for
Figure 3: The Lewis Model. Development Studies. Figure 8: Declining
14In figure 3, labour is available at World Manufacturing Export Price, 1986 –
wage w^ up to L*. As the value of the 2000. Source: Kaplinsky (2005).
marginal product of labour in the modern 30China’s terms of trade Terms of trade
sector exceeds the wage rate, profits are is defined as the ratio of the price a
high (shaded area). They are reinvested, country must receive for its export
raising the demand for labour in the commodity to the price it pay for its
modern sector so that the marginal product import commodity. Terms of trade can be
of labour curve is shifted to the right calculated using a Laspeyres index. Where
from VMPL0 to VMPL1. The model allows us price of exports in the current period
to pose the crucial question now: When and quantity of exports in the base period
how does the absorption of surplus labour price of exports in the base period price
come to a halt? Essentially, there are two of imports in the current period quantity
possibilities. Either investment of imports in the base period price of
opportunities cease to exist in the modern imports in the base period The net barter
sector (before L* is reached); for terms of trade is the ratio (expressed as
example, this will be the case where the a percentage) of relative export and
modern sector is based on the exploitation import prices when volume is held
of exhaustable resources. The drying up of constant. The gross barter terms of trade
investment opportunities leaves a modern is the ratio (expressed as a percent) of a
enclave in an economy which remains quantity index of exports to a quantity
dualistic. This possibility seems to apply index of inputs. The income terms of trade
more to the African context than for is the ratio (expressed as a percent) of
either China or India. Wage differences the value of exports to the price of
and inequality between the modern sector imports. The single factorial terms of
and the traditional, informal sector will trade is the net barter terms of trade
then persist. adjusted for changes in the productivity
15Or in China and India, however, the of exports. The double factorial terms of
expansion into the modern sector will trade adjusts for both the productivity of
eventually start to exhaust the supply of exports and the productivity of imports.
labour, and the effective labour supply 31Terms of Trade: The Large-Country
curve turns positively sloped. Rising food Case. Monopsony (buyer) power means that
prices, skills accumulation and rising China and India often do not face an
modern-sector wages will lead to a period infinitely elastic supply curve, such as
(between L* and L**) where the labour Sw, for its imports. Their demand rather
supply curve to the modern sector in terms pushes the curve up to SChina. Similar
of its own prices is upward sloping. Such effects occur with exportables, where a
a point is reached at L1, where wages rise large country’s export supply pushes up
slightly above the subsistence level to the world demand curve from Dw to The
w1. Finally with the end of unlimited existence of world market power for the
supplies of labour at the subsistence large country means that the difference
wage, the labour market becomes unified. between pre- and post-trade terms of trade
Real wages rise throughout the economy in is smaller for China (Pa- P China) than
a world turned neoclassical again where for a small country (Pa- Pt). Gains from
workers in both sectors receive the value trade are depicted by the triangle under
of their marginal products. the autarchy supply/demand curves for
16Figure 4 suggests that China is still exportables/importables and above the
miles away from reaching the point where post-trade supply/demand curves; these are
wages would start to converge between the horizontal for a small country, but upward
rural and the urban sector. In the quarter sloping for a large country. Hence, gains
century from 1978-2003, urban per capita from trade are smaller for the large
income has risen much faster than rural country as the triangle is smaller.
income; while the ratio of urban to rural 32Is China’s Growth “Immiserising”?
per capita incomes hovered around two Immiserising growth arises when an
during the 1980s, urban incomes are now increase in economic activity is
three times higher than the rural average. associated with a fall in real living
Figure 4. standards. The increased economic activity
17The Krugman-Lewis Model. How does that may be reflected in greater inputs of
China’s wage pressure spill abroad in labour (people; labour hours), capital,
theory? For an answer, Paul Krugman has land or any other resources which have an
offered a useful extension of the Lewis opportunity cost. Bhagwati (1958)[1], who
model in a three-goods (low-tech, is responsible for the modern-day
intermediate, high-tech) one-factor discussion of immiserising growth, began
(labour) perspective[1]. It is assumed by examining circumstances in which
that, say, OECD labour is more productive declining [barter] terms of trade outweigh
than Chinese labour in all three types of the benefits of growth. Also, in a world
goods, but that productivity advantage is of trade distortions, growth of production
huge in high-tech, moderate in can induce a net loss of output. For
medium-tech, and small in low-tech. example, tariffs could induce FDI
Competition will ensure that the ratio of targeting the domestic market, but with
the wage rate in the OECD area to that in such inefficiencies that the result would
China will equal the ratio of labour be less favourable than a world free of
productivity in those sectors in which tariffs (and of tariff-hopping FDI. This
workers in the two regions compete head to provides an intellectual underpinning for
head. [1] Paul Krugman (1994), “Does Third the neo-classical critique of market
World Growth Hurt First World interventions underlying industrial
Prosperity?”, www.pkarchive.org. policies. [1] Bhagwati J. N. (1958),
18If China’s productivity increase “Immiserizing Growth: A Geometrical Note”,
occurs in low-tech output, there is no Review of Economic Studies, No. 3, pp.
reason to expect the ratio of OECD to 201-5. Bhagwati, J. N. (1987),
China’s wages to change. China will “Immiserizing Growth”, in The New
produce low-tech goods more cheaply, and Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics, (J.
the fall in the price of those goods will Eatwell, M. Milgate and P. Newman, eds.),
raise real wages in the OECD (and Africa London: Macmillan .
likewise). Falling (relative) prices raise 33Figure 9: Commodity import price,
the purchasing power of importers and export volume and Terms of trade (Index:
consumers, in other words: their real 2000=100). A rapid increase in commodity
wages; so surplus labour in China benefits imports as a share of merchandise imports
in particular the low-income segments in means that the price of total imports is
the importing countries as low-tech largely affected by volatile commodity
products weigh relatively heavily in their import prices since non-commodity import
consumption. Consider the following prices are fairly stable. However, the
numerical example for wages determined by deterioration in net terms of trade is
the ratio of labour productivity in the compensated by the volume of exports which
intermediate sectors; hence wages in the expand at 25.2 per cent a year (2000-2004)
OECD area would be five times higher than against 10.3 (1995-1999). This is
in China: illustrated by steady rise in the
19Only under three conditions will purchasing power of exports at 22 per cent
higher labour productivity in China a year (2000-2004). Source: UNCTAD (2005),
translate into higher low-tech prices and Handbook of Statistics.
reduced real wages abroad: (i) 34Implications for Investors.
productivity rises in the competitive Improvement in trade-off inflation &
medium-tech sector; (ii) Chinese wages growth Equity risk premium = dividend
will rise accordingly as China has entered yield + dividend growth ./. return on
the phase where the labour supply curve risk-free asset Ex. US: 2.8% = 1.8% + 3%
starts to slope upwards; and (iii) (=GDP growth); UST = 2% Post-China =>
productivity has not risen in low-tech 4.6% = 1.8% + 4.5% ; UST = 1.7%
production, so that low-tech prices will www.oecd.org/dev/reisen.
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