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How Were Doing: Institutional Real Estate
How Were Doing: Institutional Real Estate
How Were Doing: Institutional Real Estate
How Were Doing: Institutional Real Estate
How Were Doing: Institutional Real Estate
How Were Doing: Institutional Real Estate
How Were Doing: Institutional Real Estate
How Were Doing: Institutional Real Estate
How Were Doing: Institutional Real Estate
How Were Doing: Institutional Real Estate
The Three Cs of our Disconnect
The Three Cs of our Disconnect
Spatial & Capital De-connect and Re-connect
Spatial & Capital De-connect and Re-connect
Spatial & Capital De-connect and Re-connect
Spatial & Capital De-connect and Re-connect
Spatial & Capital De-connect and Re-connect
Spatial & Capital De-connect and Re-connect
What Happened: Commoditization of Pricing
What Happened: Commoditization of Pricing
What Happened: Commoditization of Pricing
What Happened: Commoditization of Pricing
Who Responded to the Survey
Who Responded to the Survey
Who Responded to the Survey
Who Responded to the Survey
When National & Seattle Markets Bottom Out
When National & Seattle Markets Bottom Out
When National & Seattle Markets Bottom Out
When National & Seattle Markets Bottom Out
Part II: A Growing Consensus on Economy
Part II: A Growing Consensus on Economy
Part II: A Growing Consensus on Economy
Part II: A Growing Consensus on Economy
Part II: A Growing Consensus on Economy
Part II: A Growing Consensus on Economy
Part II: A Growing Consensus on Economy
Part II: A Growing Consensus on Economy
Breaking News on Real Estate & the Economy
Breaking News on Real Estate & the Economy
Breaking News on Real Estate & the Economy
Breaking News on Real Estate & the Economy
Breaking News on Real Estate & the Economy
Breaking News on Real Estate & the Economy
Breaking News on Real Estate & the Economy
Breaking News on Real Estate & the Economy
Breaking News on Real Estate & the Economy
Breaking News on Real Estate & the Economy
Breaking News on Real Estate & the Economy
Breaking News on Real Estate & the Economy
The Good News: Employment Losses Slowing
The Good News: Employment Losses Slowing
The Good News: Employment Losses Slowing
The Good News: Employment Losses Slowing
The Good News: Employment Losses Slowing
The Good News: Employment Losses Slowing
Business Cycles: An Historical Comparison
Business Cycles: An Historical Comparison
Critical Elements to Sustainable Recovery
Critical Elements to Sustainable Recovery
Critical Elements to Sustainable Recovery
Critical Elements to Sustainable Recovery
Federal Stimulus Funding: Pledged & Provided
Federal Stimulus Funding: Pledged & Provided
Federal Stimulus Funding: Pledged & Provided
Federal Stimulus Funding: Pledged & Provided
Federal Stimulus Funding: Pledged & Provided
Federal Stimulus Funding: Pledged & Provided
Federal Stimulus Funding: Pledged & Provided
Federal Stimulus Funding: Pledged & Provided
Federal Stimulus Funding: Pledged & Provided
Federal Stimulus Funding: Pledged & Provided
US Recovery Status
US Recovery Status
Business Inventories and Business Spending
Business Inventories and Business Spending
Business Inventories and Business Spending
Business Inventories and Business Spending
Business Inventories and Business Spending
Business Inventories and Business Spending
Business Inventories and Business Spending
Business Inventories and Business Spending
Focus on Small Business
Focus on Small Business
Focus on Small Business
Focus on Small Business
Housing Activity and Delinquency Rates
Housing Activity and Delinquency Rates
Housing Activity and Delinquency Rates
Housing Activity and Delinquency Rates
Housing Activity and Delinquency Rates
Housing Activity and Delinquency Rates
Housing Activity and Delinquency Rates
Housing Activity and Delinquency Rates
Residential Delinquencies, Foreclosures & Charge-Offs
Residential Delinquencies, Foreclosures & Charge-Offs
Residential Delinquencies, Foreclosures & Charge-Offs
Residential Delinquencies, Foreclosures & Charge-Offs
Residential Delinquencies, Foreclosures & Charge-Offs
Residential Delinquencies, Foreclosures & Charge-Offs
Consumer Confidence, Spending & Credit
Consumer Confidence, Spending & Credit
Consumer Confidence, Spending & Credit
Consumer Confidence, Spending & Credit
Consumer Confidence, Spending & Credit
Consumer Confidence, Spending & Credit
Consumer Confidence, Spending & Credit
Consumer Confidence, Spending & Credit
Consumer Confidence, Spending & Credit
Consumer Confidence, Spending & Credit
Global and Domestic Business Confidence
Global and Domestic Business Confidence
Global and Domestic Business Confidence
Global and Domestic Business Confidence
Global and Domestic Business Confidence
Global and Domestic Business Confidence
Global and Domestic Business Confidence
Global and Domestic Business Confidence
Global and Domestic Business Confidence
Global and Domestic Business Confidence
Global Recession Map
Global Recession Map
Global Recession Map
Global Recession Map
Global Recession Map
Global Recession Map
Part III: Real Estate Capital Markets
Part III: Real Estate Capital Markets
Current and Future National-Level Cap Rates
Current and Future National-Level Cap Rates
Current and Future National-Level Cap Rates
Current and Future National-Level Cap Rates
Current and Future National-Level Cap Rates
Current and Future National-Level Cap Rates
Current and Future Seattle-Area Cap Rates
Current and Future Seattle-Area Cap Rates
CBA: Properties for Sale Output
CBA: Properties for Sale Output
CBA: Properties for Sale Output
CBA: Properties for Sale Output
Seattle Capital Market: Agree/Not
Seattle Capital Market: Agree/Not
Commercial Leverage: Problems & Implications
Commercial Leverage: Problems & Implications
Commercial Leverage: Problems & Implications
Commercial Leverage: Problems & Implications
Bid/Ask Spread: Trends and Value Pressures
Bid/Ask Spread: Trends and Value Pressures
Distressed Asset Recovery by Source & Terms
Distressed Asset Recovery by Source & Terms
Distressed Asset Recovery by Source & Terms
Distressed Asset Recovery by Source & Terms
Distressed Asset Recovery by Source & Terms
Distressed Asset Recovery by Source & Terms
REITs: Back to the Future
REITs: Back to the Future
REITs: Back to the Future
REITs: Back to the Future
REIT Snapshot
REIT Snapshot
REIT Snapshot
REIT Snapshot
REIT Stock Prices: Retail and Office
REIT Stock Prices: Retail and Office
REIT Stock Prices: Retail and Office
REIT Stock Prices: Retail and Office
Apartment, Hotel and Diversified REITs
Apartment, Hotel and Diversified REITs
Apartment, Hotel and Diversified REITs
Apartment, Hotel and Diversified REITs
Apartment, Hotel and Diversified REITs
Apartment, Hotel and Diversified REITs
Part IV: Spatial Market
Part IV: Spatial Market
Part IV: Spatial Market
Part IV: Spatial Market
Part IV: Spatial Market
Part IV: Spatial Market
Part IV: Spatial Market
Part IV: Spatial Market
Commercial Market Fundamentals
Commercial Market Fundamentals
Commercial Market Fundamentals
Commercial Market Fundamentals
NCREIF Property Type Return Overview
NCREIF Property Type Return Overview
NCREIF Property Type Return Overview
NCREIF Property Type Return Overview
NCREIF Property Type Return Overview
NCREIF Property Type Return Overview
Risk/Return by Property Type by Regime
Risk/Return by Property Type by Regime
Risk/Return by Property Type by Regime
Risk/Return by Property Type by Regime
Risk/Return by Property Type by Regime
Risk/Return by Property Type by Regime
Risk/Return by Property Type by Regime
Risk/Return by Property Type by Regime
Office Real Estate
Office Real Estate
Retail Real Estate
Retail Real Estate
Industrial Real Estate
Industrial Real Estate
Multifamily Real Estate
Multifamily Real Estate
Hotels
Hotels
Growth in Distressed Assets by Property Type
Growth in Distressed Assets by Property Type
Growth in Distressed Assets by Property Type
Growth in Distressed Assets by Property Type
Growth in Distressed Assets by Property Type
Growth in Distressed Assets by Property Type
Growth in Distressed Assets by Property Type
Growth in Distressed Assets by Property Type
Growth in Distressed Assets by Property Type
Growth in Distressed Assets by Property Type
Whats Happening on the Distressed RE Front
Whats Happening on the Distressed RE Front
Whats Happening on the Distressed RE Front
Whats Happening on the Distressed RE Front
Whats Happening on the Distressed RE Front
Whats Happening on the Distressed RE Front
Whats Happening on the Distressed RE Front
Whats Happening on the Distressed RE Front
Distressed Asset Spillover: Why it Matters
Distressed Asset Spillover: Why it Matters
Distressed Asset Spillover: Why it Matters
Distressed Asset Spillover: Why it Matters
Distressed Asset Spillover: Why it Matters
Distressed Asset Spillover: Why it Matters
Distressed Asset Spillover: Why it Matters
Distressed Asset Spillover: Why it Matters
Distressed Asset Spillover: Why it Matters
Distressed Asset Spillover: Why it Matters
Distressed Asset Spillover: Why it Matters
Distressed Asset Spillover: Why it Matters
Distressed Loan Recovery by Property Type
Distressed Loan Recovery by Property Type
Total Returns: Seattle vs
Total Returns: Seattle vs
How Seattle Cap Rates Compare to US
How Seattle Cap Rates Compare to US
How Seattle Cap Rates Compare to US
How Seattle Cap Rates Compare to US
Seattle Institutional Returns by Property Type
Seattle Institutional Returns by Property Type
Whats Happening in Seattle
Whats Happening in Seattle
Whats Happening in Seattle
Whats Happening in Seattle
Seattle Real Estate Fundamentals: Yay/Nay
Seattle Real Estate Fundamentals: Yay/Nay
Additional Insights on Seattle Market
Additional Insights on Seattle Market
Seattle Market Risks: Significant/Not
Seattle Market Risks: Significant/Not
Issues and Risks in Seattle
Issues and Risks in Seattle
Issues and Risks in Seattle
Issues and Risks in Seattle
Part V. Real Opportunities in Seattle RE
Part V. Real Opportunities in Seattle RE
Conclusion: What to do
Conclusion: What to do
Real Estate Outlook 2010: No Bottom, No Net presented to: Seattle Chapter of the Appraisal Institute Fall Conference by: Jim DeLisle, Ph

: JR DeLisle. , . , Real Estate Outlook 2010: No Bottom, No Net presented to: Seattle Chapter of the Appraisal Institute Fall Conference by: Jim DeLisle, Ph.ppt zip- 4100 .

Real Estate Outlook 2010: No Bottom, No Net presented to: Seattle Chapter of the Appraisal Institute Fall Conference by: Jim DeLisle, Ph

Real Estate Outlook 2010: No Bottom, No Net presented to: Seattle Chapter of the Appraisal Institute Fall Conference by: Jim DeLisle, Ph.ppt
1Real Estate Outlook 2010: No Bottom, 36REITs: Back to the Future? Changing
No Net presented to: Seattle Chapter of Game? Through June, raised $12 billion in
the Appraisal Institute Fall Conference stock Who? Office: Boston Properties,
by: Jim DeLisle, Ph.D. Annotated. Select Vornado Realty Trust Retail: Regency
View Notes in PPT to read my text. Centers, Simon Property Group. Challenges
December 1, 2009 jrdelisle@jrdelisle.com. Existing Leverage Eroding Fundamentals
2Presentation Overview. I: Outlook 2010 Falling Property Values. Accretive? Buy at
Prelude II: Economic and Capital Markets 8-10, payout 4-6.
III: Real Estate Capital Markets IV: 37REIT Snapshot.
Commercial Real Estate Market Update V: 38REIT Stock Prices: Retail and Office.
Implications for Seattle Real Estate 39Apartment, Hotel and Diversified
Market. REITs.
3Butt, what the L? Three Major 40Part III Summary: Real Estate Capital
Attributes of Real Estate Revisited. L, L, Markets. Macro-economic Environment
L. Liability, Litigation, Liquidity Economy showing some signs of turning
(NOT!). Three major attributes of real Businesses struggling, credit tight
estate . . . L, L, L. Three major Consumers bearish. Real Estate Capital
attributes of real estate . . . L, L, L. . Market Still shut down; some activity
. . . . . . ulnerable, . . . . . . . increasing Rising Cap rates, tighter
ulnerable, . . . . . . . ulnerable. The credit, picky sources Major challenge in
2009 regime of real estate . . . D D D. . de-levering.
. . . . . . istressed, . . . . . . . 41Part IV: Spatial Market. Components of
istressed, . . . . . . . istressed. The Spatial Market Demand Supply. Market
2010 + regime of real estate . . . Balance.
4Commercial Real Estate: How we Got 42Commercial Market Fundamentals.
Here. Total Return. Defensive Capital $s. Vacancy Rates. Development (msf). Suburban
5How Were Doing: Institutional Real Office. Downtown Office. Industrial.
Estate. The Good News. Its not as bad as Retail. Apartments. Apartments.
it was. The Bad News. Implicit Cap Rates Industrial. Office. Retail. Source: Torto
200bp below averages. Source: NCREIF. Wheaton Research, REIS, 2009 Emerging
6The Three Cs of our Disconnect. Trends.
Credit Crisis Easy Credit Cheap Credit 43NCREIF Property Type Return Overview.
Plentiful Credit Crisis of Confidence 44Risk/Return by Property Type by
Consumer Confidence Corporate Confidence Regime.
Crisis of Collateral Value attributable to 45Office Real Estate. Overview
delinking spatial market/capital market Corporations giving back space Sublease
Values correction as marked to market activity increasing Vacancy rates rising
Re-pricing of Risk. Rents softening Credit will be tightening
7Spatial & Capital De-connect and Construction declining Areas of Concern
Re-connect. Values. Capital Market. BV Speculative projects Commodity product
(Bubble Value). Debt -20%+/- Bubble. Cap Capital Needs: Cap X, TIs Second and
Rate Rise Interest Rates/Debt Rise. third tier markets Emerging sub-markets.
Spatial Market. Cap R -20%+/- Bubble. Opportunities Abandoned Projects Entitled
Market -10-20%+/- Softening. Vacancy Up Projects Capital Needs Projects Asset
Rents Down. -40-60%. Capital Market Takeovers Distressed Owners/REO.
Bubble. Warranted Construction: Expanding 46Retail Real Estate. Overview Retail
Demand. Rising Rents. Market Inefficiency. sales tepid Inventories will be lean
8What Happened: Commoditization of Credit tight, local and regional players
Pricing. Market Risk/Return Long-Term. Retailer contraction; unit profitability
Recent: Risk/Return 5 yrs. Defensive capital to protect markets Areas
9Who Responded to the Survey? of Concern New unproven & unopened
Experience of Respondents. What stores Underperforming existing units
Specializations? JRD Prediction Number Unanchored Life-style centers Tenant
with Same Company will decline.. Others: Bankruptcies Mixed-use in marginal markets
Regulator, pension advisor, government, Niche Oversaturation. Opportunities
right-of-way, lender appraisal department, Projects with Lost Anchors Entitled/Spec
lawyer, student. Seattle MAI Respondents. Projects Capital Needs Projects Asset
10When National & Seattle Markets Takeovers Distressed Owners & REO.
Bottom Out? National. Seattle. Seattle 47Industrial Real Estate. Opportunities
Respondents. Projects w/ Lost Tenants Capital Needs
11Part II: A Growing Consensus on Projects Changing H&B Use Distressed
Economy. Seattle Respondents. Owners & REO. Overview Absorption
12Breaking News on Real Estate & the slowing Rents softening Construction
Economy. moderating Changing Logistics Models
13The Good News: Employment Losses Globalization Areas of Concern Overbuilt
Slowing. Net Employment losses. Jobless markets Functionally obsolescence Office
Claims Slowing? Unemployment. 10%. The Showroom/Flex Exports in Global Recession.
glass is half-full syndrome; wishful but 48Multifamily Real Estate. Overview
tentative. Source: economy.com. Modal Shift: Rent vs. Own Concessions
14Business Cycles: An Historical increasing Absorption slowing Vacancy
Comparison. Click for annotation. rates rising Rents softening Areas of
15Critical Elements to Sustainable Concern Homogenized Product Product
Recovery. The Future Remains Uncertain. Positioning Re-apartmenting Density as an
Few degrees of freedom; stars must stay End vs. Means Parking: Shared.
aligned. Seattle MAI Respondents. Opportunities Projects in pre-development
16Federal Stimulus Funding: Pledged Entitled but unfunded Repositioning
& Provided. Conversion (future) Distressed Owners
17US Recovery Status. & REO.
18Business Inventories and Business 49Hotels. Opportunities Projects in
Spending. Business Inventories. Business development: not finished Entitled: not
Spending. Good News: Manufacturing up. started Reflagging existing Distressed
19Focus on Small Business. Small Owners & REO. Overview High
business report tighter credit Reactions risk/return profile Travel down Companies
Cutting payrolls Reducing inventory down-scaling Occupancy falling Rates
Reducing capital spending Outlook No slipping Areas of Concern Homogenized
near-term improvement. Credit Remains Product Poor Product Positioning
Tight for Business. Source: economy.com. Hotel/Apartment/Condo Hybrids Weak flags.
20Housing Activity and Delinquency 50Growth in Distressed Assets by
Rates. Construction. Delinquency & Property Type.
Default. Housing Index. 51Whats Happening on the Distressed RE
21Residential Delinquencies, Front? Status and Location. Growth &
Foreclosures & Charge-Offs. Loan Build-up. Source: Real Capital Analytics.
Charge-Off Rates to Rise. Delinquency 52Distressed Asset Spillover: Why it
Rates. Residential Foreclosures. Source: Matters. Phipps Tower: Crescent/Manulife.
economy.com. Wells Fargo Lead, Regions Follows. Two
22Consumer Confidence, Spending & Alliance Center: Tishman. 3630 Peachtree:
Credit. Consumers are over 70% of GDP. Duke/Pope & Land. Bank of America
Butt As of October 2009, recent uptick in Lead. Regions Lead. Terminus 200: Cousins.
retail sales on Year over Year; partly Sources: RCA, WSJ 4/21/2009.
weak 2008 Consumers Contracting. Source: 53Distressed Loan Recovery by Property
economy.com. Type. Office 53% Industrial 66% Retail 72%
23Global and Domestic Business Hotel 65% Apartment 63% Development 32%
Confidence. U.S. Business Confidence. Some Land 45% Overall 60%.
improvement. But, deficit. Source: 54Part IV Summary: The Spatial Markets.
economy.com. Macro-economic Environment Economy showing
24Global Recession Map. Source: some signs of turning Businesses
economy.com. struggling, credit tight Consumers
25Part II Summary: The Economy. bearish. Real Estate Capital Market Still
Macro-economic Environment Economy showing shut down; some activity increasing Rising
some signs of turning Businesses Cap rates, tighter credit, picky sources
struggling, credit tight Consumers Major challenge in de-levering. Spatial
bearish. The Future Remains Uncertain. Market Fundamentals continue to erode
26Part III: Real Estate Capital Markets. lagging economy Vacancy rates rising,
27Current and Future National-Level Cap rents falling Stagnant demand, leasing
Rates. Most common: modes. Seattle MAI sluggish.
Respondents. 55Total Returns: Seattle vs. US.
28Current and Future Seattle-Area Cap 56How Seattle Cap Rates Compare to US?
Rates. Seattle MAI Respondents. Not as different as we thought. Challenge:
29CBA: Properties for Sale Output. Remove Volatility.
30Seattle Capital Market: Agree/Not. 57Seattle Institutional Returns by
Seattle MAI Respondents. Property Type.
31Positives. Negatives. Capital Markets 58Whats Happening in Seattle? Whats it
& Capital Flows. Investment all About?
Preferences Core assets at distressed 59Seattle Real Estate Fundamentals:
prices Major markets, strong assets Timing Yay/Nay? Seattle MAI Respondents.
Still waiting for bottom Indecisive; 60Additional Insights on Seattle Market.
slower to act Opportunities Cash Distress Seattle MAI Respondents.
Takeovers. Decreased capital flows 61Seattle Market Risks: Significant/Not.
Investors still frozen Debt limited Seattle MAI Respondents.
sources & tighter Access & yield 62Issues and Risks in Seattle. Issues.
for equity Capital Market Challenges Risks. Seattle MAI Respondents.
Refinancing: volume & status Weakening 63Part V. Real Opportunities in
fundamentals Surge in distressed assets Seattle RE. Seattle MAI Respondents.
Valuations & mark-to-market Growing 64Other Challenges: Players and
pressure to act.. Products. Players Emergence of new players
32Commercial Leverage: Problems & will create further problems Many na?ve
Implications. Tightened Credit Higher DCRs buyers will clog up the system
and LVs Hard valuations, less financial Intermediaries will raise capital but
engineering Recourse debt Real equity struggle to deploy Infrastructure not in
positions Outlook for Commercial Debt place to deal with sheer volume of deals
Limited supply; flight to quality Tighter; New Funds Expect a spate of new funds,
increased equity and recourse Refinancing some with experience others not Closed-end
Crisis No obvious sources of debt Banks fund structures will be popular Off-shore
struggling with carry-over problems No investors will be a major target for money
CMBS resurgence. managers Products A spate of new products
33Bid/Ask Spread: Trends and Value will be introduced to lay off risk New
Pressures. Bid/Ask De-Compression Partnership arrangements will match
Distressed Sellers will have to act expertise with capital. Seattle MAI
Distressed Assets will face melt-down Respondents.
risks Mark-to-Market Accounts NCREIF - 35% 65Challenges to Appraisers. Personal
w/o Distressed Sales Going Forward: Three Showing value of services Survival Low
Strikes Comps Down as Assets Dumped NOI fees and lower respect Valuation
Erosion, Vacancy & Rents Debt & Determining market value Determining when
Equity Yields Up Appraisals under distressed prices are the market
increasing scrutiny. Confirming details of all transactions
34Distressed Asset Recovery by Source Staying on top of market and explaining it
& Terms. Dealing with diverse leases and
35Players in Distressed Asset Market. transactions. Seattle MAI Respondents.
REITs Have reversed downward spiral 66Conclusion: What to do? Back to
Significant new capital raised through School? So, To Walk, To Talk, To Walk the
Sept 2009 Low Dividends suggest accretive Talk???That is the question. There is no
opportunities Global Investors Western one answer. Critical thinking and
European Middle East Asia/Australia survival instincts will rule If not,
Domestic Funds Significant growth in US theres always school. Back to the
New Opportunity Funds New Value-Plus Future.. http://jrdelisle.com.
Funds.
Real Estate Outlook 2010: No Bottom, No Net presented to: Seattle Chapter of the Appraisal Institute Fall Conference by: Jim DeLisle, Ph.ppt
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Real Estate Outlook 2010: No Bottom, No Net presented to: Seattle Chapter of the Appraisal Institute Fall Conference by: Jim DeLisle, Ph

Real Estate Outlook 2010: No Bottom, No Net presented to: Seattle Chapter of the Appraisal Institute Fall Conference by: Jim DeLisle, Ph

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