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Trade
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Imports are also increasing rapidly
Imports are also increasing rapidly
Imports are also increasing rapidly
Imports are also increasing rapidly
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The Asian Drivers and Angola

содержание презентации «The Asian Drivers and Angola.ppt»
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1The Asian Drivers and Angola. Renato 11Paris Club. Angola is excluded from
Aguilar Gothenburg University, Sweden concessional financing. It has to borrow
Renato.Aguilar@economics.gu.se. expensively in secondary markets, against
2Understanding a relationship. Several oil. March, 2006. R. Aguilar. 11.
different approaches are important for 12Chinese Finance and Investments. A
understanding the relationship between 2.billion credit with a 17-year maturity,
Angola, on the one side, and China and including a 5-year period of grace, and a
India, on the other side. The structure of 1.5 percent interest rate per annum. This
Angola’s economy. The impact of oil is an Eximbank credit that excludes
markets. The evolution of trade. Angola’s non-Chinese providers. Thus, the real cost
financial problem. The political economy is bit higher, but still much cheaper than
of this relation. March, 2006. R. Aguilar. usual financing to Angola. A few direct
2. investments, mostly in trade and industry.
3The Structure of Angola’s economy. A March, 2006. R. Aguilar. 12.
number of features of Angola’s economy are 13Conclusions. The empirical evidence
crucial for understanding the new suggest that India and, especially, China
relationship with Angola and India. Oil are rapidly increasing their shares in
specialization. Macroeconomic instability. Angola’s markets. To some extent this is a
Financial problems. Relationship with the natural consequence of the rapid growth of
IMF. March, 2006. R. Aguilar. 3. two quite large economies. This is also
4Oil Specialization. Angola’s economy happening in other markets around the
is mostly oil. March, 2006. R. Aguilar. 4. world. March, 2006. R. Aguilar. 13.
5Oil Markets. Three Different 14Especial features of this process.
perspectives on Oil. China and Oil. India This process is faster in Angola than
and Oil. Angola and Oil. March, 2006. R. elsewhere. But Angola is through a period
Aguilar. 5. of rapid growth and structural change).
6China and Oil. Increasing energy Especially in the case of China it has a
demand because of rapid GDP growth. strong financial dimension. But Angola has
Strongly biased towards coal. serious financial problems. There is an
Environmental considerations and investment dimension. March, 2006. R.
international pressure to move towards oil Aguilar. 14.
and gas. In spite of improvements in the 15How important is this for Angola? Both
efficiency of use of energy and oil, China and India provide financing for a
demand is expected to grow at 4.5 percent strategically important purpose:
annually. March, 2006. R. Aguilar. 6. infrastructure recovery and agricultural
7Angola and Oil. Already the second development. This financing was provided
largest African producer. Reserves: 5.4 when most of the concessional financial
billion barrels. Reserves increasing sources were closed. Increased trade with
faster than depletion. A rather well China and India has led to a more
managed sector. A large state-owned firm, diversified trade. The losers have been
SONANGOL, a main player in this market and mostly the EU (exception: Portugal) and,
the regulator. March, 2006. R. Aguilar. 7. possibly, South Africa and other African
8The Asian Drivers in Angola’s Oil. partners. March, 2006. R. Aguilar. 15.
China is already Angola’s second customer, 16Are China and India playing an
and Angola a large provider for China. important role in Angola? China has only a
India has no significant imports from junior position in two blocks and India a
Angola. China is a junior partner in two minor position in the diamonds sector.
blocks. India failed to acquire a This is unlikely to increase to
participation in a block. March, 2006. R. significant positions. Angola’s economic
Aguilar. 8. leadership has a decreasing interest in
9Trade. Angola’s exports are almost reaching a agreement with the IMF and the
exclusively oil, diamonds, and gas. The Paris Club, because the financing sources
main customer is the U.S. (decreasing found in China and India, but also in
followed by China (increasing) and the EU Brazil and other non Paris Club countries.
(decreasing). An increased diversification March, 2006. R. Aguilar. 16.
in exports. March, 2006. R. Aguilar. 9. 17Possible risks. The conditionality is
10Imports are also increasing rapidly. different with the new partners. There is
China and India have increased their “some” conditionality: Clear rules and
shares. But also Brazil. The EU has a controls for payments and use of the
decreasing share (exception Portugal) and funds. Conditionality with the older
more recently South Africa. An increased partners was not unique and not
diversification. March, 2006. R. Aguilar. necessarily consistent. Monitoring was
10. poor and unsystematic. The leverage was
11Financial Problems. External Debt. Not small because the funds were small as
too large (less than GDP). Short Profile. compared to the needs. Effect on poverty
Mostly arrears and short-term loans. unknown but possibly positive. March,
Unable too reach an agreement with the 2006. R. Aguilar. 17.
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The Asian Drivers and Angola

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