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The effect of mergers and acquisitions on companies’ fundamental
The effect of mergers and acquisitions on companies’ fundamental
Motivation
Motivation
The Residual Income Model
The Residual Income Model
photo
photo
General results of modeling
General results of modeling
Elena Rogova, erogova@hse
Elena Rogova, erogova@hse
Elena Rogova, erogova@hse
Elena Rogova, erogova@hse
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The effect of mergers and acquisitions on companies fundamental values in emerging capital markets (the case of BRICS)

содержание презентации «The effect of mergers and acquisitions on companies fundamental values in emerging capital markets (the case of BRICS).ppt»
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1The effect of mergers and acquisitions 135960.805. Schwarz criterion. 5991.460.
on companies’ fundamental values in 5991.460. Hannan-Quinn criterion.
emerging capital markets (the case of 5973.018. 12/7/2015. GSOM Emerging Markets
BRICS). Daria luzina, national research Conference 2015. 13. 13.
university higher school of economics at 14Binary choice model. dependent
st.-Petersburg, darialuzina@hotmail.Com variable is the qualitative effect of the
еlena rogova, national research university deal, the creation or destruction of the
higher school of economics at fundamental value of the company per
st.-Petersburg, erogova@hse.Ru. share. photo. Фот. Фот. where ? is the
2Motivation. Фото. photo. Фот. Фото. vector of parameters; Zi means the vector
photo. Фото. Фото. photo. Фото. 12/7/2015. of independent variables, characterizing
GSOM Emerging Markets Conference 2015. 2. the deal i; ?i is the model error. photo.
Высшая школа экономики, Санкт-Петербург, Фото. Фото. photo. Фото. Фото. 12/7/2015.
2015. 07.12.2015. GSOM Emerging Markets
3Mergers and acquisitions at emerging Conference 2015. 14. 14.
capital markets. Фото. Фото. photo. Фот. 15General results of modeling. photo.
Фото. Фото. photo. Фото. Фото. Фото. Фот. Фот. photo. Фото. Фото. photo. Фото.
photo. Фото. The reasons of BRICS leading Фото. 12/7/2015. GSOM Emerging Markets
role in M&As. 12/7/2015. GSOM Emerging Conference 2015. 15. 15.
Markets Conference 2015. 3. Thomson 16Model-based conclusion. Deal type.
Reuters. (2014). Preliminary Mergers & According to the results of two models of
Acquisitions Review. First Quarter 2014. binary choice (mode 1), deals related as
Высшая школа экономики, Санкт-Петербург, acquisitions (dtypeacq), have a negative
2015. Высшая школа экономики, impact on the probability of creating a
Санкт-Петербург, 2015. fundamental value for the acquiring
4Research objectives. The aim - to company. The method of deal financing. All
analyze the effect of mergers and four models of binary choice report that
acquisitions on the fundamental value of the deal funded with the capital increase
acquiring companies in emerging capital (dfincspincr) improves the probability of
markets. The task was to investigate, a positive effect on the company's
whether M&A deals create or destroy fundamental value. Sector of economy.
the fundamental value of acquirers; which Models of binary choice have shown the
factors has the strongest impact at the negative impact for acquirers in the
effect of M&As on the fundamental chemical industry (iduschem). A similar
value. photo. Фот. Фот. photo. Фото. Фото. effect is observed for the oil and gas
photo. Фото. Фото. 12/7/2015. GSOM companies (indusoilgas) and to the
Emerging Markets Conference 2015. 4. steel-processing industry (indussteel). If
Высшая школа экономики, 2015. an acquirer is operating in the coal
5Findings from literature. Market industry (induscoal) and real estate
reaction analysis (event studies) - Wong (indusrealest), there is a greater
et. al (2009), Chi et al. (2011), likelihood of creating fundamental value
Ivashkovskaya, Shamraeva, Grigoriadi as a result of M&A. So the hypothesis
(2009), Rani et. al (2014) – the 10 is confirmed. photo. Фот. Фот. photo.
information on M&As results in a Фото. Фото. photo. Фото. Фото. 12/7/2015.
positive cumulative abnormal returns at GSOM Emerging Markets Conference 2015. 16.
the market, i.e., creates value 16.
Grigorieva, Grinchenko (2013) – for 17Model-based conclusion. Method of deal
companies in Russia the effect was payment. As a result of a binary choice
negative. Financial reporting analysis - model (mode 2) deals paid through deferred
Mantravadi , Reddy (2008), Kumar (2009), payment (dmpaymdefpaym) and earn-out
Grigorieva, Troickiy (2012), Grigorieva, payment (dmpaymeout), have a greater
Petrunina (2013) – controversial results, chance of creating a fundamental value for
depending on industry, period and methods. the acquiring company. Thus, the
photo. Фот. Фот. photo. Фото. Фото. photo. hypothesis 4 cannot be rejected at the 1%
Фото. Фото. 12/7/2015. GSOM Emerging level of significance. Quantitative
Markets Conference 2015. 5. 5. factors. Models of binary choice (mode 2)
6The Residual Income Model. Фото. shown that acquiring companies with
photo. Фот. Фот. Фото. photo. Фото. Фото. greater market capitalization before the
Фото. photo. Фото. Фото. Proposed by deal (predmarkcap) have a greater chance
Ohlson (1985). The high explanatory power of creating a fundamental value. Thus, the
of the RIV model was confirmed by numerous hypothesis 3 is rejected at the 10%
empirical studies (Feltham, Ohlson, 1995; significance level. Deal country of origin
Frankel, Lee, 1998; Hand, Landsman, 1998; turned out to be insignificant in all the
Dechow et al., 1999; Volkov, Berezinets, models, which does not allow, in the
2006; Buhvalov and Akulaeva, 2014. But framework of the research, to test the
there is no studies of M&As at hypothesis 2. With regard to other
emerging markets, based on RIV. 12/7/2015. significant covariates there are
GSOM Emerging Markets Conference 2015. 6. contradictions in different models that do
Высшая школа экономики, Санкт-Петербург, not allow asserting their influence on the
2015. Высшая школа экономики, 2015. dependent variable. photo. Фот. Фот.
7RIV adjustment to analysis of M&As photo. Фото. Фото. photo. Фото. Фото.
effect on fundamental value of acquiring 12/7/2015. GSOM Emerging Markets
companies. Фото. Фото. photo. Фот. Фот. Conference 2015. 17. 17.
Фото. Фото. photo. Фото. Фото. Фото. Фото. 18General conclusions. Mergers and
photo. Фото. Фото. 12/7/2015. GSOM acquisitions in BRICS countries lead to an
Emerging Markets Conference 2015. 7. increase in the fundamental value per
Высшая школа экономики, Санкт-Петербург, share of the acquiring company. Factors
2015. Высшая школа экономики, that have a significant impact on the
Санкт-Петербург, 2015. Высшая школа effect of mergers and acquisitions,
экономики, 2015. resulting in a higher probability of value
8Hypotheses. Фото. Фото. Фото. photo. creation, include: transaction type,
Фот. Фот. Фото. Фото. Фото. photo. Фото. company size, industry affiliation, way of
Фото. Фото. Фото. Фото. photo. Фото. Фото. deal financing and the method of payment.
12/7/2015. GSOM Emerging Markets These results have not only theoretical
Conference 2015. 8. Высшая школа but also practical importance, since they
экономики, Санкт-Петербург, 2015. Высшая allow the financial management of
школа экономики, Санкт-Петербург, 2015. companies operating in emerging markets,
Высшая школа экономики, Санкт-Петербург, including Russian, to design and implement
2015. Высшая школа экономики, 2015. mergers and acquisitions so as to create
9Data Sampling. Databases Zephyr and value for investors. photo. Фот. Фот.
Ruslana by Bureau Van Dijk Information photo. Фото. Фото. photo. Фото. Фото.
from Bloomberg, Thompson Reuters Financial 12/7/2015. GSOM Emerging Markets
reporting in public access. photo. Фот. Conference 2015. 18. 18.
Фот. photo. Фото. Фото. photo. Фото. Фото. 19Elena Rogova, erogova@hse.ru Daria
12/7/2015. GSOM Emerging Markets Luzina, darialuzina@hotmail.com. 20,
Conference 2015. 9. 9. Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, Russia, 101000
10Deals effect on acquirers’ fundamental Tel.: +7 (495) 628-8829, Fax: +7 (495)
value. Country. Total number of deals. 628-7931 www.hse.ru.
Positive effect (?V>0). Negative effect 20Calculation details and assumptions.
(?V<0). Brazil. 76. 57. 19. Russia. 97. photo. Фот. Фот. photo. Фото. Фото. photo.
76. 21. India. 46. 38. 8. China. 128. 106. Фото. Фото. For valuation of the
22. South Africa. 19. 18. 1. Total. 366. pre-acquisition value future earnings per
295. 71. Фото. photo. Фот. Фот. Фото. share (EPS) were calculated by multiplying
photo. Фото. Фото. Фото. Student’s t for the forecast of ROE at the predicted value
Vpre and Vpost = 2,337 at 5-% significance BPS at the beginning of the year for each
level Hypotheses 1 cannot be rejected. future period. For a forecast of ROE an
photo. Фото. Фото. 10. 12/7/2015. GSOM average ROE of the acquiring company in
Emerging Markets Conference 2015. 10. 10. period from -3 to -1 were used (Frankel,
Высшая школа экономики, Санкт-Петербург, Lee, 1998). The BPS for the period 0 is
2015. calculated as the book value of equity per
11Factor analysis of deals’ effect on share for the period -1, added to the
fundamental value. To assess the influence predicted value of EPS and diminished at
of various characteristics of the deal at expected dividends of the period 0.
its effect expressed by ?V , the following Similar calculations are made for other
regression equation was estimated by OLS: periods. For calculation of future DPS the
photo. Фот. Фот. where difinvalue is the expected value of EPS is multiplied at the
dependent variable, calculated difference expected dividend payout ratio. Dividend
between the fundamental value per share of payout ratio is calculated as the average
the acquirer before and after the deal i, of dividend payout ratios for periods from
? denotes the vector of parameters; Xi is -3 to -1. The period where the income is
the vector of independent variables, negative is excluded from the
characterizing the deal i; ?i is the model calculations. If the company carries
error. photo. Фото. Фото. 12/7/2015. GSOM losses at all pre-acquisition periods or
Emerging Markets Conference 2015. 11. 11. if the predicted value of EPS is negative,
Высшая школа экономики, 2015. it is assumed that future dividends equal
12photo. Фот. Фот. photo. Фото. Фото. to dividends for period -1. As the cost of
photo. Фото. Фото. 12/7/2015. GSOM equity (re) we used a time-varying
Emerging Markets Conference 2015. 12. 12. discount rate for every company calculated
13Regression model: OLS. Variable. on the base of the CAPM. The country risk
Coefficient. Std. error. t-statistics. premium was calculated in accordance with
P-value. const. -33.394. 55.949. -0.5969. the approach proposed by Damodaran (2009).
0.5510. dtypecapincr. 1445.30. 523.289. As the risk-free rate of return the US
2.7620. 0.0061***`. photo. Фот. Фот. Treasury bonds were applied. The cost of
dtypeminorstake. 848.623. 348.571. 2.4346. capital calculated for the period -1, is
0.0154**. dfinconvert. -815.814. 300.239. used to calculate the expected
-2.7172. 0.0069***. dfinprivplac. pre-acquisition fundamental value, whereas
-1411.760. 494.767. -2.8534. 0.0046***. for the calculation of the
indusbank. 1445.240. 523.829. 2.7618. post-acquisition fundamental value the
0.0061***. photo. Фото. Фото. induspow. average value re for periods 0-3 is
-348.993. 140.579. -2.4825. 0.0135**. considered. If the terminal value is
dmpaymconvdt. -1428.34. 573.516. -2.4905. negative, it is replaced by a null value.
0/0132. Mean dependent var. 290.855. If acquirers cease their existence within
290.855. S.D. dependent var. 1615.318. Sum four years after the transaction, then the
squared resid. 7.44e+08. 7.44e+08. S.E. of year of "death" is taken for the
regression. 1494.659. R-squared. 0.1614. final period of the analysis. 12/7/2015.
0.1614. Adjusted R-squared. 0.1438. photo. GSOM Emerging Markets Conference 2015. 20.
Фото. Фото. Log. likelihood. -2979.402. 20.
-2979.402. Akaike info criterion.
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The effect of mergers and acquisitions on companies fundamental values in emerging capital markets (the case of BRICS)

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