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Tales of Two Institutions
Tales of Two Institutions
The First Industrial Revolution: a Puzzle for Growth Economists
The First Industrial Revolution: a Puzzle for Growth Economists
The First Industrial Revolution: a Puzzle for Growth Economists
The First Industrial Revolution: a Puzzle for Growth Economists
The First Industrial Revolution: a Puzzle for Growth Economists
The First Industrial Revolution: a Puzzle for Growth Economists
The First Industrial Revolution: a Puzzle for Growth Economists
The First Industrial Revolution: a Puzzle for Growth Economists
The First Industrial Revolution: a Puzzle for Growth Economists
The First Industrial Revolution: a Puzzle for Growth Economists
The First Industrial Revolution: a Puzzle for Growth Economists
The First Industrial Revolution: a Puzzle for Growth Economists
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The First Industrial Revolution: a Puzzle for Growth Economists

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1The First Industrial Revolution: a 19success not guaranteed Inventions and
Puzzle for Growth Economists. Nick Crafts market demand The Peso Problem
and Larry Neal. Macro-inventions NEG and agglomerations.
2The Holy Grail. To explain the 20Endogenous Innovation Models. Expected
sustained acceleration in economic growth technological progress is faster if
in Britain during the Industrial appropriability of returns improves
Revolution The Good News: the explicandum productivity of R & D inputs goes up
is better described The Bad News: markets get bigger.
endogenous growth theory does not yet have 21Endogenous Growth. Schumpeter
a persuasive model that fits the facts. relationship (high ?). x. Schumpeter (low
3British Industrial Revolution. Modest ?). Solow (high s). Solow steady-state
growth Escape from ‘Malthusian Trap’ Large relationship (low s).
structural change No take-off but TFP 22Growth Potential. In later 18th
growth increases significantly. century quite probable that growth
4Growth in Britain (% per year). potential higher in Britain than in France
5Malthusian Model Crafts & Mills or 16th_century Britain (cf. Crafts, 1995)
(2007). LogW = ? - ?LogPop + ?t Trend Britain better at micro-inventions but
growth of W is zero till 1800 while ‘Iron what does that tell us about the ex-ante
Law’ of wages allows population growth at probability of making the decisive
?/? =0.5% pre-1800, = 2% post-1800 based inventions in cotton and getting ahead in
on higher ? English population in 1800 was the key sector ?
3 x 1550 population but no sign of 23Implications for Unified Growth
positive feedback from population to Theory. Industrial revolution is more than
technological progress The key feature of a scale effect of bigger population (cf.
the industrial revolution is the dog that Kremer, 1993) Period of sustained
didn’t bark – rapid population growth was demographic pressure is prolonged and
sustained without a collapse in real escape from Malthusian Trap involves
wages. substantial increase in TFP growth (cf.
6Employment Composition (%). Galor & Weil, 2000) Understanding the
7Agricultural/Total Employment at acceleration of technological progress is
British 1840 Income Level (%). central; the ‘national innovation system’
8Family to Capitalist Farming. (cf Mokyr, 2002) not the size of the
Disappearance of small farms Release of population is the heart of the matter.
surplus labour Promotes industrialization 24Role of Markets: Land, Labor, Capital,
‘Explains’ British divergence from Entrepreneurs. Markets allocate resources
‘European Norm’. more efficiently than alternative methods:
9Simulated 1841 Economy Crafts & Command economies Custom in traditional
Harley (2004). Actual. 2/3. Peasant. economies Hicks’ dilemma: Command is usual
Agricultural Output. 100. 105. Industrial response to shocks Custom emerges in
Output. 100. 69. Agricultural Employment absence of shocks.
(%). 22. 47. Industrial Employment (%). 25Role of Finance: Mobilize Resources.
41. 28. Hicks’ resolution of dilemma: European
10Institutions, Theory. “Rules of the invention of city-states governed by
game” set incentives and constraints for merchant elites committed to maintenance
“play” by economic agents. “Winners” of markets Neal’s resolution of dilemma:
become incumbents, resist institutional Governments that use debt markets to
change “Losers” adapt, exit, or revolt. respond to shocks committed to use labor
11Institutions are persistent. New rules and capital markets as well.
emerge in response to external shocks; 26Tales of Two Institutions.
they do not evolve gradually New 27Tales of Two Institutions.
institutions are conditioned by 28
adaptations of past losers New 29
institutions are fragile; reversals are 30Tales of Two Revolutions. Bordo-White
typical. Legitimacy is hard to establish. compare UK & France during Napoleonic
12Institutions Matter. Modern economic Wars UK wins, despite flexible exchange
growth associated with modern rates, fiat currency, and tax shocks. Why?
institutions: nation state secularism Credible commitment for debt France loses,
constitutional government extension of the despite fixed exchange rates, and balanced
franchise. budget. Why? Napoleon’s defeat in Russia.
13Institutions Matter. Issue of 31Neal’s Tale of Two Revolutions.
causality confounded by advantages of Capital flight initiated by French
backwardness for followers, who can: revolution elimination of feudal rights
substitute capital skip learning stages Capital fled to merchant centers
adopt most advanced technology import throughout Europe, using private trade
capital, skills, institutions. credit circuits British war finance
14Slow TFP Growth. Uneven technological resumes on 18th c. model, fails with fall
progress Slow incremental improvements and of Amsterdam, leads to paper pound.
diffusion of well-known inventions, e.g. 32Neal’s Tale of French Revolution.
steam power Disincentives to innovative Flexible exchange rate of pound “locks in”
activity Confirmed by growth of wages foreign capital in London’s capital market
(Clark, 2005). Continental Blockade destroys UK system of
15TFP Growth. Much slower and less war finance, as intended Napoleon’s
pervasive than ‘old-hat view’ believed capital levies throughout conquered Europe
Sustained acceleration from 2nd quarter of increase flight capital to London.
19th century indicates new era of growth 33
Note the (delayed) impact of steam. 34
16Total Steam Contribution to Growth of 35
Labour Productivity (% per year). Source: 36
Crafts (2003): includes railway, 37Tale of Two Revolutions. France:
steamships, steam engines. establishes property rights, rule of law,
171780-1860: Ingenuity or Abstention ? constitutional monarchy, and funded
Crafts (2004b). TFP growth accounted for government debt by end of 1815. New
less than 30% of GDP growth TFP growth institutions constantly under threat and
accounted for 70% of labour productivity revised periodically through 1871. Lesson:
growth TFP growth and new varieties of Institutions matter, but hard to
capital goods accounted for 87% of labour legitimate and incorporate in new setting.
productivity growth. 38Tale of Two Revolutions. Great
18Sources of Labour Productivity Growth, Britain: switches capital formation to
1780-1860 (Crafts, 2005) (% per year). capital goods industry, reducing relative
Capital Deepening. 0.22. Modernized cost of capital permanently (cf. Hicks)
Sectors. 0.12. Agriculture. -0.03. Other. Key to success is arms-length financial
0.13. TFP. 0.56. Modernized Sectors. 0.34. markets maintained by government
Agriculture. 0.19. Other. 0.03. Labour throughout conflicts with France Postwar
Productivity Growth. 0.78. settlement difficult: Corn Laws,
19Why Was Britain First ? Timing of repatriation of capital, de-mobilization,
acceleration in TFP growth much harder to TFP resumes rise by 1830, accelerates
explain than structural change Search but after 1850.
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