Тексты на английском
<<  The Peltier Effect The Advance of Democracy: Third French Republic, United Kingdom, German Empire  >>
Probabilistic models: definitions
Probabilistic models: definitions
Mrs
Mrs
Картинки из презентации «Uncertain Demand: The Newsvendor Model» к уроку английского языка на тему «Тексты на английском»

Автор: Liu Liming. Чтобы познакомиться с картинкой полного размера, нажмите на её эскиз. Чтобы можно было использовать все картинки для урока английского языка, скачайте бесплатно презентацию «Uncertain Demand: The Newsvendor Model.ppt» со всеми картинками в zip-архиве размером 121 КБ.

Uncertain Demand: The Newsvendor Model

содержание презентации «Uncertain Demand: The Newsvendor Model.ppt»
Сл Текст Сл Текст
1Inventory Models. Uncertain Demand: 922. 24. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 36.
The Newsvendor Model. Probability. .05. .10. .15. .20. .20. .15.
2Background: expected value. A fruit .10. .05.
seller example. Undamaged mango. Damaged 10Stockout and Markdown Risks. 1. Mrs.
mango. Profit. $ 4. $ 1. Probability. 80%. Kandell has only one chance to order until
20%. What is the expected profit for a the sales begin: no information to revise
stock of 100 mangoes ? 0.8 x 100 ($4) + the forecast; after the sales start: too
0.2 x 100 x ($1) = 320 + 20 = $340. random late to order more. 2. She has to decide
variable: ai. probability: pi. Expected an order quantity Q now. D total demand
value = a1 p1 + a2 p2 + … + ak pk = Si = before Christmas F(x) the demand
1,,k aipi. distribution, D > Q ? stockout, at a
3Probabilistic models: Flower seller cost of: cu (D – Q)+ = cu max{D –Q, 0} D
example. Wedding bouquets: Selling price: < Q ? overstock, at a cost of co (Q–D)+
$50 (if sold on same day), $ 0 (if not = co max{Q – D, 0}.
sold on that day) Cost = $35. number of 11Key elements of the model. 1.
bouquets. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Uncertain demand 2. One chance to order
probability. 0.05. 0.12. 0.20. 0.24. 0.17. (long) before demand 3. ( order >
0.14. 0.08. How many bouquets should he demand OR order < demand) ? COST.
make each morning to maximize the expected 12Model development. Stockout cost = cu
profit? max{D –Q, 0} Overstock cost = co max{Q –
4Probabilistic models: Flower seller D, 0}. Total cost = G(Q) = cu (D – Q)+ +
example.. number of bouquets. 3. 4. 5. 6. co (Q – D)+.
7. 8. 9. probability. 0.05. 0.12. 0.20. 13Model Development: generalization.
0.24. 0.17. 0.14. 0.08. CASE 1: Make 3 Suppose Demand ? a continuous variable ++
bouquets probability( demand ? 3) = 1. good approximation when number of
Exp. Profit = 3x50 – 3x35 = $45. CASE 2: possibilities is high -- difficult to
Make 4 bouquets if demand = 3, then generate probabilities, but… ++
revenue = 3x $50 = $150 if demand = 4 or probability distribution can be guessed.
more, then revenue = 4x $50 = $200. prob = 14Model solution. g(Q) is a convex
0.05. prob = 0.95. Exp. Profit = 150x0.05 function: it has a unique minimum when
+ 200x0.95 – 4x35 = $57.5. g(Q) is at minimum value, F(Q) = cu/(cu +
5Probabilistic models: Flower seller co).
example. Compute expected profit for each 15The Critical Ratio. Solution to the
case ? number of bouquets. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Newsvendor problem: ? = cu /(co + cu ) is
8. 9. probability. 0.05. 0.12. 0.20. 0.24. called the critical ratio. b ? relative
0.17. 0.14. 0.08. Expected profit. 45. importance of stockout cost vs. markdown
57.5. 64. 60.5. 45. 21. -10. Making 5 cost.
bouquets will maximize expected profit. 16Mrs. Kandell’s Problem, solved: co =
6Probabilistic models: definitions. 25 – 15 = $10. cu = 55 – 25 = $30. ? = cu
Discrete random variable. Probability (sum /(co + cu ) = 30/(30 + 10) = 0.75. Past
of all likelihoods = 1). Continuous random Data. ? optimum ? 31. NOTE: E(D) = 22x
variable: Example, height of people in a 0.05 + 24 x 0.1 + … + 36 x 0.05 = 29.
city. Probability density function (area 17Newsvendor model: effect of critical
under curve = integral over entire range = ratio. ? = cu /(co + cu ) = 30/(30 + 10) =
1). number of bouquets. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 0.75 ? optimum: 31. ? overstock cost less
9. probability. 0.05. 0.12. 0.20. 0.24. significant ? order more. ? overstock cost
0.17. 0.14. 0.08. dominates ? order less.
7Probabilistic models: normal 18Summary. When demand is uncertain, we
distribution function. Standard normal minimize expected costs newsvendor model:
distribution curve: mean = 0, std dev. = single period, with over- and under-stock
1. P( a? x ? b) = ?ab f(x) dx. Property: costs Critical ratio determines the
normally distributed random variable x, optimum order point Critical ratio affects
mean = m, standard deviation = s, the direction and magnitude of order
Corresponding standard random variable: z quantity.
= (x – m)/ s z is normally distributed, 19Concluding remarks on inventory
with a m = 0 and s = 1. control. Inventory costs lead to
8The Newsvendor Model. Assumptions: - success/failure of a company. Drive to
Plan for single period inventory level - reduce inventory costs was main motivation
Demand is unknown - p(y) = probability( for Supply Chain Management. Example: Dell
demand = y), known - Zero setup (ordering) Inc. “Dell's direct model enables us to
cost. keep low component inventories that enable
9Example: Mrs. Kandell’s Christmas Tree us to give customers immediate savings
Shop. Order for Christmas trees must be when component prices are reduced, ...
placed in Sept. How many trees should she Because of our inventory management, Dell
order? If she orders too few, the unit is able to offer some of the newest
shortage cost is cu = 55 – 25 = $30. If technologies at low prices while our
she orders too many, the unit overage cost competitors struggle to sell off older
is co = 25 – 15 = $10. Past Data. Sales. products.”. next: Quality Control.
Uncertain Demand: The Newsvendor Model.ppt
http://900igr.net/kartinka/anglijskij-jazyk/uncertain-demand-the-newsvendor-model-239375.html
cсылка на страницу

Uncertain Demand: The Newsvendor Model

другие презентации на тему «Uncertain Demand: The Newsvendor Model»

«The green movement» - The main objective — to achieve the decision of global environmental problems, including by attraction to them of attention of the public and the authorities. National offices Green Peace are opened in 43 countries of the world as the independent units working over achievement of the purposes of the national projects.

«The animals» - BOBCAT. FLAMINGO. The animals which live in the polar regions. The animals which live in the forest. KANGAROO. FISH. The animals which live in a SAVANNA. KOALA. WHALE. PENGUIN. GIRAFFE. GRIFFIN. TIGER. GORILLA. PANDA. The animals which live in the rainforest and tropics. ZEBRA. SEA-HORSE. LION. BEAR.

«The english-speaking countries» - The English-speaking countries. Scotland. Disneyland. Great Britain. Australia. USA.

«Женщина the woman» - « Der mann»- нем. Пути пополнения лексической группы «женщина» в английском языке. Chicken’s mind- Куриные мозги. 9 семантических подгрупп, характеризующих женщин по: Наименование молодой девушки в современном английском языке. The wife is the key to the house. Холостому помогай боже, а женатому хозяйка поможет.

«Olympic games 2012» - Talismans of Games – Wenlock and Mandeville. Medal standings. Opening Ceremony. Sports facilities. Summer Olympic Games 2012. Closing ceremony. Oscar on the Olympic Games in 2012. Olympic Torch Relay Olympic Games. London became the first city to have received three Olympics. Oscar Pistorius is a man who never gives up.

«My house» - There is a bed side table near the bed. There is a mirror above the sink. There is a bed near the wall. A curtain hangs on a window. In one of pedestal there is a sink. Near the mirror there is a case for different subjects. A dining room, a living room, kitchen, a nursery and a bedroom. Now we are in a nursery.

Тексты на английском

46 презентаций о текстах на английском
Урок

Английский язык

29 тем
Картинки