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US Wireless Data Market Q1 2011 Update
US Wireless Data Market Q1 2011 Update		 US Wireless Data Market Q1 2011 Update
US Wireless Data Market Q1 2011 Update		 US Wireless Data Service Revenues
US Wireless Data Service Revenues		 US Wireless Carriers: Data ARPU Trends
US Wireless Carriers: Data ARPU Trends		 US Wireless Carriers: Data ARPU Trends
US Wireless Carriers: Data ARPU Trends
US Wireless Carriers: Data ARPU Trends
US Wireless Carriers: Data ARPU Trends		 US Wireless Carriers: ARPU Trends
US Wireless Carriers: ARPU Trends
Connected Device Growth
Connected Device Growth		 US Wireless Carriers: Net Adds Share
US Wireless Carriers: Net Adds Share		 US Market: Carrier Market share (2011)
US Market: Carrier Market share (2011)		 Mobile Network Traffic Growth
Mobile Network Traffic Growth		 Impact of iPhone
Impact of iPhone
Connected Devices providing majority of the unit growth
Connected Devices providing majority of the unit growth		 Mobile devices dominate the computing ecosystem
Mobile devices dominate the computing ecosystem		 Comparing Mobile Markets
Comparing Mobile Markets		 Evolution of the US Mobile Market
Evolution of the US Mobile Market		 Majority of the devices sold in the US now are smartphones
Majority of the devices sold in the US now are smartphones
Horizontal platforms dominate
Horizontal platforms dominate		 Top Carriers by Wireless Data Revenues
Top Carriers by Wireless Data Revenues		 Race to the first billion
Race to the first billion		 Sept 12th 2011
Sept 12th 2011		 Sept 12th 2011
Sept 12th 2011
Sept 12th 2011
Sept 12th 2011		 Sept 12th 2011
Sept 12th 2011		 Sept 12th 2011
Sept 12th 2011		 Sept 12th 2011
Sept 12th 2011		 Sept 12th 2011
Sept 12th 2011
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US Wireless Data Market Q1 2011 Update

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1US Wireless Data Market Q1 2011 4now. Verizon finally got its iPhone and as
Update. expected it didn’t make a big dent into
2US Wireless Market – Q1 2011. The US the AT&T’s financials. Platforms -
wireless data market grew 4% Q/Q and 23% Horizontal vs. Vertical Over the past few
Y/Y to reach $15.4B in mobile data service quarters, we have seen a fascinating
revenues in Q1 2011 and is on course to battle brew between the horizontal
increase Y/Y by 22% to $67B in 2011. Of (Android and Windows) and the vertical
all the segments, the connected device (Apple, RIM, Nokia) device platforms. In
category registered the highest growth at the US, in the smartphone category, the
9.6% Q/Q while the postpaid subscriptions horizontal platforms (primarily Android)
growth was almost flat for the quarter. has been gaining significant share since
Connected devices (including tablets, M2M, Q1 2010 and now have over 65% share of the
telematics, eReaders, etc.) now account new devices sold while the vertical
for 8% of the subscription base. For the platforms’ share has declined to 35%.
first time, the smartphone sales crossed However, the revenues and profits are
the 50% share mark in the US. Also, the US still dominated by the vertical platforms.
now accounts for approximately one-third What to expect in the coming months? All
of all smartphone sales in the world. The this has setup an absolutely fascinating
Big News - AT&T’s proposed acquisition 2011 in the communication/computing
of T-Mobile The big news during Q1 2011 industry. Convergence is everywhere and is
was of course the blockbuster announcement leading to a fundamental reset of the
of the acquisition of T-Mobile USA. We had value chains and ecosystems. We are going
pondered on the viability of 4 operators to be discussing the ins and outs of how
in the US market in the past. All the the industry is going to evolve in the
major mobile market eventually settle with next decade in our Sept 12th mobile
three main players controlling the market. thought leadership summit – Mobile Future
So, the news wasn’t a surprise as we had Forward which is bringing exceptional
expected something to break loose and industry thought-leaders, inventors, and
conform to the natural market evolution. doers to brainstorm, discuss, and debate
T-Mobile US has been under tremendous what’s next. Hope you can join us. As
pressure for the last 2 years being unable usual, we will be keeping a very close eye
to expand its postpaid base despite on the micro- and macro-trends and
modernizing its network/backhaul and reporting on the market on a regular basis
introducing a slew of impressive handsets. in various private and public settings.
It was getting squeezed both from the top 5US Wireless Market – Q1 2011. Service
(Verizon and AT&T) and from the bottom Revenues The US Wireless data service
(MetroPCS, etc.) while duking it out with revenues grew 4% Q/Q and 23% Y/Y to $15.4B
Sprint in the middle. The decision window in Q410. The mobile data services revenues
was closing as Deutsche Telekom had to for the US market are expected to reach
decide if it wanted to invest in LTE or $67B in 2011. Verizon and AT&T had a
not (in the US market). Given that the good mobile data quarter accounting for
parent business has been under pressure as 76% of the increase in data revenues in Q1
well, it decided to take the most 2011. T-Mobile’s HSPA+ drive is starting
attractive available option. The proposed to pay dividends. While the postpaid
merger will obviously have an impact on net-adds were still in the red, its data
the market structure. The market power growth is starting to match with its
will get concentrated in the top 2. The peers. The 27% smartphone base definitely
HHI3 Index will go from .22 to .31 but the helps. For the quarter, AT&T and
HHI3 value will be at par with UK, Canada Verizon accounted for 69% of the market
(though the Canadian market is not a good data services revenues and 65% of the
proxy for a competitive market), and some subscription base. AT&T edged past
of the other markets. The biggest task for China Mobile to become #3 operator by
the US regulators will be to analyze the mobile data revenues. Verizon is already
impact on the consumer interest and at #1 followed by NTT DoCoMo. Sprint and
service pricing on a market-by-market T-Mobile maintained their #6 and #8 rank
basis. Putting things into perspective, in the top 10 mobile data operators list
this move is not unusual for a developed for Q1 2011. The proposed merger of
market. On average, the top 3 operators in AT&T and T-Mobile will make AT&T
the developed markets around the world #1 by a distance and place 20% of the
control 94% of the market. The proposed global mobile data revenues in the hands
merger roughly resembles the merger that of the top two US operators. ARPU The
took place in UK last year when T-Mobile Overall ARPU increased by $0.11. Average
and Orange, the number 3 and 4 player voice ARPU declined by $0.36 while the
(each having approximately 19% of the average data ARPU grew by $0.47 or 3% Q/Q.
share) respectively in the market merged The average industry percentage
to form Everything Everywhere and become contribution of data to overall ARPU was
the number 1 player in the market with 38% 35% in Q111 and is likely to touch 40% by
market share. However, if we look at the year’s end. Verizon and Sprint were
history of competitiveness in the US neck-and-neck in data ARPU followed by
mobile market, the market and revenue AT&T. In terms of % contribution, all
concentration will be at its highest in the top three operators exceeded the 30%
the history of the US wireless industry. mark. T-Mobile ended the quarter with
Such a move is likely to have an impact on approximately 29% of its revenue coming
the ecosystem depending on the regulatory from the data services. We expect data
policies. Last month, we published a first revenues to exceed voice revenues in the
of its kind in-depth study on competition US market before Q2 2013. Subscribers
in mobile markets - “Competition and the Helped by the growth in connected devices,
Evolution of Mobile Markets - A Study of the overall net-adds increased by 4.9M.
Competition in Global Mobile Markets”. The For the sixth straight quarter, AT&T
paper presents the analysis and an reported more net-adds from connected
in-depth analytical framework to study the devices than postpaid subs. Connected
competitive landscape in the global mobile devices are now almost 12% of AT&T’s
markets. subscription base. Overall, AT&T has
3US Wireless Market – Q1 2011. 43% of the connected device share of the
Transparency as a competitive advantage An market. The connected device segment grew
unfortunate side effect of an industry 9.6% Q/Q and 48% Y/Y. Sprint is on good
moving too fast is that regulations are comeback adding over million customers.
often behind the curve (we discuss the Sprint extended its streak of positive
role of regulators in our Competition net-adds to four quarters by adding over a
paper mentioned above). Q2 will see a lot million subs for the second straight time
of heated debates around privacy and since Q1 2006. T-Mobile however continues
competition. Current regulatory framework to be sandwiched between the top three and
in the US seems ineffective to meet the the next three and is having a hard time
demands of the digital age. The indecision adding postpaid subscribers. Applications
and a weak regulatory framework can be and Services While the percentage share of
harmful to the ecosystem. While the the data revenues is declining for
industry has done a poor job of explaining messaging, the revenue growth stays strong
targeting and relevancy and the associated with almost $5B in revenues. The market is
consumer benefits, by over reacting, finally starting to see activity in the
regulators can mess up the potential for mobile commerce and payment services as
better services. It is not the mechanics well as in various industry verticals like
they need to regulate but the healthcare, retail, and education. The
“transparency” of services and policies in fight for the 3% block is finally in the
plain English. Regulating transparency open. Operators, financial institutions,
seems to be a more effective way. The and the internet players are all vying for
ecosystem players will do better if they a piece of the mobile wallet. Much more to
use transparency not as a threat but as a come in 2H 2011.
competitive advantage. The new troika - 6US Wireless Market – Q1 2011. Handsets
AAG A couple of years back, I gave a talk Nokia sold 108.5M units in Q1 2011
about the changing mobile ecosystem and accounting for 28% of the market share.
what it means to compete in an environment Samsung continues to be one of the most
where the ecosystem stacks get reshuffled agile players in the device business
every few months. I wrote about that in an shipping 70M for a 18% share of the
essay that was published in the Mobile market. The nimble team at HTC outclassed
Future Forward book last year. While its bigger peers and edged past Nokia in
innovation is coming from all angles - market cap. In the US, for the first time,
fast and furious - the troika of Apple, 51% of the devices sold were smartphones.
Amazon, and Google is leading the way Global average is at 26%. One-third of all
right now. Their interests are clashing in smartphones sold were sold in the US
multiple dimensions - device, user data, making it the hot bed for consumer
cloud, advertising, local, commerce, devices. Smartphones now account for 80%
books, etc. In a fast changing revenue of all phones sold in the US. In
environment, either you define the market the vertical vs. horizontal platform
or be defined by it. The journey from battle, the ecosystem is shifting towards
being an arch-rival to a frenemy (and horizontal domination in the near-term
vice-versa) can be a short one. A (units sold) while a majority of the
significant shift As we mentioned in our profits reside in the vertical column. 85%
last research note, 2010 marked the of the tablets use WiFi only (some have
milestone of the start of a new computing inactivated cellular chipset) meaning the
and communications era. For the first time operator channel is not a necessary
in the US, the smartphones shipments distribution channel. Operators who start
exceeded the traditional computer segments to bundle multiple devices by single data
(that consists of desktops, notebooks and plans and data buckets are going to see a
netbooks). Smartphones and the connected better yield in this category. Global
devices now account for 51% of the Update Race to a billion - India went past
computing devices revenue in the US 800M in Q1 2011 subs and is closing on
(devices include desktops, notebooks, China and we expect that by the end of the
netbooks, tablets, eReaders, and year, India will become the largest mobile
conventional feature and smartphones) The market on the planet. By early 2012 both
growth in of connected devices The India and China will have more than a
connected devices category is the fastest billion subscriptions. China Mobile
growing segment of the market and while crossed the 600M subscription mark however
the ARPUs are low, due to the higher its 3G introduction has had a tepid
margins this segment will prove to be the response thus and its 4G strategy remains
most profitable in the coming years. By in flux. More details to come in our
the end of 2011, connected devices will be global market update. Your feedback is
commanding double digit market share. always welcome. Thanks. Chetan Sharma We
However, not all sub-segments are going to will be keeping a close eye on the trends
be successful in the operator channel in the wireless data sector in our blog,
until multi-device data pricing plans are twitter feeds, future research reports,
introduced. Apple’s iPad has been, as and articles. The next US Wireless Data
expected, a runaway success. Several other Market update will be released in Aug
tablets launched in 2011 but none has come 2011. The next Global Wireless Data Market
close to being a credible challenge. OEMs update will be issued in Jun 2011.
will do well to segment the market and Disclaimer: Some of the companies
price accordingly rather than follow Apple mentioned in this paper are our clients.
in performance and pricing. Market is 7US Wireless Data Service Revenues.
fairly young and there is tremendous room 8US Wireless Carriers: Data ARPU
for growth. Another trend that is obvious Trends.
is the development of an alternate 9US Wireless Carriers: Data ARPU
ecosystem. 85% of the tablets use Trends.
primarily use WiFi for connectivity 10US Wireless Carriers: Data ARPU
meaning that OEMs need more diverse Trends.
distribution channels. Operators who start 11US Wireless Carriers: ARPU Trends.
to bundle multiple devices by single data 12Connected Device Growth.
plans and data buckets are going to see a 13US Wireless Carriers: Net Adds Share.
better yield in this category. We do 14US Market: Carrier Market share
expect multi-device or family data plans (2011).
to start being introduced in the US market 15Mobile Network Traffic Growth.
in 2011. Also, the $200-250 Android 16Impact of iPhone.
tablets will start to emerge during the 17Connected Devices providing majority
second half of the year to broaden the of the unit growth.
choices for the consumers. 18Mobile devices dominate the computing
4US Wireless Market – Q1 2011. Turmoil ecosystem.
in the OEM land Another headline grabbing 19Comparing Mobile Markets. This is from
event in Q1 2011 was that of Microsoft’s our extensive research study –
partnership with Nokia. Nokia’s lack of a “Competition and the Evolution of Mobile
credible response to Apple and Android has Markets” available at
left the company scrambling for survival. http://www.chetansharma.com/mobilecompetit
Nokia still dominates the unit sales but on.htm.
the domination of Apple and the Android 20Evolution of the US Mobile Market.
OEMs has taken away significant profits This is from our extensive research study
and ecosystem mindshare. Industry is – “Competition and the Evolution of Mobile
awaiting the first release of the Windows Markets” available at
phone from Nokia which will have a lot http://www.chetansharma.com/mobilecompetit
riding on it. If the release of iPhone 5 on.htm.
coincides with this release, the Christmas 21Majority of the devices sold in the US
selling season will be interesting. The now are smartphones.
OEMs that have impressed the most are HTC 22Horizontal platforms dominate.
and Samsung. The collapsed release cycles 23Top Carriers by Wireless Data
and the fierce pace of introduction of new Revenues.
devices have caught many of the 24Race to the first billion.
traditional players unprepared. These 25Sept 12th 2011. Inspiration to What’s
things have a tendency of going in cycles Next. Exceptional People, Extraordinary
so we expect the pendulum to swing again Insights. chetansharma.com
in the next 12-24 months. There is a fight twitter.com/chetansharma
for the #3 spot and it is likely that chetansharma.com/blog facebook:
Windows will fill that void. However, for chetansharma. www.mobilefutureforward.com
developers, iOS and Android are the only Inquiries: info@mobilefutureforward.com.
platforms they need to worry about right
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