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1 | US Wireless Data Market Q1 2011 | 4 | now. Verizon finally got its iPhone and as |
Update. | expected it didn’t make a big dent into | ||
2 | US Wireless Market – Q1 2011. The US | the AT&T’s financials. Platforms - | |
wireless data market grew 4% Q/Q and 23% | Horizontal vs. Vertical Over the past few | ||
Y/Y to reach $15.4B in mobile data service | quarters, we have seen a fascinating | ||
revenues in Q1 2011 and is on course to | battle brew between the horizontal | ||
increase Y/Y by 22% to $67B in 2011. Of | (Android and Windows) and the vertical | ||
all the segments, the connected device | (Apple, RIM, Nokia) device platforms. In | ||
category registered the highest growth at | the US, in the smartphone category, the | ||
9.6% Q/Q while the postpaid subscriptions | horizontal platforms (primarily Android) | ||
growth was almost flat for the quarter. | has been gaining significant share since | ||
Connected devices (including tablets, M2M, | Q1 2010 and now have over 65% share of the | ||
telematics, eReaders, etc.) now account | new devices sold while the vertical | ||
for 8% of the subscription base. For the | platforms’ share has declined to 35%. | ||
first time, the smartphone sales crossed | However, the revenues and profits are | ||
the 50% share mark in the US. Also, the US | still dominated by the vertical platforms. | ||
now accounts for approximately one-third | What to expect in the coming months? All | ||
of all smartphone sales in the world. The | this has setup an absolutely fascinating | ||
Big News - AT&T’s proposed acquisition | 2011 in the communication/computing | ||
of T-Mobile The big news during Q1 2011 | industry. Convergence is everywhere and is | ||
was of course the blockbuster announcement | leading to a fundamental reset of the | ||
of the acquisition of T-Mobile USA. We had | value chains and ecosystems. We are going | ||
pondered on the viability of 4 operators | to be discussing the ins and outs of how | ||
in the US market in the past. All the | the industry is going to evolve in the | ||
major mobile market eventually settle with | next decade in our Sept 12th mobile | ||
three main players controlling the market. | thought leadership summit – Mobile Future | ||
So, the news wasn’t a surprise as we had | Forward which is bringing exceptional | ||
expected something to break loose and | industry thought-leaders, inventors, and | ||
conform to the natural market evolution. | doers to brainstorm, discuss, and debate | ||
T-Mobile US has been under tremendous | what’s next. Hope you can join us. As | ||
pressure for the last 2 years being unable | usual, we will be keeping a very close eye | ||
to expand its postpaid base despite | on the micro- and macro-trends and | ||
modernizing its network/backhaul and | reporting on the market on a regular basis | ||
introducing a slew of impressive handsets. | in various private and public settings. | ||
It was getting squeezed both from the top | 5 | US Wireless Market – Q1 2011. Service | |
(Verizon and AT&T) and from the bottom | Revenues The US Wireless data service | ||
(MetroPCS, etc.) while duking it out with | revenues grew 4% Q/Q and 23% Y/Y to $15.4B | ||
Sprint in the middle. The decision window | in Q410. The mobile data services revenues | ||
was closing as Deutsche Telekom had to | for the US market are expected to reach | ||
decide if it wanted to invest in LTE or | $67B in 2011. Verizon and AT&T had a | ||
not (in the US market). Given that the | good mobile data quarter accounting for | ||
parent business has been under pressure as | 76% of the increase in data revenues in Q1 | ||
well, it decided to take the most | 2011. T-Mobile’s HSPA+ drive is starting | ||
attractive available option. The proposed | to pay dividends. While the postpaid | ||
merger will obviously have an impact on | net-adds were still in the red, its data | ||
the market structure. The market power | growth is starting to match with its | ||
will get concentrated in the top 2. The | peers. The 27% smartphone base definitely | ||
HHI3 Index will go from .22 to .31 but the | helps. For the quarter, AT&T and | ||
HHI3 value will be at par with UK, Canada | Verizon accounted for 69% of the market | ||
(though the Canadian market is not a good | data services revenues and 65% of the | ||
proxy for a competitive market), and some | subscription base. AT&T edged past | ||
of the other markets. The biggest task for | China Mobile to become #3 operator by | ||
the US regulators will be to analyze the | mobile data revenues. Verizon is already | ||
impact on the consumer interest and | at #1 followed by NTT DoCoMo. Sprint and | ||
service pricing on a market-by-market | T-Mobile maintained their #6 and #8 rank | ||
basis. Putting things into perspective, | in the top 10 mobile data operators list | ||
this move is not unusual for a developed | for Q1 2011. The proposed merger of | ||
market. On average, the top 3 operators in | AT&T and T-Mobile will make AT&T | ||
the developed markets around the world | #1 by a distance and place 20% of the | ||
control 94% of the market. The proposed | global mobile data revenues in the hands | ||
merger roughly resembles the merger that | of the top two US operators. ARPU The | ||
took place in UK last year when T-Mobile | Overall ARPU increased by $0.11. Average | ||
and Orange, the number 3 and 4 player | voice ARPU declined by $0.36 while the | ||
(each having approximately 19% of the | average data ARPU grew by $0.47 or 3% Q/Q. | ||
share) respectively in the market merged | The average industry percentage | ||
to form Everything Everywhere and become | contribution of data to overall ARPU was | ||
the number 1 player in the market with 38% | 35% in Q111 and is likely to touch 40% by | ||
market share. However, if we look at the | year’s end. Verizon and Sprint were | ||
history of competitiveness in the US | neck-and-neck in data ARPU followed by | ||
mobile market, the market and revenue | AT&T. In terms of % contribution, all | ||
concentration will be at its highest in | the top three operators exceeded the 30% | ||
the history of the US wireless industry. | mark. T-Mobile ended the quarter with | ||
Such a move is likely to have an impact on | approximately 29% of its revenue coming | ||
the ecosystem depending on the regulatory | from the data services. We expect data | ||
policies. Last month, we published a first | revenues to exceed voice revenues in the | ||
of its kind in-depth study on competition | US market before Q2 2013. Subscribers | ||
in mobile markets - “Competition and the | Helped by the growth in connected devices, | ||
Evolution of Mobile Markets - A Study of | the overall net-adds increased by 4.9M. | ||
Competition in Global Mobile Markets”. The | For the sixth straight quarter, AT&T | ||
paper presents the analysis and an | reported more net-adds from connected | ||
in-depth analytical framework to study the | devices than postpaid subs. Connected | ||
competitive landscape in the global mobile | devices are now almost 12% of AT&T’s | ||
markets. | subscription base. Overall, AT&T has | ||
3 | US Wireless Market – Q1 2011. | 43% of the connected device share of the | |
Transparency as a competitive advantage An | market. The connected device segment grew | ||
unfortunate side effect of an industry | 9.6% Q/Q and 48% Y/Y. Sprint is on good | ||
moving too fast is that regulations are | comeback adding over million customers. | ||
often behind the curve (we discuss the | Sprint extended its streak of positive | ||
role of regulators in our Competition | net-adds to four quarters by adding over a | ||
paper mentioned above). Q2 will see a lot | million subs for the second straight time | ||
of heated debates around privacy and | since Q1 2006. T-Mobile however continues | ||
competition. Current regulatory framework | to be sandwiched between the top three and | ||
in the US seems ineffective to meet the | the next three and is having a hard time | ||
demands of the digital age. The indecision | adding postpaid subscribers. Applications | ||
and a weak regulatory framework can be | and Services While the percentage share of | ||
harmful to the ecosystem. While the | the data revenues is declining for | ||
industry has done a poor job of explaining | messaging, the revenue growth stays strong | ||
targeting and relevancy and the associated | with almost $5B in revenues. The market is | ||
consumer benefits, by over reacting, | finally starting to see activity in the | ||
regulators can mess up the potential for | mobile commerce and payment services as | ||
better services. It is not the mechanics | well as in various industry verticals like | ||
they need to regulate but the | healthcare, retail, and education. The | ||
“transparency” of services and policies in | fight for the 3% block is finally in the | ||
plain English. Regulating transparency | open. Operators, financial institutions, | ||
seems to be a more effective way. The | and the internet players are all vying for | ||
ecosystem players will do better if they | a piece of the mobile wallet. Much more to | ||
use transparency not as a threat but as a | come in 2H 2011. | ||
competitive advantage. The new troika - | 6 | US Wireless Market – Q1 2011. Handsets | |
AAG A couple of years back, I gave a talk | Nokia sold 108.5M units in Q1 2011 | ||
about the changing mobile ecosystem and | accounting for 28% of the market share. | ||
what it means to compete in an environment | Samsung continues to be one of the most | ||
where the ecosystem stacks get reshuffled | agile players in the device business | ||
every few months. I wrote about that in an | shipping 70M for a 18% share of the | ||
essay that was published in the Mobile | market. The nimble team at HTC outclassed | ||
Future Forward book last year. While | its bigger peers and edged past Nokia in | ||
innovation is coming from all angles - | market cap. In the US, for the first time, | ||
fast and furious - the troika of Apple, | 51% of the devices sold were smartphones. | ||
Amazon, and Google is leading the way | Global average is at 26%. One-third of all | ||
right now. Their interests are clashing in | smartphones sold were sold in the US | ||
multiple dimensions - device, user data, | making it the hot bed for consumer | ||
cloud, advertising, local, commerce, | devices. Smartphones now account for 80% | ||
books, etc. In a fast changing | revenue of all phones sold in the US. In | ||
environment, either you define the market | the vertical vs. horizontal platform | ||
or be defined by it. The journey from | battle, the ecosystem is shifting towards | ||
being an arch-rival to a frenemy (and | horizontal domination in the near-term | ||
vice-versa) can be a short one. A | (units sold) while a majority of the | ||
significant shift As we mentioned in our | profits reside in the vertical column. 85% | ||
last research note, 2010 marked the | of the tablets use WiFi only (some have | ||
milestone of the start of a new computing | inactivated cellular chipset) meaning the | ||
and communications era. For the first time | operator channel is not a necessary | ||
in the US, the smartphones shipments | distribution channel. Operators who start | ||
exceeded the traditional computer segments | to bundle multiple devices by single data | ||
(that consists of desktops, notebooks and | plans and data buckets are going to see a | ||
netbooks). Smartphones and the connected | better yield in this category. Global | ||
devices now account for 51% of the | Update Race to a billion - India went past | ||
computing devices revenue in the US | 800M in Q1 2011 subs and is closing on | ||
(devices include desktops, notebooks, | China and we expect that by the end of the | ||
netbooks, tablets, eReaders, and | year, India will become the largest mobile | ||
conventional feature and smartphones) The | market on the planet. By early 2012 both | ||
growth in of connected devices The | India and China will have more than a | ||
connected devices category is the fastest | billion subscriptions. China Mobile | ||
growing segment of the market and while | crossed the 600M subscription mark however | ||
the ARPUs are low, due to the higher | its 3G introduction has had a tepid | ||
margins this segment will prove to be the | response thus and its 4G strategy remains | ||
most profitable in the coming years. By | in flux. More details to come in our | ||
the end of 2011, connected devices will be | global market update. Your feedback is | ||
commanding double digit market share. | always welcome. Thanks. Chetan Sharma We | ||
However, not all sub-segments are going to | will be keeping a close eye on the trends | ||
be successful in the operator channel | in the wireless data sector in our blog, | ||
until multi-device data pricing plans are | twitter feeds, future research reports, | ||
introduced. Apple’s iPad has been, as | and articles. The next US Wireless Data | ||
expected, a runaway success. Several other | Market update will be released in Aug | ||
tablets launched in 2011 but none has come | 2011. The next Global Wireless Data Market | ||
close to being a credible challenge. OEMs | update will be issued in Jun 2011. | ||
will do well to segment the market and | Disclaimer: Some of the companies | ||
price accordingly rather than follow Apple | mentioned in this paper are our clients. | ||
in performance and pricing. Market is | 7 | US Wireless Data Service Revenues. | |
fairly young and there is tremendous room | 8 | US Wireless Carriers: Data ARPU | |
for growth. Another trend that is obvious | Trends. | ||
is the development of an alternate | 9 | US Wireless Carriers: Data ARPU | |
ecosystem. 85% of the tablets use | Trends. | ||
primarily use WiFi for connectivity | 10 | US Wireless Carriers: Data ARPU | |
meaning that OEMs need more diverse | Trends. | ||
distribution channels. Operators who start | 11 | US Wireless Carriers: ARPU Trends. | |
to bundle multiple devices by single data | 12 | Connected Device Growth. | |
plans and data buckets are going to see a | 13 | US Wireless Carriers: Net Adds Share. | |
better yield in this category. We do | 14 | US Market: Carrier Market share | |
expect multi-device or family data plans | (2011). | ||
to start being introduced in the US market | 15 | Mobile Network Traffic Growth. | |
in 2011. Also, the $200-250 Android | 16 | Impact of iPhone. | |
tablets will start to emerge during the | 17 | Connected Devices providing majority | |
second half of the year to broaden the | of the unit growth. | ||
choices for the consumers. | 18 | Mobile devices dominate the computing | |
4 | US Wireless Market – Q1 2011. Turmoil | ecosystem. | |
in the OEM land Another headline grabbing | 19 | Comparing Mobile Markets. This is from | |
event in Q1 2011 was that of Microsoft’s | our extensive research study – | ||
partnership with Nokia. Nokia’s lack of a | “Competition and the Evolution of Mobile | ||
credible response to Apple and Android has | Markets” available at | ||
left the company scrambling for survival. | http://www.chetansharma.com/mobilecompetit | ||
Nokia still dominates the unit sales but | on.htm. | ||
the domination of Apple and the Android | 20 | Evolution of the US Mobile Market. | |
OEMs has taken away significant profits | This is from our extensive research study | ||
and ecosystem mindshare. Industry is | – “Competition and the Evolution of Mobile | ||
awaiting the first release of the Windows | Markets” available at | ||
phone from Nokia which will have a lot | http://www.chetansharma.com/mobilecompetit | ||
riding on it. If the release of iPhone 5 | on.htm. | ||
coincides with this release, the Christmas | 21 | Majority of the devices sold in the US | |
selling season will be interesting. The | now are smartphones. | ||
OEMs that have impressed the most are HTC | 22 | Horizontal platforms dominate. | |
and Samsung. The collapsed release cycles | 23 | Top Carriers by Wireless Data | |
and the fierce pace of introduction of new | Revenues. | ||
devices have caught many of the | 24 | Race to the first billion. | |
traditional players unprepared. These | 25 | Sept 12th 2011. Inspiration to What’s | |
things have a tendency of going in cycles | Next. Exceptional People, Extraordinary | ||
so we expect the pendulum to swing again | Insights. chetansharma.com | ||
in the next 12-24 months. There is a fight | twitter.com/chetansharma | ||
for the #3 spot and it is likely that | chetansharma.com/blog facebook: | ||
Windows will fill that void. However, for | chetansharma. www.mobilefutureforward.com | ||
developers, iOS and Android are the only | Inquiries: info@mobilefutureforward.com. | ||
platforms they need to worry about right | |||
US Wireless Data Market Q1 2011 Update.ppt |
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