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Prospects for commercial real estate development in Kazakhstan –
Prospects for commercial real estate development in Kazakhstan –
Prospects for commercial real estate development in Kazakhstan –
Prospects for commercial real estate development in Kazakhstan –
WHAT’S AHEAD…
WHAT’S AHEAD…
4
4
Kazakhstan is the biggest dynamically developing country in Caspian
Kazakhstan is the biggest dynamically developing country in Caspian
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market passed through emerging
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Prospects for commercial real estate development in Kazakhstan – office and shopping real estate

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1Prospects for commercial real estate 17in 2011. Shopping real estate availability
development in Kazakhstan – office and per 1,000 inhabitants in world cities and
shopping real estate. Dmitry A. Revin, its correlation with GDP per capita.
Director for finance and business Almaty 2011. Shopping real estate
development Eurasia RED, availability per 1,000 city inhabitants,
www.eurasiared.com. Adam Smith conference sq.m. Astana 2011. Almaty 2006. Astana
– Construction and Real Estate in 2006. GDP per capita, thousand USD. 17.
Kazakhstan April 1-3, 2008 Almaty, Paris. London. 650 sq.m. per 1,000 city
Kazakhstan. inhabitants. Warsaw. Madrid. Budapest. 530
2WHAT’S AHEAD…? DEMAND SUPPLY RATES sq.m. per 1,000 city inhabitants. Berlin.
PROFITABILITY. 2. Prague. Bratislava. Moscow. Kiev. Source:
3Executive summary. Kazakhstan is a Kazakhstan commercial real estate center,
rapidly developing market with strong GDP Agency of RK for statistics, EIU, OECD,
growth, significant foreign investments Deloitte estimate.
and stable political environment that 18Analysis of Kazakhstan commercial real
presents exciting profitable opportunities estate market. Overview of Kazakhstan
for commercial real estate development. commercial real estate market Business
Astana - market will be mostly saturated center real estate market Shopping center
for offices and shopping center space by real estate market Almaty Astana. 18.
2009. Unsatisfied demand for modern 19Experts forecast that Almaty retail
shopping center space may arise in as market turnover will increase threefold
early as 2010. Almaty - there is from 2006 to 2012. Retail trade through
unsatisfied demand for offices and modern trade enterprises* grows annually and may
shopping center space. Regions – offices reach 56% by 2012. Retail trade turnover
and shopping real estate development through different sale channels. Retail
projects present marginal opportunity in trade turnover in Almaty, billion USD.
selected regions. 3. Almaty is the largest trade center of
44. Kazakhstan with about 40% of total retail
5Analysis of Kazakhstan commercial real trade turnover of RK in 2006. 20%. 24%.
estate market. Sources for analysis of 19. Kazakhstan The same period 20%. *
Kazakhstan commercial real estate market: Trade enterprises – include all kinds of
JLL Knight Frank CBRE Cushman DTZ Deloitte modern trade formats – neighborhood
EIU OECD Kazakhstan commercial real estate stores, supermarkets, hypermarkets, except
center Agency of RK for statistics for open markets (bazaars) and small
Ministry of economy and budget planning of retail outlets (stalls, stands) of
RK. 5. individual enterprisers. Source: Agency of
6Kazakhstan is the biggest dynamically RK for statistics, EIU.
developing country in Caspian region with 20Economic forecast for 2 scenarios of
attractive investment climate. 1. Almaty shopping space demand – using
Territory – 2,725 thousand sq.m. 2. official and unofficial statistics on city
Population – 15,514 thousand people 3. inhabitants. 1. X. 2. Economic forecast of
Yearly GDP growth – 9-11% a year demand for shopping space in Almaty.
(2000-2007, same growth forecast for the Almaty city inhabitants growth forecast.
next 4 years) 4. Average retail turnover Scenario 1. Shopping space per 1,000
growth – 20% a year (2001-2007, same Almaty inhabitants based on GDP forecast.
growth forecast for the next 4 years) 5. Scenario 2. 32%. 37%. 20. Scenario 1.
Average salary increased 3,6 times during Official statistics on Almaty city
2000-2007. 6. Source: Agency of RK for inhabitants. Scenario 2. Unofficial
statistics. statistics on Almaty city inhabitants.
7Kazakhstan commercial real estate Demand for new shopping space. Thousand
market passed through emerging market sq.m. Thousand city inhabitants. Thousand
stage and is currently still in the stage sq.m. Demand for new shopping space. Sq.m.
of dynamic growth. Stage I. Emerging / 1000 Almaty city inhabitants. Source:
stage. Stage II. Growth stage. Stage III. Agency of RK for statistics, Deloitte
Maturity stage. Examples. Mainly estimate. 1142. 2010. 1914. 1823. 859.
construction of А+ and А class business 1736. 1653. 1575. 642. 1500. 479. 358.
centers MFC * with offices of premium 268. 200. 1375. 1360. 1345. 1316. 1330.
class. Office real estate is comprised of 1287. 1301. 1770. 890. 1247. 650. 865.
facilities in old administrative buildings 477. 600. 360. 416. 288. 272. 200. 206.
of Soviet period (i.e. Scientific Research 160.
Centers) Modern business centers are not 21Almaty economic forecast shows that
constructed, just reconstruction of Soviet future demand for shopping space in
period buildings. Construction of new 2008-2009 may exceed supply by 1.5 times.
business centers of А, В+ and B class Comments. Economic forecast for new demand
share of old buildings in office real and planned supply of shopping real estate
estate is significant. Business centers. in Almaty, thousand sq.m. In the next 4
Construction of shopping centers, in years Almaty developers plan to construct
particular due to network retailer about 300 thousand sq.m. of shopping space
presence Share of Soviet period commercial (based on the projects announced by
buildings is still high. Segmentation of developers). Taking into account current
shopping space by types (trade center, plans of developers up to 2010, potential
shopping mall, neighborhood store, etc.) deficit of shopping space in Almaty will
Construction of malls with GLA> 20,000 potentially reach about 220 thousand sq.m.
sq.m. outside of the city Insignificant It should be noted that in 2007 IKEA
share of markets/bazars in trade turnover. announced its plans for development of 2
Shopping real estate is comprised of old MEGA centers in Kazakhstan – one in Almaty
stores and soviet supermarkets, and another one in Astana with area of
markets/bazars, stand alone shops, booths. 260-380 thousand sq.m. 21. Economic
Shopping centers. 7. Kazakhstan regions. forecast for new demand for Scenario 2.
Moscow. Regions of RF. Almaty, Astana. Economic forecast for new demand for
«АFC» almaty, 2008. «Astana Tower» Astana, Scenario 1. Deficit ~1.5 times. Taking
2005. BC at Gagarina str, Almaty 2006. into account construction of 140 sq.m.
«Kendala» Almaty, 2005. Time. * MFC – MEGA center (IKEA). Developer plans for
multifunctional complex (offices, shopping construction of shopping centers. Source:
center, hotels, etc). Company data, Deloitte estimate.
8Analysis of Kazakhstan commercial real 22Analysis of Kazakhstan commercial real
estate market. Overview of Kazakhstan estate market. Overview of Kazakhstan
commercial real estate market Business commercial real estate market Business
center real estate market Shopping center center real estate market Shopping center
real estate market. 8. real estate market Almaty Astana. 22.
9With dynamic growth of GDP per capita, 23According to expert estimates annual
office real estate area in Almaty and growth of Astana retail market turnover
Astana should significantly expand as will comprise 25% in the next 6 years.
well. Office real estate availability per Retail turnovers will be more and more
1,000 inhabitants in world cities and its through trade enterprises and share of
correlation with GDP per capita. Office open markets (bazaars) may decrease up to
real estate availability per 1,000 city 10-15% in 2012. Retail turnover through
inhabitants, sq.m. GDP per capita at various sale channels. Retail turnover in
purchasing parity index, USD. 9. Paris. Astana, billion USD. Comments: Retail
Toronto. Sidney. Almaty (2012). Madrid. turnover growth in Astana is the highest
Prague. Astana (2012). Warsaw. Bratislava. in RK. Total retail turnover in Almaty and
Budapest. Moscow. Sofia. Almaty(2006). Astana comprise about 50% of total retail
Astana (2006). Istanbul. Source: OECD, JLL turnover of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
(Cities’ reports), Swiss Realty Group, Kazakhstan for the same period - 20%. 25%.
Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, CBRE, 31%. 23. Source: Agency of RK for
Knight Frank. statistics, Ministry of Economy and Budget
10Analysis of Kazakhstan commercial real Planning of RK, EIU.
estate market. Overview of Kazakhstan 24Demand for new shopping space in
commercial real estate market Business Astana may be higher than in Almaty due to
center real estate market Almaty Astana higher population growth in Astana. 1. X.
Shopping center real estate market. 10. 2. Economic forecast of demand for
11Based on Almaty city population shopping space in Astana. Astana city
forecast and existing office real estate, population forecast. Scenario 1. Shopping
it is expected that 1,5 mln. sq.m. of space per 1,000 Astana inhabitants based
office space should be constructed to on GDP forecast. Scenario 2. 39%. 50%. 24.
satisfy new demand by 2012. X. Comments. Scenario 1. Official data on Astana city
New demand growth forecast for office real inhabitants. Scenario 2. Unofficial data
estate in Almaty. Almaty city population on Astana city inhabitants. Thousand sq.m.
forecast. Office space per 1,000 Almaty Thousand inhabitants. Demand for new
inhabitants based on GDP forecast. Based shopping space. Thousand sq.m. Demand for
on forecasted population of Almaty city, new shopping space. Sq.m. / 1,000
it’s expected that there will be on inhabitants. Sources: Agency of RK for
average 2 sq.m. per citizen by 2012. 11. statistics, Kazakhstan commercial real
Thousand sq.m. Thousand city inhabitants. estate center, Deloitte estimate. 575.
Sq.m. / 1,000 city inhabitants. Source: 1239. 1127. 414. 1025. 932. 847. 770. 298.
Agency of RK for statistics, Kazakhstan 700. 215. 766. 730. 696. 155. 663. 632.
commercial real estate center, Deloitte 602. 574. 111. 894. 721. 597. 530. 427.
estimate. 1375. 1360. 1345. 1330. 1316. 400. 323. 267. 244. 179. 184. 120. 130.
1301. 1287. 2090. 1393. 928. 618. 412. 25Economic forecast for shopping space
275. 183. demand and supply shows their balance in
12Economic forecast for office space 2008. However, shopping space deficit may
demand shows that Almaty market is still be expected as early as 2009. Coments.
far from saturation point. Comments. Economic forecast for new shopping space
Economic forecast of new demand and demand and supply planned by developers in
planned supply of office real estate in Astana, thousand sq.m. Total shopping
Almaty, thousand sq.m. Declared volume of space planned for completion by developers
office space supply by market players lags in Astana during 2007-2009 is around
behind economic forecast for new demand. 150-170 thousand sq.m. Few large shopping
In 2010 deficit could reach 300 - 500 complexes were launched in 2007-2008.
thousand sq.m. Taking into account Total shopping space completed in Astana
completion of first phase of AFC in 2007, may exceed economic forecast for demand in
insignificant market oversupply is 2008. Given growing competition among
expected that may stabilize prices in shopping complexes, in 2008 rent may get
2008. Nevertheless, soon additional demand stabilized and grow insignificantly (close
will create deficit and rent prices will to inflation level and difference of KZT
further increase, unless market players to USD rate). Nevertheless, given
will manage to supply additional office potential demand for shopping space as
space. 12. Economic forecast for new Astana inhibitant income grows in
demand. Potential new supply taking into 2009-2011 and absence of major plans by
account AFC. Planned supply of office developers for construction of major
space taking into account declared plans shopping complexes (except for potentially
on AFC. 1 According to the plans declared Mega by IKEA), we expect that in 2010
by the market players and business center there might be deficit of quality shopping
projects under development as of the end space and rent may grow significantly.
of 2007. Source: Deloitte forecast. Economic forecast for new demand under
13Analysis of Kazakhstan commercial real Scenario 2. Supply planned by developers.
estate market. Overview of Kazakhstan Economic forecast for new demand under
commercial real estate market Business Scenario 1. 25. Supply and demand
center real estate market Almaty Astana stabilization period. Shopping space
Shopping center real estate market. 13. deficit growth period. Source: Deloitte
14According to economic forecast, new estimate.
demand for quality office real estate in 26Is Kazakhstan commercial real estate
Astana will increase eightfold from 2007 market competitve in terms of investment
till 20012. X. Comments. According to the yield with other major CIS markets?
forecast, Astana office real estate could Investment yield. Investment yield. Change
reach 1,2 million sq.m. by 2012. In the YoY, bpts. Change YoY, bpts. 2006. 2007.
near future demand for Astana office space Russia. Russia. Russia. Russia. Office.
is unlikely to grow fast because Astana is 9.5%. 8.5%. -100. Retail. 11.0%. 9.25%.
still an administrative and political -175. Warehouse. 11.0%. 9.75%. -125.
center rather than business center of Ukraine. Ukraine. Ukraine. Ukraine.
Kazakhstan. Astana city population Office. 11.0%. 9.5%. -150. Retail. 13.0%.
forecast. New demand growth forecast for 11.0%. -200. Warehouse. 14.0%. 12.0%.
office real estate in Astana. Office space -200. 26. Source: Cushman & Wakefield
per 1,000 Astana inhabitants based on GDP Stiles & Riabokobylko, JLL, DTZ,
forecast. 14. Thousand city inhabitants. Colliers, Renaissance Capital estimates.
Thousand sq.m. Sq.m. / 1000 inhabitants. 27What about profitability? By 2012
Sources: Agency of RK for statistics, profitability of office real estate in
Kazakhstan commercial real estate center, Almaty and Astana may decrease to current
Deloitte estimate. 766. 730. 696. 663. profitability in Moscow. Investment yield
632. 602. 574. 1600. 1109. 755. 532. 369. for office real estate investments.
255. 177. Comments. Almaty. Moscow. Аstana. Eastern
15According to economic forecast, Astana Europe. Western Europe. Current office
office supply will considerably exceed real estate profitability in Astana is
demand in the next 2 years. In the next 3 close to profitability level in Moscow 5
years massive completion of development years ago. Office real estate
projects and supply of office real estate profitability in Moscow in its turn is 3
is expected in Astana market. Taking into years behind profitability in Eastern
account business center projects under Europe, which has profitability very
development and declared plans, more than similar to profitability of Western Europe
600 thousand sq.m. of office space might “mature” market. Analysis of worldwide
be constructed till 2009. Comments. profitability dynamics shows that for
Economic forecast of new demand and growing stage markets profitability is
planned supply of office real estate in decreasing at approximately 2% a year, due
Astana, thousand sq.m. 15. Planned supply to increase in new office space
of new BC? space. Economic forecast for construction and decrease in the level of
new demand. 1 Based on market player plans risk for investors. Having reached the
and BC projects under development as of level of 7% a year, profitability decrease
the end of 2007. Source: Deloitte slows down to 0.5-1% a year and reaches
forecast. 4,5-5% a year (current profitability in
16Analysis of Kazakhstan commercial real Western European countries). We forecast
estate market. Overview of Kazakhstan decrease of office real estate investment
commercial real estate market Business profitability in Kazakhstan by 2% a year
center real estate market Shopping center till 2010, with slow down to 1.5% a year
real estate market. 16. after that. 27. 5 years. 3 years. Minimal
17Analysis of major foreign city office real estate profitability ~ 4,5-5%.
development shows that there is a strong Source: JLL, CBRE, MC «Accord Asset
correlation between city GDP and shopping Management», Deloitte estimate.
space availability. Taking into account 28BRIGHT FUTURE FOR SELECTED MARKETS
GDP forecast, shopping space availability WITH CLEAR PROFESSIONAL PROJECTS! DEMAND
may reach 650 sq.m. in Almaty and 530 SUPPLY RATES PROFITABILITY. 28.
sq.m. in Astana per 1,000 city inhabitants
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