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A summary explanation of London’s labour market in the recent
A summary explanation of London’s labour market in the recent
What the summary covers:
What the summary covers:
Note:
Note:
UK Background
UK Background
UK GDP fell faster, and further, in the 2008 recession than in the
UK GDP fell faster, and further, in the 2008 recession than in the
But the claimant count rate has not risen as much in the 2008
But the claimant count rate has not risen as much in the 2008
Employee jobs have also not fallen by as much in the 2008 recession as
Employee jobs have also not fallen by as much in the 2008 recession as
London Background
London Background
Like the UK, London’s GVA also fell faster in the 2008 recession than
Like the UK, London’s GVA also fell faster in the 2008 recession than
And like the UK, the claimant count has not risen as much in the 2008
And like the UK, the claimant count has not risen as much in the 2008
Employee jobs have also not fallen by as much in the 2008 recession as
Employee jobs have also not fallen by as much in the 2008 recession as
Background summary:
Background summary:
Why?
Why?
Summary of analysis of possible explanations:
Summary of analysis of possible explanations:
Reduction in relative wages
Reduction in relative wages
Compared to the 1980s and 1990s recessions it does not seem that wages
Compared to the 1980s and 1990s recessions it does not seem that wages
However………
However………
Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures
Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures
Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures
Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures
Actual business failures
Actual business failures
Exclude jobs in public administration, defence, education, health and
Exclude jobs in public administration, defence, education, health and
Looking forward, the OBR estimates that public sector employment will
Looking forward, the OBR estimates that public sector employment will
Looking forward summary
Looking forward summary
Factors that may slow any improvement in the labour market as the
Factors that may slow any improvement in the labour market as the
END
END
ANY QUESTIONS
ANY QUESTIONS

Презентация: «A summary explanation of Londons labour market in the recent recession». Автор: mwickham. Файл: «A summary explanation of Londons labour market in the recent recession.ppt». Размер zip-архива: 975 КБ.

A summary explanation of Londons labour market in the recent recession

содержание презентации «A summary explanation of Londons labour market in the recent recession.ppt»
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1 A summary explanation of London’s labour market in the recent

A summary explanation of London’s labour market in the recent

recession

Analysis by Melisa Wickham Presented by Jonathan Hoffman

2 What the summary covers:

What the summary covers:

Looking forward: How might the factors that have supported the labour market thus far change going forward? How might this make the recovery from the recent recession different from the recovery in the 1990s and 1980s recessions?

Background: How does the economy in the recent recession, in the UK and London, compare to that in the 1990s and 1980s recessions? How has GDP/GVA moved? How has unemployment and employment moved?

Possible explanations: Why has the labour market in the UK and London been more resilient during the recent recession so far?

3 Note:

Note:

It is not presumed that the full impact of the 2008 recession on the labour market has necessarily been experienced yet. For a more detailed examination and explanations see the main report: ‘Working Paper 44: London’s labour market in the recent recession’, GLA Economics: http://www.london.gov.uk/publication/working-paper-44-londons-labour-market-recent-recession

4 UK Background

UK Background

BACKGROUND

5 UK GDP fell faster, and further, in the 2008 recession than in the

UK GDP fell faster, and further, in the 2008 recession than in the

1990s and 1980s recessions:

This is equal to a steady rate of decline of 2.0% a year

This is equal to a steady rate of decline of 3.7% a year

And in the 1990s it fell by 2.5% over 5 quarters

In the 1980s GDP fell by 4.7% over 5 quarters

This is equal to a steady rate of decline of 4.3% a year

In 2008, GDP fell by 6.4% over 6 quarters

Source: ONS, GDP chained volume measure, constant 2006 prices, SA

6 But the claimant count rate has not risen as much in the 2008

But the claimant count rate has not risen as much in the 2008

recession as it did in the 1990s and 1980s recessions:

The claimant count rate has increased so far by only 2.1 percentage points

And had increased by 5.4 percentage points in 1980s recession

But by the same time had increased by 4.7 percentage points in 1990s recession

Note: Claimant count denominator = claimant count + WFJ Source: ONS

7 Employee jobs have also not fallen by as much in the 2008 recession as

Employee jobs have also not fallen by as much in the 2008 recession as

they did in the 1990s recession:

Employee job numbers have fallen by 4.3% so far during this recession

But by the same time fell by 6.1% in the 1990s recession

Source: WFJ, ONS

8 London Background

London Background

9 Like the UK, London’s GVA also fell faster in the 2008 recession than

Like the UK, London’s GVA also fell faster in the 2008 recession than

in the 1990s recession:

This is equal to a steady rate of decline of 2.8% a year

This is equal to a steady rate of decline of 4.1% a year

London’s output fell by 6.2% over 9 quarters in the 1990s recession

And has fallen by 6.1% over 6 quarters in the recent recession

Source: GVA at basic prices, constant 2005 prices, Experian

10 And like the UK, the claimant count has not risen as much in the 2008

And like the UK, the claimant count has not risen as much in the 2008

recession as it did in the 1990s and 1980s recessions:

But by the same time in the 1990s it had risen by 6.5 percentage points

And by 4.1 percentage points in the 1980s recession

The claimant count rate in London has risen by 1.7 percentage points so far in this recession

Note: Claimant count denominator = claimant count + WFJ Source: ONS

11 Employee jobs have also not fallen by as much in the 2008 recession as

Employee jobs have also not fallen by as much in the 2008 recession as

they did in the 1990s recession:

But by the same time fell by 11.1% in the 1990s recession

Has fallen by 3.5% so far in this recession

Source: WFJ, Nomis

12 Background summary:

Background summary:

London

UK

Peak-to-trough output decline (%)1

Peak-to-trough output decline (%)1

Peak-to-trough output decline (%)1

2008

6.1

6.4

1990s

6.2

2.5

1980s

-

4.6

Constant annual growth rate (over peak-to-trough period) (%) 1

Constant annual growth rate (over peak-to-trough period) (%) 1

Constant annual growth rate (over peak-to-trough period) (%) 1

2008

-4.1

-4.3

1990s

-2.8

-2.0

1980s

-

-3.7

Percentage point change in claimant count rate2

Percentage point change in claimant count rate2

Percentage point change in claimant count rate2

2008

1.7

2.1

1990s

6.5

4.7

1980s

4.1

5.4

Change in employee jobs numbers (%)3

Change in employee jobs numbers (%)3

Change in employee jobs numbers (%)3

2008

-3.5

-4.3

1990s

-11.1

-6.1

1980s

-

-

1 London figures are derived from Experian’s regional GVA estimates. UK figures are derived from ONS GDP estimates. 2 From UK output peak to eleven quarters after. 3 For UK output peak to ten quarters after.

13 Why?

Why?

Why?

14 Summary of analysis of possible explanations:

Summary of analysis of possible explanations:

Possible explanations

Possible explanations

Possible explanations

Possible explanations

Possible explanations

Likely contribution to labour market strength during the 2008 recession so far

Likely contribution to labour market strength during the 2008 recession so far

Likely contribution to labour market strength during the 2008 recession so far

Likely contribution to labour market strength during the 2008 recession so far

Likely contribution to labour market strength during the 2008 recession so far

1. Reduction in relative wages

1. Reduction in relative wages

1. Reduction in relative wages

1. Reduction in relative wages

1. Reduction in relative wages

High

High

High

High

High

2. Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures

2. Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures

2. Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures

2. Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures

2. Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures

High

High

High

High

High

3. Growth in the public sector

3. Growth in the public sector

3. Growth in the public sector

3. Growth in the public sector

3. Growth in the public sector

High

High

High

High

High

4. Labour market structural change

4. Labour market structural change

4. Labour market structural change

4. Labour market structural change

4. Labour market structural change

Medium

Medium

Medium

Medium

Medium

5. Reduction in working hours

5. Reduction in working hours

5. Reduction in working hours

5. Reduction in working hours

5. Reduction in working hours

Medium

Medium

Medium

Medium

Medium

6. Less economic structural change

6. Less economic structural change

6. Less economic structural change

6. Less economic structural change

6. Less economic structural change

Medium

Medium

Medium

Medium

Medium

7. Measurement error

7. Measurement error

7. Measurement error

7. Measurement error

7. Measurement error

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

15 Reduction in relative wages

Reduction in relative wages

Have workers accepted larger pay cuts/smaller pay rises to reduce their risks of unemployment?

16 Compared to the 1980s and 1990s recessions it does not seem that wages

Compared to the 1980s and 1990s recessions it does not seem that wages

in the UK have fallen sufficiently to compensate for lower firm output.

Reduction in relative wages

Source: ONS (ROYJ, MGRN, MGRZ, ABML), GLA Economics calculation

17 However………

However………

Looking forward, slow employment growth during the recovery should minimise pressure on wage rises in the UK. However, Sterling is unlikely to fall much further, so further falls in the relative unit labour costs in the UK seem unlikely.

Reduction in relative wages

Source: IMF

18 Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures

Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures

19 Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures

Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures

1990s peak

2008 peak

Source: PSNFC net rate of return (%, SA), ONS

20 Actual business failures

Actual business failures

Compared to the rise in the 1980s and 1990s recessions and given the fall in GDP, the rise in company liquidations has been modest during the 2008 recession.

Looking forward: Government support is gradually being withdrawn and this could make future liquidations a risk, however Forecast low real interest rates in the near term should continue to support business survival.

Contributing factors: Bank of England’s monetary policy, and Government policy

1990s

2008

1980s

Strong corporate profitability and low rate of business failures

Note: Historic business failures are based on data for compulsory liquidations, creditors’ voluntary liquidations, administrative receiverships, administrative orders and company voluntary arrangements from The Insolvency Service

21 Exclude jobs in public administration, defence, education, health and

Exclude jobs in public administration, defence, education, health and

social work from the total number of jobs in the economy……..

Growth in public sector

Source: Workforce Jobs, ONS

22 Looking forward, the OBR estimates that public sector employment will

Looking forward, the OBR estimates that public sector employment will

fall by around 400,000 by 2015/16. This means that public sector employment will contract at a similar compound rate over the next 5 years as the private sector experienced between 2008 and 2010.

However, a lot of this increase is due to the incorporation of financial institutions (e.g. Lloyds) into the public sector

There has been a large rise since the recession

Looking specifically at public sector employment in the 2008 recession:

Growth in public sector

Around 25% of the public sector employment increase between 2008 and 2010 was in London. Around 40% of this is due to the reclassification of financial institutions into the public sector

Note: ‘Other public sector’ includes financial corporations. In the timeframe above, RBoS and Lloyds were included in the 3rd quarter from UK output peak (2008 Q4). Northern Rock was included prior to the GDP peak. Source: ONS

23 Looking forward summary

Looking forward summary

Factors that are likely to support the labour market further as the economy grows:

Reduced relative wages Strong corporate profitability and low business failures Lower economic structural change

24 Factors that may slow any improvement in the labour market as the

Factors that may slow any improvement in the labour market as the

economy grows:

Reduced working hours Labour market structural change Reductions in public sector employment

25 END

END

For a more detailed examination and explanations see the main report: ‘Working Paper 44: London’s labour market in the recent recession’ by GLA Economics: http://www.london.gov.uk/publication/working-paper-44-londons-labour-market-recent-recession

26 ANY QUESTIONS

ANY QUESTIONS

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