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Human Population Growth and the Environment
Human Population Growth and the Environment
Humans are Recent Arrivals
Humans are Recent Arrivals
A Closer Look (1)
A Closer Look (1)
Three Technological Eras (2)
Three Technological Eras (2)
What’s Behind Population Growth
What’s Behind Population Growth
Fertility Trends
Fertility Trends
Population Predictions (4)
Population Predictions (4)
Population May Overshoot
Population May Overshoot
Resource Consumption (6)
Resource Consumption (6)
Resource Limits - Land (7)
Resource Limits - Land (7)
Resource Limits - Water (8)
Resource Limits - Water (8)
Energy Consumption (9)
Energy Consumption (9)
Fossil Fuel Reserves (9)
Fossil Fuel Reserves (9)
Technology Evolves (10)
Technology Evolves (10)
Economics and Resources (11)
Economics and Resources (11)
Planet Earth is Impacted (12)
Planet Earth is Impacted (12)
Our ‘Commons’ are in Danger
Our ‘Commons’ are in Danger
Biodiversity is in Danger (13)
Biodiversity is in Danger (13)
Global Warming - A Good Example
Global Warming - A Good Example
Predicting the Future - Be Careful
Predicting the Future - Be Careful
Technology’s Roles
Technology’s Roles
Engineers are vital
Engineers are vital
Summary
Summary
References
References
References, continued
References, continued

Презентация: «Human Population Growth and the Environment». Автор: J Miller. Файл: «Human Population Growth and the Environment.ppt». Размер zip-архива: 1298 КБ.

Human Population Growth and the Environment

содержание презентации «Human Population Growth and the Environment.ppt»
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1 Human Population Growth and the Environment

Human Population Growth and the Environment

Human Population - An Explosive Growth Human Needs - Limited Resources Our Natural Environment Under Attack Roles of Technology and Engineering An Uncertain Future

2 Humans are Recent Arrivals

Humans are Recent Arrivals

Earth - 5 Billion Years Multi-cell Biota - 600 Million Years Human Beings ~ 2 Million Years Human Population Growth into Billions - Last 200 years

6 Billion

6 Billion

A Million Years Of Human Growth (1)

3 A Closer Look (1)

A Closer Look (1)

12,000 years 200 Million by 1 A.D.

2,000 Years 1 Billion in 1800 A.D.

The Industrial Revolution

1 Billion

200 million

4 Three Technological Eras (2)

Three Technological Eras (2)

5 What’s Behind Population Growth

What’s Behind Population Growth

Industrial Revolution Growth of Cities and Infrastructure Water Energy Transportation Increased Productivity Nutrition Sanitation Medicine

Three Factors Fertility Infant Mortality Longevity Animal Domestication and Agriculture Provided for a few to feed many

6 Fertility Trends

Fertility Trends

Population predictions are very sensitive to future fertility assumptions At 1990 fertility rates (constant by region) population would grow to 110 billion in 2100, over 700 billion in 2150 (3) Has been dropping since 1800 in developed nations - now at Zero Growth (4) Is on its way down in much of the developing world (4)

7 Population Predictions (4)

Population Predictions (4)

Most predictions: 9-12B by 2050 10-15B by 2100 UN (Low) requires global fertility at less than zero growth in 15 years Large uncertainties

8 Population May Overshoot

Population May Overshoot

When Population Outpaces Resources

Scenario - current population trend, doubled resources (5)

9 Resource Consumption (6)

Resource Consumption (6)

High consumption Getting worse Rate increase faster than population growth

10 Resource Limits - Land (7)

Resource Limits - Land (7)

Deforesting to acquire more arable land Would run out in next century at current yields Probably need to double yields

11 Resource Limits - Water (8)

Resource Limits - Water (8)

In 1950 people used half of accessible water Are now dependent on dams Pollution loses 33% of potential water Getting close to limits

12 Energy Consumption (9)

Energy Consumption (9)

Energy growth very high last fifty years Mostly hydrocarbon fuels Nonrenewable resource consumption and climate change issues

13 Fossil Fuel Reserves (9)

Fossil Fuel Reserves (9)

Lots of coal - but heavy CO2 contributor Look for alternative forms of energy to emerge

14 Technology Evolves (10)

Technology Evolves (10)

Cars replaced horses as transportation needs grew

Energy forms have changed to meet changing needs New economic and environmental needs are emerging

15 Economics and Resources (11)

Economics and Resources (11)

1.1 billion people suffer from malnutrition

Impact = P*A*T Population Affluence Technology US - 5% of global population but 20-25% of environmental impact

% of global income

84.7

1.4

Poorest 20%

Richest 20%

16 Planet Earth is Impacted (12)

Planet Earth is Impacted (12)

Ecological Footprints United States - 5 hectares/person Developing nations - 0.5 hectare/person For everyone to live at today’s US footprint would require 3 planet Earths Increasing affluence and population is damaging Earth’s essential ecology

17 Our ‘Commons’ are in Danger

Our ‘Commons’ are in Danger

Atmospheric pollution and climate change Water pollution, including ground aquifers Deforestation and loss of oxygenation The oceans, coral reefs and their bounty National parks, wildernesses and wetlands Nonrenewable natural resource depletion Fossil fuels, mineral ores, topsoil…..

18 Biodiversity is in Danger (13)

Biodiversity is in Danger (13)

Humanity has spawned a species extinction to rival the 5 great extinctions of 65 - 440 million years ago Recovery times from the great extinctions took 10’s of millions of years Biodiversity is essential to life on Earth and holds untold treasures for the future An ecological ethic is emerging

19 Global Warming - A Good Example

Global Warming - A Good Example

Atmospheric CO2 is increasing, and creates greenhouse effect.(14) 3-5°C rise predicted by computer models for this century would have major environmental impact. (15) Observed change of 0.25-0.4°surface and 0.0-0.2°C troposphere rise in last 20 years doesn’t agree with models and may or may not be due to CO2.(16) Humans - 6 billion tons/year of CO2 (up 500% from 1950, and increasing) (17) Other sources 200B tons/year Total atmosphere load - 775B tons Total earth load with oceans - 42,000B tons

0.6°C rise in last 100 years

20 Predicting the Future - Be Careful

Predicting the Future - Be Careful

Don’t assume it cant be done Leave room for the unknown Consider alternatives carefully Pursue all potential solutions

21 Technology’s Roles

Technology’s Roles

Detailed explicit information and understanding of what is occurring Sensors, data processing, computers, models, predictions, communication, information…... Alternate technologies that mitigate and eliminate deleterious effects Energy, water, transportation, communication… Sustainable Development

22 Engineers are vital

Engineers are vital

Developing and applying the means by which to measure, analyze and predict future conditions the technologies by which to mitigate and eliminate undesired effects Describing, explaining and communicating To policy makers To the non-technical public Creating the framework for a sustainable environment

23 Summary

Summary

Major increases are occurring in human population and affluence. Major stresses result in our society, natural environment, and ecology. Technology and engineering are central to the creation and the mitigation of problems. Predicting the future is difficult (17). The next twenty five to fifty years will be decisive.

24 References

References

1. Cohen, Joel, How Many People Can The Earth Support?, W. W. Norton & Co., New York, 1995, p79-82. 2. Kates, Robert, Population, technology, and the human environment: A thread through time, Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, J Ausubel and H.D.Langford, Eds., National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1997, page 38 (concept credited to Deevey, E., The human population, Scientific American, 203, no.9 (September) 1960, pages 194-204.) 3. Cohen, op. cit., p139. 4. Kates, op cit., p50-51. 5. Meadows, Donella H.. et al, Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green Publishing Co., White River Junction, Vermont, 1992, p128-140. 6. Meadows, op. cit., p7.

25 References, continued

References, continued

7. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p51. 8. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p55. 9. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p67-8. 10. Ausubel, J, and H.D.Langford, Eds., Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1997, p21 and 86 11. Cohen, op. cit., p52. 12. Wilson, Edward O., Foreword to 1999 edition, The Diversity of Life, W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 1992. 13. Wilson, E.O.,The Diversity of Life, W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 1992. 14..Meadows, op. cit, p92-96. 15. National Research Council, Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change, National Academy Press, Washington D.C., 2000 16. Dunn, Seth, Decarbonizing the energy economy in Brown, Lester et al, State of the World,W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 2001, page 85 17. Cerf, Christopher, and Victor Navansky, The Experts Speak, Pantheon Books, New York, 1984, revised 2000.

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