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Mortality transition in Mexico, 1500-2000
Mortality transition in Mexico, 1500-2000
Mexico: life expectancy at birth over five centuries
Mexico: life expectancy at birth over five centuries
Five centuries of population change in Mexico (millions log scale)
Five centuries of population change in Mexico (millions log scale)
6 Factors to explain the health transition and rising life expectancy
6 Factors to explain the health transition and rising life expectancy
The epidemiological transition, 3 stages (Omran)
The epidemiological transition, 3 stages (Omran)
Mexico: the last devasting epidemic occurred in 1918 (~250,000 deaths)
Mexico: the last devasting epidemic occurred in 1918 (~250,000 deaths)
The Age of Pestilence and Famine: Colonial Mexico, 1640-1813
The Age of Pestilence and Famine: Colonial Mexico, 1640-1813
Example from Northern Mexico, 1630-1930
Example from Northern Mexico, 1630-1930
Mexico, 4 regions, 1680-1815
Mexico, 4 regions, 1680-1815
Charity campaign not begun until week nine of epidemic (1797)
Charity campaign not begun until week nine of epidemic (1797)
Intensity of mortality crises declined after mid-19th century
Intensity of mortality crises declined after mid-19th century
The revolution in life expectancy in 20th century Mexico
The revolution in life expectancy in 20th century Mexico
The Mortality transition in Mexico: catching up with the USA
The Mortality transition in Mexico: catching up with the USA
Omrans epidemiological transition Mexico, cause of death: decline of
Omrans epidemiological transition Mexico, cause of death: decline of
1943-60 gains in life expectancy (8
1943-60 gains in life expectancy (8
Timing of principal gains by age varied greatly from one decade to
Timing of principal gains by age varied greatly from one decade to
6 factors for explaining the health transition and rising life
6 factors for explaining the health transition and rising life
Public health insurance has risen steady since 1950 & now covers 60%+
Public health insurance has risen steady since 1950 & now covers 60%+
Literacy (aged 10+) doubled 1900-30 and 1930-80
Literacy (aged 10+) doubled 1900-30 and 1930-80
Mexico won the race between population and grain supply, 1925-1985
Mexico won the race between population and grain supply, 1925-1985
Mexican agriculture won the race against population--1940-65
Mexican agriculture won the race against population--1940-65
Food availability increase per capita by type: Mexico 1940-1960,
Food availability increase per capita by type: Mexico 1940-1960,
Social modernization in Mexico, 1970-2000
Social modernization in Mexico, 1970-2000
Mexican middle class emerged slowlysince 1950
Mexican middle class emerged slowlysince 1950
Infant mortality declined from 13% in 1950 to 2.5% in 2005 (still more
Infant mortality declined from 13% in 1950 to 2.5% in 2005 (still more
6 significant infant mortality risks in Mexico, 1987-1991: base =
6 significant infant mortality risks in Mexico, 1987-1991: base =
6 factors for explaining the health transition and rising life
6 factors for explaining the health transition and rising life
Mortality transitions: Examples from Latin America
Mortality transitions: Examples from Latin America
Life Expectancy, 1900-1980, 4 LA countries (unequal in 1900; now
Life Expectancy, 1900-1980, 4 LA countries (unequal in 1900; now
Life expectancy, 150 countries: 1960, 1995
Life expectancy, 150 countries: 1960, 1995
Leading mortality crises in the twentieth century
Leading mortality crises in the twentieth century
Conclusions:
Conclusions:
Conclusions:
Conclusions:
Does HIV/AIDS contradict the epidemiological paradigm (see Bongaarts
Does HIV/AIDS contradict the epidemiological paradigm (see Bongaarts

: Mortality transition in Mexico, 1500-2000. : Department of History. : Mortality transition in Mexico, 1500-2000.ppt. zip-: 906 .

Mortality transition in Mexico, 1500-2000

Mortality transition in Mexico, 1500-2000.ppt
1 Mortality transition in Mexico, 1500-2000

Mortality transition in Mexico, 1500-2000

1500-1650: life expectancy worsened with Christian colonization: e0 < 20, fell as low as 5 years during worst times! 1650-1810: slow recovery punctuated by epidemics and famine, e0 ~15-25 years 1810-1920: significant improvements undermined by decades of war1810-20, 1846-68, 1910-20 1920: sustained rise in life expectancy

2 Mexico: life expectancy at birth over five centuries

Mexico: life expectancy at birth over five centuries

3 Five centuries of population change in Mexico (millions log scale)

Five centuries of population change in Mexico (millions log scale)

4 6 Factors to explain the health transition and rising life expectancy

6 Factors to explain the health transition and rising life expectancy

1. Public health 2. Medicine 3. Wealth and income 4. Nutrition 5. Behavior 6. Education

5 The epidemiological transition, 3 stages (Omran)

The epidemiological transition, 3 stages (Omran)

1. Pandemics 2. Receding pandemics 3. Degenerative diseases

6 Mexico: the last devasting epidemic occurred in 1918 (~250,000 deaths)

Mexico: the last devasting epidemic occurred in 1918 (~250,000 deaths)

*Huey zahuatl (smallpox) 1520 *tepitonzahuatl (measles) 1531 cocoliztli (Mexican typhus?) 1546-47 matlazahuatl (typhus?) 1576-77 famine and typhus 1692 typhus 1737-39 the great hunger 1786-88 typhus 1813 *cholera 1833 *influenza 1918 * = virgin soil epidemic

7 The Age of Pestilence and Famine: Colonial Mexico, 1640-1813

The Age of Pestilence and Famine: Colonial Mexico, 1640-1813

8 Example from Northern Mexico, 1630-1930

Example from Northern Mexico, 1630-1930

9 Mexico, 4 regions, 1680-1815

Mexico, 4 regions, 1680-1815

10 Charity campaign not begun until week nine of epidemic (1797)

Charity campaign not begun until week nine of epidemic (1797)

11 Intensity of mortality crises declined after mid-19th century

Intensity of mortality crises declined after mid-19th century

12 The revolution in life expectancy in 20th century Mexico

The revolution in life expectancy in 20th century Mexico

Civil war, 1910-17

13 The Mortality transition in Mexico: catching up with the USA

The Mortality transition in Mexico: catching up with the USA

14 Omrans epidemiological transition Mexico, cause of death: decline of

Omrans epidemiological transition Mexico, cause of death: decline of

parasitic, contagious; rise of circulatory, cancer, accidents

% of deaths by cause (other = ~25%) parasitic accidents/ year infectious circulatory respiratory digest cancer homicides 1930 47.0 1.9 16.0 4.0 0.7 4.1 1940 43.1 3.7 20.0 4.7 1.2 5.1 1950 34.6 6.2 20.7 5.1 2.0 5.9 1960 25.6 8.5 19.3 5.3 3.4 6.5 1970 23.1 10.5 21.8 5.6 4.0 7.2 1980 13.7 16.4 13.5 7.1 6.5 15.5 1990 9.7 19.8 10.5 7.9 10.1 13.9

15 1943-60 gains in life expectancy (8

1943-60 gains in life expectancy (8

8 yrs) ~doubled other years (4-4.8 years)

16 Timing of principal gains by age varied greatly from one decade to

Timing of principal gains by age varied greatly from one decade to

another.

Civil war, 1910-17

0: since 1940

Age: timing of gain

50+: 1943-60; 1983+

15-49: 1930-60, 1983+

5-14: 1930-60

1-4: 1930-80

17 6 factors for explaining the health transition and rising life

6 factors for explaining the health transition and rising life

expectancy: the case of Mexico

1. Public healthsubstantial efforts from 1919 2. Educationfrom the 1940s 3. Nutritionimproved significantly only from 1950s 4. Medicineimportant since the 1950s 5. Behaviordeaths from violence (homicides) dropped substantially in the 1960s, but accidents rose sharply 6. Wealth and incomeonly since the 1970s

18 Public health insurance has risen steady since 1950 & now covers 60%+

Public health insurance has risen steady since 1950 & now covers 60%+

of the population

Year Population (millions) % insured 1940 20 <1% 1950 26 4 1960 35 11 1970 48 25 1980 67 46 1990 81 59

19 Literacy (aged 10+) doubled 1900-30 and 1930-80

Literacy (aged 10+) doubled 1900-30 and 1930-80

20 Mexico won the race between population and grain supply, 1925-1985

Mexico won the race between population and grain supply, 1925-1985

21 Mexican agriculture won the race against population--1940-65

Mexican agriculture won the race against population--1940-65

population

corn

wheat

22 Food availability increase per capita by type: Mexico 1940-1960,

Food availability increase per capita by type: Mexico 1940-1960,

1960-1975

23 Social modernization in Mexico, 1970-2000

Social modernization in Mexico, 1970-2000

24 Mexican middle class emerged slowlysince 1950

Mexican middle class emerged slowlysince 1950

25 Infant mortality declined from 13% in 1950 to 2.5% in 2005 (still more

Infant mortality declined from 13% in 1950 to 2.5% in 2005 (still more

than 3 times the US rate of 0.7%).

26 6 significant infant mortality risks in Mexico, 1987-1991: base =

6 significant infant mortality risks in Mexico, 1987-1991: base =

10/1000

1. Mother less than 7 years of schooling 2.3x 2. Birth interval <18, >59 months 2.3x 3. Mothers age <19, >32 years 1.4x 4. Home has dirt floor; no water, sewage 1.4x 5. Fourth or higher birth 1.2x 6. Male birth 1.2x 7. Rural residence 1.05x Note: 1. no data available on mothers health, nutrition, access to pre-natal care, etc. 2. 1980-1995: infant mortality rates by educational levels scarcely changed; even though the overall rate declined by 1/3. Increasing educational levels of mothers cut IMR from 46 to 33/1000.

27 6 factors for explaining the health transition and rising life

6 factors for explaining the health transition and rising life

expectancy: the case of Mexico

1. Public healthsubstantial efforts from 1919 2. Educationfrom the 1940s, greatest 1970s 3. Nutritionimproved significantly only from 1950s 4. Medicineimportant since the 1950s 5. Behaviordeaths from violence (homicides) dropped substantially in the 1960s, but accidents rose sharply 6. Wealth and incomeonly since the 1970s

28 Mortality transitions: Examples from Latin America

Mortality transitions: Examples from Latin America

Earlier and faster in Argentina, Uruguay, Cuba, and Costa Rica Later and slower in Chile, Mexico, Brazil and Peru Slowest in Guatemala, much of Central America, and Haiti

29 Life Expectancy, 1900-1980, 4 LA countries (unequal in 1900; now

Life Expectancy, 1900-1980, 4 LA countries (unequal in 1900; now

converging)

30 Life expectancy, 150 countries: 1960, 1995

Life expectancy, 150 countries: 1960, 1995

31 Leading mortality crises in the twentieth century

Leading mortality crises in the twentieth century

32 Conclusions:

Conclusions:

France: 19th century: major advances for children 20th century: improvement for adults since 1970: improvements for elderly Mexico Age of pestilence continued to 1918 Major improvements since 1930 By 1980, differences between countries had narrowed greatly

33 Conclusions:

Conclusions:

Minimal levels of economic and social development are sufficient to initiate the fertility transition. Modest investments in preventive public health could improve quality of life and longevity in many regions of the globe. The demographic explosion is nearly over everywhere, except in Africa.

34 Does HIV/AIDS contradict the epidemiological paradigm (see Bongaarts

Does HIV/AIDS contradict the epidemiological paradigm (see Bongaarts

in PopDevReview 3/96)?

HIV/AIDS is a pandemic-- 20 million cases worldwide: 2/3rds in Africa, 20% in S & SE Asia. AIDS deaths rates will continue to rise, reaching, by 2005, 0.3-0.4 per thousand population world-wide. Behavioral change is the best hope; rates of increase in infection are slowing everywhere except in Asia.

Mortality transition in Mexico, 1500-2000
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