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THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE
THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE
Agenda
Agenda
UKRAINE
UKRAINE
UKRAINE (continued)
UKRAINE (continued)
UKRAINE (continued)
UKRAINE (continued)
UKRAINE (continued)
UKRAINE (continued)
Ukrainian History
Ukrainian History
Elites and elections
Elites and elections
Business Groups in Ukraine
Business Groups in Ukraine
BUSINESS GROUPS IN UKRAINE (continued)
BUSINESS GROUPS IN UKRAINE (continued)
Areas of Business Groups Competition*
Areas of Business Groups Competition*
Elites and elections (continued)
Elites and elections (continued)
UKRAINE WITHOUT KUCHMA 2000
UKRAINE WITHOUT KUCHMA 2000
Viktor Yuschenko
Viktor Yuschenko
Elites and Elections (continued)
Elites and Elections (continued)
Viktor Yanukovych
Viktor Yanukovych
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM
CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM
The great possibility of Yuschenko being elected is a real danger for
The great possibility of Yuschenko being elected is a real danger for
CAMPAIGN 2004
CAMPAIGN 2004
RESULTS
RESULTS
THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE
THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE
THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE
THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE
THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE
THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE
Yuschenko is the President of Ukraine Ukraine has become famous in all
Yuschenko is the President of Ukraine Ukraine has become famous in all
WHAT TO TAKE HOME
WHAT TO TAKE HOME
FOR MORE INFO
FOR MORE INFO

: The orange revolution and democratic change in Ucraine. : . : The orange revolution and democratic change in Ucraine.ppt. zip-: 944 .

The orange revolution and democratic change in Ucraine

The orange revolution and democratic change in Ucraine.ppt
1 THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE

THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE

2 Agenda

Agenda

What is Ukraine? An overview The Orange Revolution and its historical preconditions Who was ruling Ukraine? Politics and economy Why these elections were so important? What were the main issues of presidential campaign 2004? What is going to change in Ukraine? What to take home? Q&A

3 UKRAINE

UKRAINE

The biggest country in the East Central Europe: - territory: 603,5 thousand km2 - population: 47,280,800,000+ people A multiethnic country: more than 130 nationalities 24 oblasts + Autonomous Republic of Crimea exit to 2 seas: Black, Azov mountains: Carpathians, Crimean major rivers: Dnipro, Dnistro, Dunay, Prut, Bug, Donets Neighbors: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary (the EU), Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey (the future EU), Belarus, Russia, Georgia, (the CIS)

4 UKRAINE (continued)

UKRAINE (continued)

5 UKRAINE (continued)

UKRAINE (continued)

GDP growth: 12% in 2004 *Areas of strong specialization: mineral production, oil and energy products, chemical products, mechanical equipment, machines, electrical equipment, transport and road equipment, black metals, textiles, polymeric materials Main trade partners: CIS, EU, Africa, Asia FDI: USD 7761,5 mln

6 UKRAINE (continued)

UKRAINE (continued)

7 Ukrainian History

Ukrainian History

Kyiv Rus Cossacks military state Bohdan Khmelnitskiys Hetmanate Ukrainian Peoples Republic Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic Ukraine Have been re-divided among: Lithuania, Poland, Austro-Hungary, Russia, Romania, Czechoslovakia Have always been fighting for freedom

8 Elites and elections

Elites and elections

1991 presidential elections: Leonid Kravchuk. CPU apparatchiks + red directorate 1994 presidential elections: Leonid Kuchma Red director + business clans 1998 parliamentary elections: Communist party + red directorate

9 Business Groups in Ukraine

Business Groups in Ukraine

System Capital Management

Industrial Union Donbass

Interpipe

Pryvat

Interpipe: Key personality: Viktor Pinchuk, Kuchmas son-in-law. Personal wealth: USD1.5 bln. Political representation: Trudova Ukraina, ex-Head of NBU, ex-Minister of Economy Media assets controlled: ICTV, Ukrainian Media-Holding (newspapers, radio stations) Industrial Union of Donbass: Key person: Mr.Taruta. Personal wealth: USD1.2 bln. Political representation: ex-Prime Minister (Viktor Yanukovych), ex-minister of fuel and energy, ex-presidents advisor System Capital Management: Key person: Renat Akhmetov. Personal wealth: USD2.5 bln. Political representation: Regions of Ukraine Media assets controlled: TRC Ukraina, Internet web-sites Pryvat: Key person: Ihor Kolomoyskiy. Personal wealth: USD2.2 bln. Political representation: Trudova Ukraina, ex-head of Presidential Administration (Viktor Medvedchuk), ex-Head of NBU Media assets controlled by Medvedchuk: Inter, 1+1, newspapers, radio stations, Internet web-sites

10 BUSINESS GROUPS IN UKRAINE (continued)

BUSINESS GROUPS IN UKRAINE (continued)

STRENGTHS Strong influence on politics through political representation Control over major production areas in Ukraine Access to President Kuchma Control over media assets securing control over public opinion

WEAKNESSES Lack of consolidation (groups compete in business and political influence) Various extents of dependence on Kuchma Concentrated allocation (East of Ukraine: Dnepropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkov)

11 Areas of Business Groups Competition*

Areas of Business Groups Competition*

System Capital Management

Industrial Union of Donbass

Interpipe

Pryvat

Metals Metal Mining Coke

Metals Metal Mining Coke

Metals

Metals Metal Mining Coke

Pipes Oblenergos

Machine building

Pipes Ferro alloys Oblenergos Machine building

Ferro Alloys

Telecoms Mass Media

Telecoms

Mass Media

Telecoms

12 Elites and elections (continued)

Elites and elections (continued)

March 1999 the leader of opposition dies in a car crash October 1999 presidential elections: Leonid Kuchma VS Leonid KUCHMA Petro SYMONENKO (leader of Communists) (= Russian scenario: Yeltsin vs Ziuganov) Intrusion of Russian political technologists

13 UKRAINE WITHOUT KUCHMA 2000

UKRAINE WITHOUT KUCHMA 2000

Vyacheslav Chornovil Georgiy Gongadze REFERENDUM: Ukraine a presidential republic? The people said YES? Falsifications MELNICHENKOS TAPES Kuchma was selling missiles to Iraq? International pressure MASS PROTESTS: KUCHMAS IMPEACHMENT!?

14 Viktor Yuschenko

Viktor Yuschenko

Successful banker 19961999 - Head of the National Bank of Ukraine: Stopped inflation Introduced Hryvnya Avoided financial crisis of 1998 2000 Prime Minister: Achieved positive growth rate of 5.9% Eliminated barters Paid salary and pension debts Pressed the business groups Weaknesses: mildness, tendency to loosing momentum

15 Elites and Elections (continued)

Elites and Elections (continued)

2002 parliamentary elections: Nasha Ukraina, bloc of Viktor Yuschenko A SIGNAL FOR THE REGIME! Opposition fails to form a majority Viktor Medvedchuk becomes the Head of Presidential Administration

16 Viktor Yanukovych

Viktor Yanukovych

Head of the Donetsk State Administration Head of the Donetsk Oblast Council 2002-2004 - Prime Minister Increased economic growth to 12% Increased salaries and pensions Fought the crop and fuel crises Weaknesses: 2 criminal convictions, close links to unpopular regime and business groups

17 CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM

CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM

The last attempt of Kuchma to presume power after elections Constitution of 1996 PRESIDENT Prime Minister PARLIAMENT Proposed changes (2004) President PRIME MINISTER PARLIAMENT

18 The great possibility of Yuschenko being elected is a real danger for

The great possibility of Yuschenko being elected is a real danger for

the business groups Business groups unite their resources and influence to support Yanukovych Russia resumes its pressure

ON THE THRESHOLD OF ELECTIONS 2004

Funds (Renat Akhmetov) + Media (Viktor Pinchuk) + Russian polittechnologists (Viktor Medvedchuk) = growth of Yanukovychs rating from 4% to 30%

19 CAMPAIGN 2004

CAMPAIGN 2004

26 candidates Technical candidates Access to media and resources Rejected to most of the candidates but one Positioning of the major candidates Busy Prime Minister vs Peoples candidate Attempts at murdering the candidates Poisoning of Yuschenko vs Egg scandal of Yanukovych

Violations of electoral law: Falsifying signatures Using administrative resource Foreign intrusion (citizens of Russia supporting one of the candidates) Exceeding campaign financial limits Applying political technologies: Playing on differences between East and West of Ukraine Raising pensions and salaries inflation Preventing Yuschenko from coming to the Eastern regions Creating false images of candidates (Yuschenko - fascist)

20 RESULTS

RESULTS

21 THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE
22 THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE
23 THE ORANGE REVOLUTION and DEMOCRATIC CHANGE in UKRAINE
24 Yuschenko is the President of Ukraine Ukraine has become famous in all

Yuschenko is the President of Ukraine Ukraine has become famous in all

of the world Ukraine is going to be a parliamentary republic Ukraine has declared a course towards democratic reforms Representatives of ex-opposition replaced all of the key authorities The pressure of Russia has decreased Ukraine has cleared its external course: EU

RESULTS OF THE ORANGE REVOLUTION

25 WHAT TO TAKE HOME

WHAT TO TAKE HOME

The Orange Revolution is a result of many years evolution of Ukrainian politics and economy The Orange Revolution is the third democratic change of elites in Ukraine The Orange Revolution has reshaped Ukraines position in Europe and the CIS

26 FOR MORE INFO

FOR MORE INFO

www.pravda.com.ua www.bbc.co.uk/ukrainian www.cvk.gov.ua www.ukrstat.gov.ua www.president.gov.ua www.yuschenko.com.ua www.ya2004.com.ua

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