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Russian Economic History: An Open Area for Research
Russian Economic History: An Open Area for Research
Why Russian Economic History
Why Russian Economic History
Why Open Area for Research
Why Open Area for Research
HSE-NES Lab on Econ
HSE-NES Lab on Econ
Example 1: Stalin’s Deportations
Example 1: Stalin’s Deportations
Deportations by 1950, Number of people
Deportations by 1950, Number of people
How Large Are the Effects
How Large Are the Effects
Example 2: Gulag Archipelago
Example 2: Gulag Archipelago
Gulags in 1951, map of locations
Gulags in 1951, map of locations
Presidential Elections 1996, actual votes
Presidential Elections 1996, actual votes
How Large Are the Effects
How Large Are the Effects
Example 3: Governors in Tzarist Russia
Example 3: Governors in Tzarist Russia
What Do Such Studies Show
What Do Such Studies Show

Презентация: «Russian Economic History: An Open Area for Research». Автор: OZamulin. Файл: «Russian Economic History: An Open Area for Research.pptx». Размер zip-архива: 466 КБ.

Russian Economic History: An Open Area for Research

содержание презентации «Russian Economic History: An Open Area for Research.pptx»
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1 Russian Economic History: An Open Area for Research

Russian Economic History: An Open Area for Research

European University, St. Petersburg, Oct. 10. 2014

Simeon Djankov Rector, New Economic School Academic Advisor, HSE-NES Econ. History Lab

2 Why Russian Economic History

Why Russian Economic History

Rich imperial past Diversity in ethnicity and culture Plenty of natural experiments Agrarian reforms under Stolypin, 1906 The October revolution, 1917 The New Economic Policy, 1921- Deportations, 1937- Good statistical sources

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3 Why Open Area for Research

Why Open Area for Research

Largely populated by historians Lacks rigorous empirical work Recent advances in economic theory Institutional economics The influence of culture Economic growth Link between past and present Example: privatization

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4 HSE-NES Lab on Econ

HSE-NES Lab on Econ

History

Established in July 2014 Both economists and historians Main task: open the field to new researchers Two immediate tasks Create databases and make them public Do research

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5 Example 1: Stalin’s Deportations

Example 1: Stalin’s Deportations

The effects of Stalin’s deportations on trust Author: Roman Levkin, Duke University History Stalin deported 2.8 mln people to Siberia and Central Asia Some ethnic groups, e.g., Germans, Crimean Tatars, not rehabilitated In 1991, a referendum on the future of the Soviet Union In 2007, survey on trust in central authority (the President) Result: regions with many deportees do not trust central authority

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6 Deportations by 1950, Number of people

Deportations by 1950, Number of people

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7 How Large Are the Effects

How Large Are the Effects

A 1% increase in deportations decreases the percentage of votes in favor of the Soviet Union by 0.75% A 1% increase in deportations decreases the percentage of trust in the President by 5%

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8 Example 2: Gulag Archipelago

Example 2: Gulag Archipelago

The political legacy of the Gulag Archipelago Authors: Natalia Kapelko, Yandex, and Andrei Markevich, NES History June 27, 1929. Decree “On the Use of Labor of Convicted Criminals” 179 thousand prisoners in 1930 1.9 million in 1938, 2.5 million prisoners in 1951 158 Gulags operated in 1951 Result: Regions with Gulags vote anti-communist in 1996

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9 Gulags in 1951, map of locations

Gulags in 1951, map of locations

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10 Presidential Elections 1996, actual votes

Presidential Elections 1996, actual votes

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11 How Large Are the Effects

How Large Are the Effects

The past location of a Gulag camp in the neighborhood cut communist share of voters by 2 percentage points Yeltsin won by 54.4% of the vote, so a significant effect Would a Zyuganov win have changed Russia?

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12 Example 3: Governors in Tzarist Russia

Example 3: Governors in Tzarist Russia

Career Incentives of Governors in Late Tzarist Russia Authors: Gunes Gokman, NES, and Dmitry Kofanov, RANEPA History Career tracks of governors in 91 provinces during 1895-1914 Intensity of peasant revolts and worker strikes The central government rewarded better-performing governors in the peripheral provinces Promotion to Petersburg, State Council or Senate Result: Successful dealing with revolts triples the chance of promotion

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13 What Do Such Studies Show

What Do Such Studies Show

The effect of institutional choice on political outcomes, and from there on new institutions For example, Stalin’s atrocities in part prevented Zyuganov from returning Russia to communism Hysteresis in policy choices too For example, regions which did not support agrarian reform in 1905-1906 also failed to support privatization in the 1990s What is Russia’s economic path

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